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okonu

Interesting Anecdotal At Singing Pig

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This is fascinating

so - all these second property people who ,lets say, jumped from a £80k terrace to a £160k semi are now realising that the property boom is not such a good thing after all.

This does all make sense to me. I am seeing a flood of three bed properties on the market that are sticking - they just won't move.

Also many houses (large detached) on the 2 'elite' roads in my area. I thought these people were just being clever and cashing in before it all goes belly up but maybe they are the overstretched ones?

BUT terraces are sticking and I couldn't understand this because they were prime FTB property. Maybe there just aren't any FTB and the only terraces that are selling are to those who have been lucky enough to seel their larger house.

The market does seem a little eratic round here but this could explain it.

The comment on rental vlaue was also very interesting.

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There are some switched on people at that site - yieldman/ rialto etc.

Yes, this could be a very interesting trend, and not one seen before AFAIK (i.e. it really is different this time... but not in a good way) People trying to get out their equity from their house, but rather than STR, downsizing, and not a well thought out strategy, but reaction to events (unsustainable debt). Maybe high unemployment won't be required for crash...

For those waiting to buy, I think the message is to jump a couple of rungs at least, and massively compress the price between FTB property and a couple of rungs up.

Whoopsie - I was a student at that time in Oxford - coincidence! Rented for two years out of four (could have had 3 years in college, but was with a great group of house-sharers) One just off Angel Meadow (Cowley) and one over in West Oxford - that bijou little Osney island. Wonder if "The Major" (legendary student landlord) is still around... (he had about 50 properties, at good value, well looked after. But you needed to be recommended by previous tenants and interviewed by him - he was a ferocious snob. Luckily one of my housemates was suitably upper-class...

Edited by okonu

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Guest consa

This is quite a revelation, we need to understand whats going on here.

1) People are downsizing to free themselves up financially

2) People are buying their overpriced properties to allow them to do this <_<

Q1 - Does this mean we can have a complete market without FTB?

Q2 - Who is buying the most expensive ones?

Q3 - What is the projected scenario or outcome?

Q4 - Will Christmas debts feed this?

Q5 - What will this do to the HPI stats?

There is probably some more questions to ask but Nationwide have already stated that they expect negative YOY in early 2006.

I think we can safely say we know where it's going, I'm gonna have plenty of rashers of bacon on my Turkey!!

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Magdalen - George Osbourne was a fresher in my last year - knew him vaguely as in the Magdalen Beer Society together. He wasn't obnoxious.

Hrm, just by chance you wouldn't happen to have gone to one of his parties? Dennis Skinner and a couple of newspapers would love to talk to you, they'd probably be enough money to buy a mansion opposite Blair, though personally I find those coke jibes 'out of line' B)

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This is quite a revelation, we need to understand whats going on here.

1) People are downsizing to free themselves up financially

2) People are buying their overpriced properties to allow them to do this <_<

(1) is correct,

(2) is that they are trying to sell...

Buying Bear - finalists wouldn't be seen dead at a fresher's party, well, not unless going fresher hunting in the first couple of weeks B)

He could hold his beer, was intelligent, and wasn't a *****. Didn't have "pushy fresher" syndrome, like many wannabe student politicians. Besides, a current labour MP was also in the MBS (basically the college drinking/ dining society, not big, not clever, but hey, we were young) at the same time, so any beans will already have been spilt...

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Doesn't this bode badly for young FTBs, if these downsizers are taking the traditional FTB properties and keeping the prices out of reach for true first timers?

The ladder currently appears to not require FTBs.

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Guest consa

Their way out of the mess and to keep the partner happy:-

"Lets get a bridging loan/another mortgage so we can move, then we can rent this big house out and cover the excessive mortgage on it as it doesn't seem to be selling at the moment dear"

"That is a fantastic Idea - then we can just keep them both until we retire and then subsidise our pensions"

Brilliant!!

Is this faulty logic?

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Doesn't this bode badly for young FTBs, if these downsizers are taking the traditional FTB properties and keeping the prices out of reach for true first timers?

The ladder currently appears to not require FTBs.

No, not necessarily. A lot of these folks will be well in over their heads. It will not take much to push them over the edge.

They may well struggle to sell their current (large) property so could well end up carrying a lot of debt with them. In effect negative equity. A number of things could cause this scenario, including;

1. They need to down quickly because the repayments are killing them, so take the first low offer;

2. The current value, on a falling market, just does not cover their debts, CC + MEW = a very large hangover.

So FTB properties could yet end up on the market as repos. and do not forget that the FTB end of the market could well be over supplied at the moment with investment properties. All those new build flats are prime FTB properties!

When the market crashes it all crashes! ;)

Overall this is great news.

1. As we have all known for sometime the market is well and truely hammered with many OO well over stretched, and

2. We now no that the FBT part of the market is still not good despite all the spin. With people down sizing the figures are skewed.

Phase two of the crash is getting underway!

Repo will be out in Jan from the CML. They should be very interesting. More cause for concern in the board rooms of many a UK bank.

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Bubb --- arrggghh. You've probably killed that thread stone dead now, as now the SP'ers may "circle the wagons" - what was interesting was the way that more and more posters were saying "oh, yeah, that's happening round me too" And many of those guys obviously do spend alot of time on property, so their anecdotes are valuable.

Softly softly catchee monkey...

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"Bubb --- arrggghh. You've probably killed that thread stone dead now, as now the SP'ers may "circle the wagons"

Catchee what?

The wild-minded idiots on Sad-pig are headed for a big fall.

What do you hope to acheive with your approach?

Information. Not all are wild minded, but all are obsessed with property. Listening in on their conversations is interesting. Note how the focus is now all on leafletting & buying up distressed properties, couple of years ago would have been on off plan. OK the remortgaging to an unrealistic value is stupid, we know it is stupid, but the fact that so many property bugs have switched to a very bearish technique (buying distressed inventory as buyer of last resort) is a "good" sign.

In HK (property market I am much more familiar with) the large numbers of speculators are arguably not such a bad thing. They give liquidity to the market, which then seems to be much quicker to clear (and prices adjust up or down accordingly) Of course, it helps that property in HK is much more of a commodity, as locations are limited, and flats pretty similar, just differing in view/ age.

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Guest muttley

An interesting thread from the Sinking Pig,but 50% sounds WAY too high to me.

A house near me sold for 550k in 2003 and came back onto the market at 850K this year.It is now SSTC,and I heard that the buyers are able to proceed.They will probably have got a discount,but the original buyers will surely have made a substantial profit.

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"Bubb --- arrggghh. You've probably killed that thread stone dead now, as now the SP'ers may "circle the wagons"

Catchee what?

The wild-minded idiots on Sad-pig are headed for a big fall.

What do you hope to acheive with your approach?

HOW MUCH longer can they go on fooling themselves, and duping hapless newbies?

Hey Dr,

That is the nearest thing to a rant I seen from you! You OK! Mind you the SP's are full of it!

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Doesn't this bode badly for young FTBs, if these downsizers are taking the traditional FTB properties and keeping the prices out of reach for true first timers?

The ladder currently appears to not require FTBs.

Hrm, that cannot continue, the whole market will go into reverse, if a whole group of people are downsizing thus taking up former FTB property you have to ask who exactly is buying their 2nd or 3rd rung properties? By implication if the current owners cannot afford their own homes then what hope is there for other people? They are no doubt selling to greater fools who are putting themselves into a more precarious position than those selling up.

The market is canabalising itself, they should start a new show called "Property Deescalator".

Edited by BuyingBear

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Hrm, that cannot continue, the whole market will go into reverse, if a whole group of people are downsizing thus taking up former FTB property you have to ask who exactly is buying their 2nd or 3rd rung properties? By implication if the curren owners cannot afford their own homes then what hope is there for other people? They are no doubt selling to greater falls who are putting themselves into a more precarious position than those selling up.

The market is canabalising itself, they should start a new show called "Property Deescalator".

Actually, round here, what is happening is this:

The people downsizing are the ones whose kids are now at uni.

They sell their mortgage free £2-3m house and buy one 1-1.5m.

Their house is bought by someone trading up (usually with city bonus) from 1-1.5m

The downsizers use the capital released to help therir kids get on the ladder.

The reason the people are downsizing is they do not want to give any more money to the government when they ie.

Call me a liar - but sorry that IS what is happenning - round here.

:)

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Do you seriously believe that there are enough people earning city bonuses in the £1 - £1.5 million range to affect the wider market??

you must be mental.

I have tried consistently to only give an opinion about where I am - SW London.

I am not mental.

:)

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Call me a liar - but sorry that IS what is happenning - round here.

:)

So provided a significant chunk of the UK population recieve a City bonus in the order of £2 mil the market is fine, perfectly sustainable :) One would hope that the fund managers clever enough to recieve that sort of bonus know an inflated asset bubble when they see one, though granted some may be somewhat hapless and they got lucky this year.

The problem is that all pyramid schemes require new fools with new money, recycling money within doesn't sustain the creaking weight of the structure, a handful of people with bonuses cannot sustain a whole market, especially not after it has been spent, some of it undoubtedly on other things like gold.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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