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Stu007

Righmove House Price Index January 2015

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Not long now till we get the next rightmove house price index releases (Monday 15th) what are people predicting it'll be?

I'm hoping for any -ve figure, but in the small area of Britain I look at on rightmove it's probably flat at best to +ve.

Last January had the largest increase recorded at 1% so surely whatever happens the yoy figure will be seeing a reduction.

Jan 02. -3.9%

Jan 03. -0.4%

Jan 04. -0.1%

Jan 05. -0.1%

Jan 06. 0.1%

Jan 07. 0.5%

Jan 08. -0.8%

Jan 09. -1.9%

Jan 10. 0.4%

Jan 11. 0.3%

Jan 12. -0.8%

Jan 13. 0.2%

Jan 14. 1%

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I think it will be up - the new supply in my area is much higher than November and December, so I think we're going to see a load of new kite flyers over the next few weeks in time for the mystical spring bounce.

But the increase in supply is looking very promising.

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I think it will be up - the new supply in my area is much higher than November and December, so I think we're going to see a load of new kite flyers over the next few weeks in time for the mystical spring bounce.

But the increase in supply is looking very promising.

Up, then the previous stock is twenty percent down as no one is buying it.

The Rightmove index needs to be ignored or banned in its current form. It's prone to manipulation and is not an accurate guide to current asking prices due to it being done, strangely, on first listing price and not current.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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around here in north hampshire the EA's are overwhelmed with new properties coming on to the market which can only help bring prices down to a more sensible level. A local house that went on 2 days ago for 550 k already has an offer at 500k. Estimated value of house next door is £350!

Still overpriced by £100k IMHO.

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around here in north hampshire the EA's are overwhelmed with new properties coming on to the market which can only help bring prices down to a more sensible level. A local house that went on 2 days ago for 550 k already has an offer at 500k. Estimated value of house next door is £350!

Still overpriced by £100k IMHO.

Does not compute.

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I am really not surprised at this. What we're seeing now is the people who decided over Christmas to put the house on the market, and in most cases these will be the sort of people who have absolutely no understanding of the housing market other than, "That bloke and bird off the telly said prices always go up".

Coupled with that, in the last week they've probably seen their Christmas credit card bill hit the doormat, and some of them may be peripherally aware that prices are back to - and in some cases well above - 2007. I reckon quite a few will be seeing this as the optimal time to make the jump for as much as they can get.

Either way it's an irrelevance - as Count posted above, the methodology of the RM index is completely flawed. All that matters is increasing supply, and I'm seeing over 100% increase on November and December, and I'm starting to get calls from agents again. That to me says everything is looking groovy.

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I am really not surprised at this. What we're seeing now is the people who decided over Christmas to put the house on the market, and in most cases these will be the sort of people who have absolutely no understanding of the housing market other than, "That bloke and bird off the telly said prices always go up".

Which would be true every year, so why the especially large leap this January?

Much as we would all like things to be moving quicker, my understanding of things IMO is that only London is starting to wobble. Minor prices falls there at the moment (sold or asking) aren't sufficient enough to cancel out the pick up in the rest of the country, started by Dave & Gidiot a couple of years ago. This thing is like a turning oil tanker.

The only consolation in this data is that RICS said supply was so low, that this month's latest round of kiteflying asking prices is actually based on very small volume.

[rambling mode]

Each year at this time, I manage to convince myself that this is the year that the second leg down will commence. I am however pessimistic about 2015. The pension changes, stamp duty changes and European QE to be announced this week will snuff out the few encouraging signs there have been of late. I believe a sustained period of low oil prices will also encourage landlords to up rents and push more people to look at buying.

[/rambling mode]

Edited by rantnrave

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Which would be true every year, so why the especially large leap this January?

Fair point, but I do think a lot of people will be seeing this as their chance for a big payday after months of rises, and more so than last year or the year before.

Maybe wishful thinking, who knows. We will see.

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Part of me thinks this is just down to agents saying "look,you're going to have to reduce this a few times, so why not go in with a stupid price and well reduce it down to get interest". As we know, this index is totally useless.

Part of me has learned to accept that the above may well be me clutching at straws.

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I dunno, the mood music feels a lot grimmer of late. See this morning's puff piece from the Torygraph below. We've spent years waiting for a 'trigger', but when sentiment turns, do you really need one?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/11354128/Gazundering-to-return-to-the-housing-market-as-buyers-get-the-upper-hand.html

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