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longgone

Brace For A House Price Crash And You Won't Get Caught Out

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Pigs might fly more like....

The pigs crashed several years ago.

The chart on the front page is not lying.

The tory pre election "recovery" will have to be paid for by yours and your childrens future, and still it wont stop nominal prices falling again, the london mega bubble has ensured that.

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How do you reconcile that with constantly posting asking prices well above those levels?

Nominal asking prices up...real ( inflation linked) asking prices down

Unfortunately, unless you were chinese, russian, french, held gold from 2005, got free money from the BoE....your wages/savings/money have been devalued and it's almost impossible to buy a house now.

Yes, that';s right folks, the government made it possible for everyone else but the british to buy.

Now Russia is gone, the Chinese are struggling, The euro will be devalued and even for foreigners london prices are silly nominal prices will have to collapse again now.

You know that though, right ?

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How do you reconcile that with constantly posting asking prices well above those levels?

P.S. I post bemoaning the fact the Osbornes insane FLS/HTB schemes have pushed up asking prices to insane levels ( relative to British peoples wages ) when they were starting to be getting sensible again 2 years ago and buying a house looked almost like a sane thing to do. We've seen asking prices for bog stanbard 4 bed houses on mediocre houses in areas you couldnt pay me to live in go from 200K to 300K in the same of 12 months. Even the crazy 1999-2007 bubble took 6 years before we say that sort of rise.

I can afford to buy a house any time I like, I choose not to, it is high risk and renting is such good value.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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How do you reconcile that with constantly posting asking prices well above those levels?

Exactly i'm seeing prices higher since 2007, to tell me otherwise is wrong.

This website was formed to expect a house price crash within a few years, quite clearly myself and anyone who thought as much were wrong and have suffered for it.

If i could turn back time i'd have bought in 2005 as prices of property im interested in were £40-50K cheaper then.

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Exactly i'm seeing prices higher since 2007, to tell me otherwise is wrong.

If your wages had kept up with inflation you'd be easily able to afford to buy.

If you'd bought gold in 2005 you'd be living in a mansion.

If you'd invested in Euros in 2006, you'd have bought 2 years ago and slept well in your bed.

If you were a saver from 2007, the if you ignore London, your compounds interest savings will have beaten the housing market hands down.

House prices relative to the price of goods have plummeted since 2007.

Your wages are the problem.

The government really wanted to kick start a new boom, but they are so out of touch with reality that I dont think they have any realisation just how badly off most of the country actually are.

They must be hoping for some sort of miracle recovery in wages, but with deflation looming, the deficit not really budging, the debt increasing and oil prices collapsed then this looks even more unlikely.

The upshot of all that is...at some point nominal prices will collapse. My opinion now is that when the london mega bubble has collapsed, there will be no one moving in to london to buy and no one moving out of london to support prices in the shires/S.E. When that happens it's game over for nominal prices. The V.I.s will tell you London is different....sorry, mathematics doesn't change for wishful thinkers. The russian buyers must be gone now after the collapse of the Rubble. China is struggling, now we see the Euro being devalued.

It's game over.

I wont buy now till we see nominal prices collapse.

If your savings kept up with inflation since 2007, well done, give yourself a gold star, at some point you will benefit for it.

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If your wages had kept up with inflation you'd be easily able to afford to buy.

If you'd bought gold in 2005 you'd be living in a mansion.

If you'd invested in Euros in 2006, you'd have bought 2 years ago and slept well in your bed.

If you were a saver from 2007, the if you ignore London, your compounds interest savings will have beaten the housing market hands down.

House prices relative to the price of goods have plummeted since 2007.

Your wages are the problem.

The government really wanted to kick start a new boom, but they are so out of touch with reality that I dont think they have any realisation just how badly off most of the country actually are.

They must be hoping for some sort of miracle recovery in wages, but with deflation looming, the deficit not really budging, the debt increasing and oil prices collapsed then this looks even more unlikely.

The upshot of all that is...at some point nominal prices will collapse. My opinion now is that when the london mega bubble has collapsed, there will be no one moving in to london to buy and no one moving out of london to support prices in the shires/S.E. When that happens it's game over for nominal prices. The V.I.s will tell you London is different....sorry, mathematics doesn't change for wishful thinkers. The russian buyers must be gone now after the collapse of the Rubble. China is struggling, now we see the Euro being devalued.

It's game over.

I wont buy now till we see nominal prices collapse.

If your savings kept up with inflation since 2007, well done, give yourself a gold star, at some point you will benefit for it.

you seem to think every area is the same , i could have easily doubled my money from 2011 to now just by buying a house

this website was correct in 2007 , everthing after is rubbish (for the se and london anyway)

Edited by longgone

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you seem to think every area is the same , i could have easily doubled my money from 2011 to now just by buying a house

this website was correct in 2007 , everthing after is rubbish (for the se and london anyway)

Yeah, every area is different. I did say I was excluding London from my above comment.

London is different in 1 sense....it's massively over heated, massive over valued and the idiots there seem to think the good times will last for ever. It is in mega bubble territory. It has been pushed so high there will now be no avoiding a collapse in nominal prices there.

London prices are so far out of whack with any sort of reality, you might as well wait...you probably have no other choice.

The graph on the front page is not lying.

The HPC started in 2007.

We are still below the trend line.

The government have made things worse with their interference.

No investment bubble can defy reality forever.

Take a lesson from history:

http://www.sovereignman.com/finance/how-isaac-newton-went-flat-broke-chasing-a-stock-bubble-13268/

"Britain’s most celebrated scientist was not immune to the monetary charms of the South Sea Company, and in early 1720 he profited handsomely from his stake. "

"Having cashed in his chips, he then watched with some perturbation as stock in the company continued to rise."

"In the words of Lord Overstone, no warning on earth can save people determined to grow suddenly rich."

"Newton went on to repurchase a good deal more South Sea Company shares at more than three times the price of his original stake, and then proceeded to lose £20,000 (which, in 1720, amounted to almost all his life savings)."

"The chart of the South Sea Company’s stock price, and effectively of Newton’s emotional journey from greed to satisfaction and then from envy and more greed, ending in despair, is shown above."

If Sir Isaac Newton, a clever, man can succumb to investment mania, then 1000's of desperate immigrant and sub-prime foreign buyers certainly can too.

Sometimes it's best to just wait....

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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If your wages had kept up with inflation you'd be easily able to afford to buy.

If you'd bought gold in 2005 you'd be living in a mansion.

If you'd invested in Euros in 2006, you'd have bought 2 years ago and slept well in your bed.

If you were a saver from 2007, the if you ignore London, your compounds interest savings will have beaten the housing market hands down.

House prices relative to the price of goods have plummeted since 2007.

Your wages are the problem.

The government really wanted to kick start a new boom, but they are so out of touch with reality that I dont think they have any realisation just how badly off most of the country actually are.

They must be hoping for some sort of miracle recovery in wages, but with deflation looming, the deficit not really budging, the debt increasing and oil prices collapsed then this looks even more unlikely.

The upshot of all that is...at some point nominal prices will collapse. My opinion now is that when the london mega bubble has collapsed, there will be no one moving in to london to buy and no one moving out of london to support prices in the shires/S.E. When that happens it's game over for nominal prices. The V.I.s will tell you London is different....sorry, mathematics doesn't change for wishful thinkers. The russian buyers must be gone now after the collapse of the Rubble. China is struggling, now we see the Euro being devalued.

It's game over.

I wont buy now till we see nominal prices collapse.

If your savings kept up with inflation since 2007, well done, give yourself a gold star, at some point you will benefit for it.

Im getting paid £475 for doing nothing other then lying on my bed and ordering room service in a hotel in Tanzania today and probably through until Monday my wages are not the problem. Ludicrously high prices that haven't crashed are the problem (which you agree with) ... peoples wages are set by the market so won't go up by 100% in a globalised market ..... UK property prices are not set by free markets thus they are they problem.

The pound is almost back to where it was pre crash v the Euro and i do sometimes get paid in USD and Euros, but i also have some NZD and have lost a decent sum in the last 2 days holding on to them. So unless you can use hindsight most people aren't going to pick the right day to buy and sell.

The price of the basket of goods has risen so most people have less disposable income to spend, but the inflation corrected prices of real houses vs chocolate houses as i once read on here many years ago is irrelevant when one gets paid in GBP.

I am a saver and my compound savings rate since 2008 is about 8% after tax but i didnt have the entire price of a house saved up then so in real term its several thousand pounds at best, house prices have gone up by 20% since then in the region im looking thus about £40000, so that 35K that i'm down.

But even the London mega bubble will have to drop 50% to get to 2007 idiot bubble prices which were so fck outrageous they helped bring down the global economy.

So you see if we get a 20% drop it'll only be back to around 2005 prices for me, something which in hindsight i'd take.

Whilst i agree with you that its game over, I think its game over for averagely paid people for a very long time, unless prices half which i just can't see happening.

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"Ludicrously high prices that haven't crashed are the problem (which you agree with)"

Please don't put words in my mouth. I've not said that, I am saying the exact opposite.

I've said the UK housing market HAS collapsed in real terms since 2007 and givn all the conditions this collapse is going to restart...about tea time tomorrow.

£But even the London mega bubble will have to drop 50% to get to 2007 idiot bubble prices which were so fck outrageous they helped bring down the global economy."

50% would take them back to 2004 prices I believe. This is eminently possible in London. An over shoot could take them further down. Most of the UK was at the 2004 ( when prices were already silly ) level since 2008 until the london mega bubble and government lunacy pushed prices up around 10% in some areas outside London,

Eventually everything evens out, you just need to decide when best to buy.No one can help you with that.

Sure, maybe you missed out in 2008...but prices weren't affordable to UK wage earners then and as you point out, still aren't. Nothing points to massive house price rises. Plenty points to a massive collapse in London and the S.E. which should force down prices form Birmigham downwards again.

Patience is a virtue.

Are you telling me you are happy that the graph on the front page is accurate for the last crash and two before that , but not this one ?

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I'm seeing nominal prices stuck around ~2003ish.

I'm seeing transaction on the floor since 2006.

Prices round northamptonshire were stuck at 2004 level for 4 years.

Then the london mega bubble effect took hold last year....pushing up selling prices to near 2007 peak ( 7% off I think last time I looked ). Asking prices were 30% above 2007 peak, so who's actually buying is beyond me. Sales volumes went up but looked to have stalled.

Sa I said, when the london mega bubble crumbles so do the prices all around.

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"Ludicrously high prices that haven't crashed are the problem (which you agree with)"

Please don't put words in my mouth. I've not said that, I am saying the exact opposite.

I've said the UK housing market HAS collapsed in real terms since 2007 and givn all the conditions this collapse is going to restart...about tea time tomorrow.

Patience is a virtue.

Are you telling me you are happy that the graph on the front page is accurate for the last crash and two before that , but not this one ?

But wages arent going to rise by amounts needed to make the exact opposite happen, quite clearly if everyone got a 50% payrise then prices would be looking closer to long term average.

I believe that chart is using House prices versus CPI/RPI, im saying in relation to wages and wages have barely gone up since then.

And my patience has well and truly left the building thus, I will pay £200K for a crappy 3 bed house that at the moment is selling for £240K, to me such a place should cost about £140K as the market will remain too unpredictable for a long time yet.

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But wages arent going to rise by amounts needed to make the exact opposite happen, quite clearly if everyone got a 50% payrise then prices would be looking closer to long term average.

I believe that chart is using House prices versus CPI/RPI, im saying in relation to wages and wages have barely gone up since then.

And my patience has well and truly left the building thus, I will pay £200K for a crappy 3 bed house that at the moment is selling for £240K, to me such a place should cost about £140K as the market will remain too unpredictable for a long time yet.

prices round my way went from your standard 3 bed semi at 220-250k to 375 425k in a mere 18 months !!

i saw buyers pay 300 for a place and put it back for sale the next day after completion for 425k and go under offer the same week . FuC*ing crazy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html/svr/3102;jsessionid=6759803E709B9031EDAF69EF7EB2E5BF?prop=44962562&sale=51255251&country=england

Edited by longgone

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But wages arent going to rise by amounts needed to make the exact opposite happen, quite clearly if everyone got a 50% payrise then prices would be looking closer to long term average.

And that's why it's all going to collapse.

This time there is no where to run.

If Newton were alive today, he'd be buying a house in London now.

Good luck, there are no guarantees in life and at the end of the day, t's just a s**ty house, life is more than bricks and mortar, life is people, friends, familly, children, happiness, love, self respect. kindness, empathy, thought.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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And that's why it's all going to collapse.

This time there is no where to run.

If Newton were alive today, he'd be buying a house in London now.

Good luck, there are no guarantees in life and at the end of the day, t's just a s**ty house, life is more than bricks and mortar, life is people, friends, familly, children, happiness, love, self respect. kindness, empathy, thought.

Yes but for kids a house offers stability which helps them become content decent adults.

And mine has moved 3 times and she's only 4. To which i can thank Gidiot. There must be millions of kids in the same situation.

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Yes but for kids a house offers stability which helps them become content decent adults.

Debt offers no stability for anyone !!!!!

I have two children and I rent. They are very happy children. If I have to move for work, we can up sticks tomorrow.

You've been reading too many "Womans Own" magazines I think.

Who says children need stability of a debt fueled house ? Wouldnt be them pushing the debt would it ? It's a big world out there you're probably nor preparing your children for it very well if you stay in one over-indebted house all their lives.

Look past the end of your nose and think for yourself, for goodness sake.

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prices round my way went from your standard 3 bed semi at 220-250k to 375 425k in a mere 18 months !!

i saw buyers pay 300 for a place and put it back for sale the next day after completion for 425k and go under offer the same week . FuC*ing crazy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html/svr/3102;jsessionid=6759803E709B9031EDAF69EF7EB2E5BF?prop=44962562&sale=51255251&country=england

2013 sale states "A family home requiring complete modernisation throughout", which appears to have been done for the resale so the figures and statement are somewhat misleading.

http://www.humphreyandbrand.co.uk/property/bankside-drive-thames-ditton-2/

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P.S. I post bemoaning the fact the Osbornes insane FLS/HTB schemes have pushed up asking prices to insane levels ( relative to British peoples wages ) when they were starting to be getting sensible again 2 years ago and buying a house looked almost like a sane thing to do. We've seen asking prices for bog stanbard 4 bed houses on mediocre houses in areas you couldnt pay me to live in go from 200K to 300K in the same of 12 months. Even the crazy 1999-2007 bubble took 6 years before we say that sort of rise.

I can afford to buy a house any time I like, I choose not to, it is high risk and renting is such good value.

I can afford to buy a house any time I like, I choose not to, it is high risk and renting is such good value.

I hear that.

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2013 sale states "A family home requiring complete modernisation throughout", which appears to have been done for the resale so the figures and statement are somewhat misleading.

http://www.humphreyandbrand.co.uk/property/bankside-drive-thames-ditton-2/

there where loads of property like this that came up , i do not keep the full post codes written down , but this one i did remember , i think we can both agree 125k worth of work was never done maybe 15k !

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Debt offers no stability for anyone !!!!!

I have two children and I rent. They are very happy children. If I have to move for work, we can up sticks tomorrow.

You've been reading too many "Womans Own" magazines I think.

Who says children need stability of a debt fueled house ? Wouldnt be them pushing the debt would it ? It's a big world out there you're probably nor preparing your children for it very well if you stay in one over-indebted house all their lives.

Look past the end of your nose and think for yourself, for goodness sake.

Personally speaking my childs father wouldn't have had a penny of debt, im self employed and no one will give me a mortgage, i can also buy with cash tomorrow if i desired.

My kids moved 3 times, and is aged 4. I can get away with it as she's young but that many moves wouldnt be good for her over the next 4 years.

You've clearly not had problems with landlords (inc. selling up) and have had decent property, i havent.

Whilst i've no doubt there are decent landlords and property my experience tells me they're not the majority thus lots of people will end up with ones who are to55ers.

Edited by Samboy

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I have kids under 10, moved house numerous times for my job, never bothered them, if kids are loved and happy and you just treat it as an adventure your fine. Its an archaic idea you will never need to move house in this working climate. Im now eyeing up some big paying tasty jobs overseas and I know my kids will soak it, I even relish dropping them into a foreign language environment.

This you need a house to have babies crap is just more propaganda to "fear" you into debt. If anything I would suggest you do travel about a bit when they are young it'll give them a more varied perspective

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