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Bba Lending Figures For December 2014


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35,700 new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month

Down from 36,700 last month.

full data are here:

http://www.bba.org.uk/news/press-releases/december-2014-figures-for-the-high-street-banks

From the report at the link:

"In December, compared with a year previously, house purchase approvals were 24% lower, remortgaging down 20% and equity withdrawal 32% down."

Bear snacks.

Edited by InlikeFlynn
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35,700 new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month

Down from 36,700 last month.

full data are here:

http://www.bba.org.uk/news/press-releases/december-2014-figures-for-the-high-street-banks

From the report at the link:

"In December, compared with a year previously, house purchase approvals were 24% lower, remortgaging down 20% and equity withdrawal 32% down."

Bear snacks.

Tick-tock... :)

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35,700 new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month

Down from 36,700 last month.

full data are here:

http://www.bba.org.uk/news/press-releases/december-2014-figures-for-the-high-street-banks

From the report at the link:

"In December, compared with a year previously, house purchase approvals were 24% lower, remortgaging down 20% and equity withdrawal 32% down."

Bear snacks.

Mirrors the slow down in sales commission at Foxtons assuming Foxtons market shrare steady.

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"In December, compared with a year previously, house purchase approvals were 24% lower, remortgaging down 20% and equity withdrawal 32% down."

Housing transaction crash. :o :D

Construction has also slowed significantly. From the beeb today:

The services sector grew by 0.8% in the quarter, but construction contracted by 1.8%.

Of course, that didn't stop BBC breakfast inviting some industry shill on today who was saying there would be sustainable construction growth across the whole country now (no longer just limited to the SE). Recoveh? I think not...

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It could simply reflect a move to wealthy specu-vestors buying with cash.

There's some supporting evidence for this, but I'd like to see more data and it would be better if we had actual loan numbers rather than just approvals (the CML publishes such loan data, but it isn't trustworthy in my experience).

Here's the seasonally adjusted chart for BBA approvals:

BBAapprovals1214.gif

And here's the same for approvals data from the BoE, giving a wider market view (although we don't have December figures yet, which will be released on Friday):

MortApprovals1214.gif

However the recent downward trend in approvals isn't being reflected in the residential transactions numbers as published by HMRC. Seasonally adjusted, these have been steady at around 100K for several months now:

HMRCtrans1214.gif

A plot of mortgage approvals (shifted one month) against residential transactions:

TransactionsVsApprovals1214.gif

A plot of the difference between the above two data series (smoothed slightly with a 3mth moving average). In theory this should give some indication of the trend in 'cash' purchases (which could include a foreign purchase assisted by a non-domestic loan).

TransactionsVsApprovals1214_Diff.gif

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There's some supporting evidence for this, but I'd like to see more data and it would be better if we had actual loan numbers rather than just approvals (the CML publishes such loan data, but it isn't trustworthy in my experience).

Fascinating - really appreciate you putting that together. I notice that the last time the difference between mortgage approvals and transactions was so high was around 2008 / 2009 Edited by rantnrave
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A plot of the difference between the above two data series (smoothed slightly with a 3mth moving average). In theory this should give some indication of the trend in 'cash' purchases (which could include a foreign purchase assisted by a non-domestic loan).

TransactionsVsApprovals1214_Diff.gif

Fascinating last chart FT.Thanks

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Fascinating - really appreciate you putting that together. I notice that the last time the difference between mortgage approvals and transactions was so high was around 2008 / 2009

Yes, and so as not to mislead with that last chart, here are implied non-mortgage transactions plotted as a proportion of all transactions:

TransactionsImpliedCashProportion1214.gi

In late 2008 / early 2009 transactions were very low, and with mortgage finance so difficult to source (and still highly priced) it wasn't surprising to see non-mortgage purchases rise to almost 50% of residential transactions.

Now we have record low mortgage rates and schemes such as HTB, and yet on the face of it the market is shifting again towards cash buyers. I stress though that I'd like to see more data and have this apparent trend confirmed by alternative sources.

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Now we have record low mortgage rates and schemes such as HTB, and yet on the face of it the market is shifting again towards cash buyers. I stress though that I'd like to see more data and have this apparent trend confirmed by alternative sources.

The current uptick in differences between the two numbers also coincides with the introduction of MMR
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Now we have record low mortgage rates and schemes such as HTB, and yet on the face of it the market is shifting again towards cash buyers. I stress though that I'd like to see more data and have this apparent trend confirmed by alternative sources.

I appreciate the use of the word 'implied',as clearly many foreign buyers have sourced their credit abroad and therefore appear as cash buyers,when they aren't.I'm unsure how you'd go about tackling that.

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Great stuff Freetrader

I thought you'd be unable to resist the lure of a link to an .xls file!

If there is a downward trend in mortgage offers it would be really interesting to know the underlying cause(s).

Is it a lack of consumer demand and/or a decrease in approval rate?

If it's the latter, are the banks refusing more applications due to MMR or because the FLS money that they took just before the scheme closed is finally starting to run out?

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If there is a downward trend in mortgage offers it would be really interesting to know the underlying cause(s).

Is it a lack of consumer demand and/or a decrease in approval rate?

If it's the latter, are the banks refusing more applications due to MMR or because the FLS money that they took just before the scheme closed is finally starting to run out?

As I understand it there hasn't been a problem with mortgage availability and lenders have been taken by surprise by the recent lack of mortgage demand, although MMR may still be a factor.

This is from the BoE's Credit Conditions Survey, published earlier this month:

CreditConditionsSurvey2014Q4.gif

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/other/monetary/ccs/creditconditionssurvey150106.pdf

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I can't get too excited about a drop in mortgage approvals in December. If it happens in say March or April that would be more interesting. Probably not this March or April as I suspect people will be holding off until after the GE to move.

Yes, but they've been falling for a few months prior though?

If they do continue to fall in the run up to the GE then they would have been falling for at least 6 months.

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Do you think that the General election uncertainty (including the mansion tax) will cause people to defer purchases to May? Cameron has the fixed the date so it is now easier to plan for. I suppose it will be interesting to see if mortgage rate continue to fall chasing the demand!

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Do you think that the General election uncertainty (including the mansion tax) will cause people to defer purchases to May? Cameron has the fixed the date so it is now easier to plan for. I suppose it will be interesting to see if mortgage rate continue to fall chasing the demand!

It is possible people may be more interested in waiting to see if there are giveaways - not least say in stamp duty which is enuogh in many cases to wipe out a number of years of savings in itself for many. Miras was one political move that made historic disolcations in the market.

In the big scheme of things though the liblabcon / central bank position seems to be do whatever it takes in terms of givaways/theft/manipulation and mendaciousness to pump up their preferred bubbles, it will take global ruptions to sterilize the effects of that mentality..

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I can't get too excited about a drop in mortgage approvals in December. If it happens in say March or April that would be more interesting. Probably not this March or April as I suspect people will be holding off until after the GE to move.

It's been happening mom for 6-8 months has it not ?

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How the publically funded and government controlled BBc see things:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31017018

Property sales across the UK rose by 14% in 2014

And right at the end.....

"It added that the number of potential buyers entering the market had now fallen for six months in a row."

These "positive" yoy figures look like they will last till....the election.

This seems to have been engineered.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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