Roman Roady Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not well reported (surprise) but this dropped to its lowest value of 554 yesterday. Last weeks low of 559 reported in the link below. http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/09/the-shipping-news-brutal-as-per-usual/ Batten down the hatches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) ^Thank you for the link. It is well worth reading that article. Hmm, Does anyone hypothesize that the lowering of the oil price wasn't just for the Russians/IS, but also putting the reverse thrusters on the BDI? ^ This chart updates, so for the future reference it is at 709 pts on 11th February 2015, lower than in 2008. Dryships, which acts like the BDI is at 97c --- If things aren't profitable to ship, then they won't be shipped at all. The end of deflationary spirals is probably marked by periods of shortages, and no supplies. The price will rise as existing stocks are depleted, and only then, supply will come back. Have you all got everything you need? Edited February 11, 2015 by 200p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) . Edited February 11, 2015 by 200p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 How much are the banks on the hook for with these giant ships? A baltic dry bailout on the horizon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) Commodity bubble and bust right there. Quite beautiful isnt it. Demand > supply 2005-2008 Supply > demand 2008---> follows the classic bubble pro-forma / duration for bubble & bust. Commods, gold, silver and oil (only gold has yet to fully complete back to sub - $1000. Should occur as US yield curve starts to steepen again) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_Rodrigue Edited February 11, 2015 by R K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A surfeit of ships. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You don't need ships to export digital services. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 "deflation" panic starting to ease up now. Will bottom over next few months (with noddy media cpi low headlines) and be forgotten by the autumn. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61846764528 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver surfer Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 ^Thank you for the link. It is well worth reading that article. Hmm, Does anyone hypothesize that the lowering of the oil price wasn't just for the Russians/IS, but also putting the reverse thrusters on the BDI? ^ This chart updates, so for the future reference it is at 709 pts on 11th February 2015, lower than in 2008. Dryships, which acts like the BDI is at 97c --- If things aren't profitable to ship, then they won't be shipped at all. The end of deflationary spirals is probably marked by periods of shortages, and no supplies. The price will rise as existing stocks are depleted, and only then, supply will come back. Have you all got everything you need? I don't doubt the underlying message of falling commodity prices (I'm nursing losses on my Antofagasta shares!), but we need to be a bit careful with the Baltic index because it reflects many factors besides the demand for shipping. First is the supply of ships which has never been higher, and it also reflects the cost of shipping which is fast declining with oil costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Commodity bubble and bust right there. Quite beautiful isnt it. Demand > supply 2005-2008 Supply > demand 2008---> follows the classic bubble pro-forma / duration for bubble & bust. Commods, gold, silver and oil (only gold has yet to fully complete back to sub - $1000. Should occur as US yield curve starts to steepen again) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_Rodrigue gold, a monetary commodity, will track the real interest rate(inversely) in a free market. By that measure we should be at record gold prices. Iow we don't have a free market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) gold, a monetary commodity, will track the real interest rate(inversely) in a free market. By that measure we should be at record gold prices. Iow we don't have a free market It does. You need to look at the 10yr real yield (10yr TIPS will do as a reasonable proxy. gold bubble very clear) As the curve steepens again gold will tank. . Nothing surprising in this. 100% g/teed etc Eventually gold will revert to $500-$700 long run avg of course. Edited February 11, 2015 by R K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I long for £250 an ounce gold (as do lots of other people!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfig Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A nice £250 house would be better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It does. You need to look at the 10yr real yield (10yr TIPS will do as a reasonable proxy. gold bubble very clear) As the curve steepens again gold will tank. . Nothing surprising in this. 100% g/teed etc Eventually gold will revert to $500-$700 long run avg of course. the average lifespan of a reserve currency is 100 years. Gold will go to infinity(dollar hyperinflation or repudiation) wrt the dollar before it gets to $200 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 the average lifespan of a reserve currency is 100 years. Gold will go to infinity(dollar hyperinflation or repudiation) wrt the dollar before it gets to $200 Whatever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Whatever. actually I was wrong. the average life of a reserve currency is 40 years. you feeing lucky? http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/10/Reserve%20Currency%20Status.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 The thing to bear in mind with the Baltic dry is that it is a LEADING indicator...one of only a few. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 actually I was wrong. the average life of a reserve currency is 40 years. you feeing lucky? http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/10/Reserve%20Currency%20Status.png Indeed. For the dollar to survive in its current form we would need totally unique events to occur. It truly would be different this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steppenpig Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I don't doubt the underlying message of falling commodity prices (I'm nursing losses on my Antofagasta shares!), but we need to be a bit careful with the Baltic index because it reflects many factors besides the demand for shipping. First is the supply of ships which has never been higher, and it also reflects the cost of shipping which is fast declining with oil costs. Apparently 2014 was Hamburg harbour's busiest year ever. That will also be specifically affected by german manufacturing and trade strength of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 "deflation" panic starting to ease up now. Will bottom over next few months (with noddy media cpi low headlines) and be forgotten by the autumn. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61846764528 Well Carney may shake things up at inflation rrport which i think is tomorrow. I suppose it would be an opportunity to tell participants not to focus on CPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Keep an eye on the vessel count in the region of the Strait of Malacca: http://www.marinetraffic.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Malacca Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
200p Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 (edited) I don't doubt the underlying message of falling commodity prices (I'm nursing losses on my Antofagasta shares!), but we need to be a bit careful with the Baltic index because it reflects many factors besides the demand for shipping. First is the supply of ships which has never been higher, and it also reflects the cost of shipping which is fast declining with oil costs. Good point. As the cost of shipping is low, perhaps the margins are healthy with the new lower oil price. There were some worries with Dryships, last year DryShips plays down ‘going concern’ view from auditors George Economou-led owner is confident of breathing space on loans worth almost $1.25bn that have covenant breaches http://www.tradewindsnews.com/weekly/333231/dryships-plays-down-going-concern-view-from-auditors Feb 2014 And more recently DryShips' (DRYS) results were not strong in the third quarter. The company, however, reported some improvement in revenue, but its earnings were not up to the mark. However, its earnings beat analysts’ estimates. The company believes that it can improve its performance in the future on the back of positive trends in the market. It is now focused on maintaining a strong liquidity position. Let's take a look at its prospects http://www.gurufocus.com/news/307477/dryships-improving-business-points-toward-better-times-in-the-long-run- Jan 2015 Edited February 11, 2015 by 200p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Apparently 2014 was Hamburg harbour's busiest year ever. That will also be specifically affected by german manufacturing and trade strength of course. Weak Euro...not all bad news for the Germans! Its paid for re-unification. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkkandrew Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Weak Euro...not all bad news for the Germans! Its paid for re-unification. With what? Sudetenland? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Now down 2.35% in one day ...down to 540. Down nearly 31% this year and nearly nearly 51 % for the year to date. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND I remember that Robert Peston first reported a similar drop in 2008 as recalled below. http://www.moneyscience.com/pg/blog/RobertPestonBlog/read/692092/what-is-baltic-saying-about-global-slowdown Now those of you who have lived with me through the amazing ups and (mainly) downs of the global economy in the past decade may recall one of my proudest journalistic minutes: an appearance on the News at Ten in the autumn of 2008 when I sententiously declared that the then collapse in the Baltic was the canary in the coal mine, that it showed the banking crisis was turning into a global recession. That was, of course, what was happening. So should we be just as worried by this Baltic meltdown? Well it certainly shows, as the oil price collapse does, that conditions in the world's most important manufacturing economy, China, are probably weaker than official stats indicate (no real revelation there, you may say). But we cannot properly judge that weakness until the new year holidays and factory shutdowns are over. That said, Baltic blues will be seized on as supporting evidence by those worried we are entering a new and depressed era of deflation. 2008 was a much more dramatic fall, but the BDI is much lower now than the bottom of 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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