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The Masked Tulip

2015.75?

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What does the .75 mean in 2015.75 that Martin Armstrong is writing constantly about? Anyone know?

I assume that 2015 means the year - now - but I can't work out what the .75 means? 75 days into the year? The third quarter of the year? 75 years since something last happened? What?

Having just read loads of his articles about all these supposed major economic, political and social changes that are apparently about to occur I am still none the wiser about the .75 bit and what it signifies.

I did a google - asking basics such as 'what is 2015.75' or 'when is 2015.75' - and got no answer from that. If anyting, I just got more questions as some posters online appear to think it is a date whilst others appear to think it is a number for the DOW or the S&P 500.

I did a search on his site for '2015.75' and got loads of articles talking about it but none explaining it.

Anyone know?

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got to be the third quarter, decimalised

That was my first though but then he mentions 2020.03 as in all these things going to happen between 2015.75 and 2020.03. Surely you would use .25 as the first quarter if that was the case?

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That was my first though but then he mentions 2020.03 as in all these things going to happen between 2015.75 and 2020.03. Surely you would use .25 as the first quarter if that was the case?

Yeah, that's what I'd have said too. Maybe he's just making up his numbering convention as he goes along

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Here you go:

We haven’t mentioned Martin Armstrong’s “Economic Confidence Model” (ECM) for quite some time but we’ve been thinking about it recently. The ECM, based on 8.6 year cycles, is often very successful at tracking turning points in the “hot money” flow of global capital.

Now is not the time for a detailed explanation, but for anybody not familiar with the ECM, Armstrong’s report “It’s Just Time” (google it) from several years back is one of the best we’ve ever read and provides excellent background.

The ECM’s peak on 2007.15 (i.e. late-February 2007) picked out the emergence of the sub-prime problems almost to the day. It did the same with the peak in the Nikkei Index in December 1989 and, we know this because we checked, the Great Crash of 1929 (which was 7 x 8.6 years back from the Nikkei’s peak). The 1987 crash was an intermediate peak in the cycle which ended in 1989.

What is fascinating is that the current ECM cycle peaks on 2015.75, i.e. at the end of September this year. The low point of this cycle was 2011.45, i.e. June 2011 which Armstrong refers to as:

“The 2011 bottom was the peak in oil and gold and the start of the breakout in stocks and the beginning of the Euro Crisis in full bloom.”

Good timing on your question TMT - that is lifted straight from a ZH article today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-18/exter%E2%80%99s-pyramid-%E2%80%9C-play%E2%80%9D-and-martin-armstrong-right

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Here you go:

Good timing on your question TMT - that is lifted straight from a ZH article today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-18/exter%E2%80%99s-pyramid-%E2%80%9C-play%E2%80%9D-and-martin-armstrong-right

Thanks for that.

OK, the figures after the decimal point appear to refer to some cycle method of his.

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I looked into his stuff a while back in a moment of clutching at tea leaves and chicken entrails. Think there's some truth in cycle principles, but non-specific ramblings are, well, rambling. Relevant to now dates he came up with were High 7/8/13, Low 4/9/14, Major High 1/10/15, Low 28/10/16, High 24/11/17, Major Low 18/01/20, so 2015.75 is one of them (I'm pulling this from an old spreadsheet). If you read his writings he'll tell you that a high isn't a price high or relating to any particular market, it's something like a confidence high, which can be interpreted however you like. Particularly in retrospect.

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Cycle method? It's just number of days into year divided by 365 and plonked in as a decimal isn't it? But a fairly lazy and reader-unfriendly convention, like June 2015 takes too many keystrokes to bother with. Perhaps for people doing chronological archiving in a spreadsheet form etc it's useful...

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I looked into his stuff a while back in a moment of clutching at tea leaves and chicken entrails. Think there's some truth in cycle principles, but non-specific ramblings are, well, rambling. Relevant to now dates he came up with were High 7/8/13, Low 4/9/14, Major High 1/10/15, Low 28/10/16, High 24/11/17, Major Low 18/01/20, so 2015.75 is one of them (I'm pulling this from an old spreadsheet). If you read his writings he'll tell you that a high isn't a price high or relating to any particular market, it's something like a confidence high, which can be interpreted however you like. Particularly in retrospect.

Cycle method? It's just number of days into year divided by 365 and plonked in as a decimal isn't it? But a fairly lazy and reader-unfriendly convention, like June 2015 takes too many keystrokes to bother with. Perhaps for people doing chronological archiving in a spreadsheet form etc it's useful...

Yes, very reader-unfriendly which, to me, immediately makes me suspicious. If you have to over-complicate language in any walk of life I can't help but wonder whether there is a reason why anyone would want to make things more confusing than they need to be.

However. he does appear to be hailed as some kind of guru by some online who seem to listen to everything he writes. But then I have had a quick glance over some of his older stuff and it is somewhat open to interpretation I think about how accurate or inaccurate it is.

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I just see it as information that others may or may not incorporate into their own outlook. Like zerohedge or BoE forecasts. All of whom are ultimately trying to sell something and all of which tend to be wrong. Or at least as wrong as my own thoughts and probably yours.

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Cycle method? It's just number of days into year divided by 365 and plonked in as a decimal isn't it? But a fairly lazy and reader-unfriendly convention, like June 2015 takes too many keystrokes to bother with. Perhaps for people doing chronological archiving in a spreadsheet form etc it's useful...

Makes it look scientific and highly accurate. Although it would just be easier to do 2015.215.

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As Catflap found out, trying to forecast things to the day or week is a mugs game, particularly in the current environment. But nonetheless, I respect people who have the balls to nail their colours so precisely to the mast, and I do enjoy a good scary story as much as anyone else.

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At any rate whatever it is it's something to look forward to after the Greek and UK general elections - since 2012 and then the 2014 World Cup footie there seems to be a scarcity of doom date predictions.

Edited by billybong

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At any rate whatever it is it's something to look forward to after the Greek and UK general elections - since 2012 and then the 2014 World Cup footie there seems to be a scarcity of doom date predictions.

so conservative -ukip coalition it is then.

we leave eurozone in september.

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I looked into his stuff Think there's some truth in cycle principles, but non-specific ramblings are, well, rambling.

Feel much the same. I think Robert Preckter's analyis of a high probability deflationary outcome as out lined in Conquer the Crash (naff title for a great book) is first rate. But I am a sceptic about the Elliott Wave Priciciple for all occasions.

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I think this is similar to the Shmita (sp) financial theory that financial collapses go in cycles. Both Armstrong and the Shmita theory predict financial collapse in roughly Sep/Oct of this year.

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Here you go:

Good timing on your question TMT - that is lifted straight from a ZH article today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-18/exter%E2%80%99s-pyramid-%E2%80%9C-play%E2%80%9D-and-martin-armstrong-right

Seriously. ANYTHING ZH touches is nonsense. Proven time and time again

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Was he actually convicted? He says they had no evidence but he wouldn;t give up his knowledge

From the earlier link:

Armstrong spent seven years in a Manhattan prison before pleading guilty in 2006 to conspiracy for lying to investors about his trading record and the value of assets he held.

You should also read up on the supporters who helped him in jail. He did not treat them nicely, when he got out. Sociopath?

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What does the .75 mean in 2015.75 that Martin Armstrong is writing constantly about? Anyone know?

I assume that 2015 means the year - now - but I can't work out what the .75 means? 75 days into the year? The third quarter of the year? 75 years since something last happened? What?

Having just read loads of his articles about all these supposed major economic, political and social changes that are apparently about to occur I am still none the wiser about the .75 bit and what it signifies.

I did a google - asking basics such as 'what is 2015.75' or 'when is 2015.75' - and got no answer from that. If anyting, I just got more questions as some posters online appear to think it is a date whilst others appear to think it is a number for the DOW or the S&P 500.

I did a search on his site for '2015.75' and got loads of articles talking about it but none explaining it.

Anyone know?

Why does it matter to you? The guy appears to have a correct track record no better than that which can be accounted for by normal randomness/probabilities - never mind the fact that he's a bit of a fruitcake.

The fact that he blogs and makes comments on current political affairs and takes a libertarian stance on things that you may well agree with is neither here nor there vis a vis his financial forecasting track record.

Edited by anonguest

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