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TheCountOfNowhere

Why Aren't Markets Panicking About Greece?

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Priced in already, in fact I half expected a small rise when it became clear they wouldn't get an overall majority.

Personally I'm a bit too much in cash at the moment and need to rebalance towards equities, so I'm hoping for a fall. However, with some nail biting European negotiations ahead plus the UK elections, I'm hopeful that there will be better equity buying opportunities later this year.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30980321

I do love out state media channel.

And by do, I mean dont.

As far as the Ministry of Information at the BBC was concerned this was a non story until last night, virtually a news blackout. Sky has given it reasonable coverage.

Indeed, no surprise that they are trying to play it down.

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Priced in already, in fact I half expected a small rise when it became clear they wouldn't get an overall majority.

Personally I'm a bit too much in cash at the moment and need to rebalance towards equities, so I'm hoping for a fall. However, with some nail biting European negotiations ahead plus the UK elections, I'm hopeful that there will be better equity buying opportunities later this year.

Indeed, rather ironic that the biggest geopolitical risk on the planet is David Cameron with his in out referendum. Cameron the financial terrorist. But hey that should prove popular on here.

So cash could still be the best policy, a sub 6500 correction at some point surely.

Edited by crashmonitor

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So cash could still be the best policy, a sub 6500 correction at some point surely.

Nothing's for sure. I'm hopeful of a sub 6500 opportunity during 2015 but there's always that chance we'll never see sub 6500 again.

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Maybe it's because greece is a tiny percentage of the EZ.

Maybe its because the markets feel that the Euro is better run along German lines than greek ones.

My guess is that there will be some capitulation from the Troika, but not sure that it will be enough. One way to do it might be to align Syriza policy with EU policy, so for example match every additional pound raised in taxes with a proportionate reduction in debt relief.

I think if Greece leaves the Eu it will be destroyed economically. Certainly the remaining EU members will have a strong incentive to illustrate how horrible the process will be, to prevent contaigen to larger areas (Spain etc).

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Maybe it's because greece is a tiny percentage of the EZ.

Maybe its because the markets feel that the Euro is better run along German lines than greek ones.

My guess is that there will be some capitulation from the Troika, but not sure that it will be enough. One way to do it might be to align Syriza policy with EU policy, so for example match every additional pound raised in taxes with a proportionate reduction in debt relief.

I think if Greece leaves the Eu it will be destroyed economically. Certainly the remaining EU members will have a strong incentive to illustrate how horrible the process will be, to prevent contaigen to larger areas (Spain etc).

Who is saying anything about Greece leaving the EU.....EZ possibly, imo it would do the banks holding the debt more harm than Greece itself.....think of all the cheap holidays and olives.....why companies would be moving in to invest for less and export at a better price, lots of employment could be created for young people. ;)

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I'm guessing the assumption is it was all rhetoric to get elected and once elected they'll suddenly become very cooperative with the creditors and be good little boys and girls and do what's good for them.

Generally once parties get elected they suddenly become part of the establishment and thus behave as the establishment would. A dangerous assumption, question is will this be the one time when this rule doesn't prevail.

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Who is saying anything about Greece leaving the EU.....EZ possibly, imo it would do the banks holding the debt more harm than Greece itself.....think of all the cheap holidays and olives.....why companies would be moving in to invest for less and export at a better price, lots of employment could be created for young people. ;)

Young people that may have to support a Goliath of a welfare system that Syrisa wants to make even more generous. Will they actually be able to keep any of their wages.

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Who is saying anything about Greece leaving the EU.....EZ possibly, imo it would do the banks holding the debt more harm than Greece itself.....think of all the cheap holidays and olives.....why companies would be moving in to invest for less and export at a better price, lots of employment could be created for young people. ;)

Until they joined the EU and adopted the euro this served them well ,the euro decimated there tourism the same for Spain really

Take away the tourism they don`t have a lot left

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I'm guessing the assumption is it was all rhetoric to get elected and once elected they'll suddenly become very cooperative with the creditors and be good little boys and girls and do what's good for them.

Generally once parties get elected they suddenly become part of the establishment and thus behave as the establishment would. A dangerous assumption, question is will this be the one time when this rule doesn't prevail.

This has generally been true.

However this time, I think if they dont stand up to banker-ism then in 6 months time, at the end of a long hot summer, we will a European spring in Greece.

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Until they joined the EU and adopted the euro this served them well ,the euro decimated there tourism the same for Spain really

Take away the tourism they don`t have a lot left

Would you want to go to Greece on holiday right now ?

Might as well have a stay-cation and line the pockets of a property speculator.

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I'm guessing the assumption is it was all rhetoric to get elected and once elected they'll suddenly become very cooperative with the creditors and be good little boys and girls and do what's good for them.

Generally once parties get elected they suddenly become part of the establishment and thus behave as the establishment would. A dangerous assumption, question is will this be the one time when this rule doesn't prevail.

History would suggest you are right ...but there`s a first time for everything

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Would you want to go to Greece on holiday right now ?

Might as well have a stay-cation and line the pockets of a property speculator.

Nope a Greek holiday was all about the low cost once you are there ,rather spend the extra on a flight to Indonesia ..live for pennies still cheaper than Greece /Spain these days even if the flight is 2-3 time more

Stay cation or maybe west coast of France is more my thing in me campervan ..fuel being the major cost

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I think the last time a radical party came to power and did what it said it would do might possible be the Nazi's.

Similar sort of circumstance. Financial collapse, money printing, people standing up against the landed gentry.

It's all so very worrying.

I know the best plan though. Take out a massive mortgage and tie up all your money in bricks and mortar. You can't loose on bricks and mortar

pf_1945_6.jpg

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Until they joined the EU and adopted the euro this served them well ,the euro decimated there tourism the same for Spain really

Take away the tourism they don`t have a lot left

Too true. Greece is an expensive destination thanks to the euro. A little taverna on a Greek island isn't much cheaper than a restaurant in London, and property on these islands also seems shockingly expensive too. The reality is that most Greeks can live a simple, inexpensive and comfortable lifestyle, just as they have done for centuries - but parasitical international finance and a kleptocratic urban elite has heaped misery onto them in the name of progress.

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Until they joined the EU and adopted the euro this served them well ,the euro decimated there tourism the same for Spain really

Take away the tourism they don`t have a lot left

Course it did them well, they got invited to the party and accepted without bringing a bottle.....the money got handed on the plate, they grabbed it with open arms, a few got very rich from easy money......I don't have a job, can you lend me a tenner, pay you back twenty quid later. ;)

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Too true. Greece is an expensive destination thanks to the euro. A little taverna on a Greek island isn't much cheaper than a restaurant in London, and property on these islands also seems shockingly expensive too. The reality is that most Greeks can live a simple, inexpensive and comfortable lifestyle, just as they have done for centuries - but parasitical international finance and a kleptocratic urban elite has heaped misery onto them in the name of progress.

Going on holiday anywhere now has become expensive.

We all seem to be lining the pockets of the landlords bankers.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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SYRIZA has said they want to remain in the EURO, despite renegade members saying otherwise.

My guess is we'll have another few years of 'hard negotiation' in politician speak (ie, inaction) of avoiding doing anything...so both the greeks and germans can pretend they got the best deal for both countries. A little more debt will be written off...not enough...greece will continue to circle the plughole.

Maybe im wrong, maybe a new/non-establishment party has the balls to do something...but I doubt it. I've never seen a sincere socialist and I doubt I will do now.

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Course it did them well, they got invited to the party and accepted without bringing a bottle.....the money got handed on the plate, they grabbed it with open arms, a few got very rich from easy money......I don't have a job, can you lend me a tenner, pay you back twenty quid later. ;)

Aye work well until they could not find the twenty

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As I've said elsewhere, apart from this being quite long in the making the suituation today is entirely different.

The Greek 'bailout' basically removed the French and German banks from the firing line and effectively put the other Euro taxpayers as the backstop.

No bank failure, no fear. Germans have deep pockets.

The main risk i see is if the greeks get any sort of reduction on their debt the rest of the PIIGS are going to say we want a bit of that, then it will become very expensive for someone

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