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VacantPossession

Blog: Hometrack Is Not "independent"

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ThisisMoney: House prices to rise 1% in 2006 AVERAGE house prices will rise by just 1% next year, and by an average of just over 2% a year over the next three years, Britain's biggest independent residential property research company said today.

See this blog on HPC blog alert.

The fact is, Hometrack is NOT a truly independent property research company. You have to ask three questions when anyone claiming to be independent issues "research" on housing.

1. What is the relationship of this company to property developers, surveyors, lawyers and estate agents?

2. To whom is this company's "research" directed and who benefits from it?

3. What is the consequence for this company's survival if its research is not good news for those it serves?

In ALL THREE cases there is a palpable and obvious vested interest here. Hometrack earns its keep by providing what it claims to be "independent" data for use by estate agents, developers, investers and other people with a direct interest in house price inflation.

But even if that were not the case, Hometrack has, by predicting what it GUESSES to be the rate of HP inflation for 2006 actually abandoned its claimed reason for existence. It is one thing to provide solid DATA of PAST performance, prices and demographics. It is another matter completely to speculate on the future, and that is what Hometrack is doing.

Even a billion items of data of current and past statistics is still no basis whatever for making predictions which have any substance to them, especially when recent data suggests, if anything, the opposite of what Hometrack now claims. Furthermore, if for instance I was researching into the volume of loaves of bread distributed in the UK and found that in the last six months the total bread sales had DECLINED, on what basis could I possibly now speculate that sales of Bread next year would increase? This is effect what Hometrack is attempting.

I cannot find any detail on how Hometrack have arrived at this guess. Its site is full of conflicting mission statements. On one page it claims it has no direct link with any property vested interests. On another it claims to be the arm of a billion or so pounds turnover company with contracts, service agreements and relationships with a huge array of property individuals, corporations and professionals all with a direct interest in property inflation remaining in positive growth.

In this regard it is just the same as all the other VI's which spin daily rubbish. Independent my @rse!

VP

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If as most of these people claimed that SIPPs would make a difference to the housing market, why should we then believe any figures produced before SIPPs was canned.

Why are we not seeing figures from these same sources indicating the negative impact SIPPs will have on their predictions

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Hometrack never have been independant.

Although I've liked their figures recently (as they told me what I wanted to hear) I've never really trusted them.

Prices in my area haven't really risen (not actual prices paid, except for the odd fool) since late 2003.

People who have bought in 2003 would be lucky to get the same price today.

But Hometrack showed rising prices in my area until late 2004.

Through 2005 they have been showing modest to good falls (0.1% to 1.4%), but the reality is probably far worse IMHO.

Now they are trying to say that there will be stagnation/small rises/small falls??

Just another bunch of VIs lining up to look very silly when the market proves them wrong.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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