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Best Party For Improving The Housing Situation After The Election

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From a purely HPC point of view (and by that I mean the provision of quality, affordable, no-strings housing to buy, not necessarily a collapse in prices across the board...) who should we be rooting for when the election happens in May?

My take on it having had a quick skim over their housing policies:-

Conservative:

+ arguably accomplished more since 2010 than Labour managed in their years in power. There seems to be an increase in newbuild affordable housing and planning restrictions have been relaxed.

+ Possible vote on the EU has the potential to limit immigration (which is a big strain on housing)

- Unikely to do anything about landlords.

- Help to Buy is a disaster waiting to happen once interest becomes payable after the initial five years has finished.

- Cannot rule out them spending a lot more public money on propping up this whole thing...

Labour:

+ In theory, provision of low-cost, quality housing should, in theory, be a priority

+ Better rights for private tenants might discourage BTL.

+ Mansion Tax?

- absolutely no commitment to reducing immigration (no EU referendum)

- awful track record in this department.

Libdems:

+ In theory, provision of low-cost, quality housing should, in theory, be a priority...

+ want to build "300,000 homes a year"

+ Increased rights for private tenants

- No real chance of getting elected

- Immigration (Committed to the EU)

UKIP:

+ Limits on immigration likely after leaving the EU, relieving some pressure on housing

- NIMBY-friendly policies

- Committed to protecting the "green belt"

Greens:

+ "Disincentives to the speculative ownership of housing will be introduced, including higher rates of Council Tax for unoccupied properties and second homes"

+ Private sector "needs to have rents controlled and tenants provided with additional legal protection."

- Pretty much an open door immigration policy.

- Minimise the encroachment onto undeveloped "greenfield" sites

- "To hold back all new development on agricultural land or other land not at present within the confines of an urban (including village) area."

Who is the best of this bad bunch? :-/

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I thinks it's labour:

1. Most likely to attempt to redress the landlord/tenant balance, making BTL less attractive (I suspect that it's boomer BTL that is propping up most of the market at the moment). The average BTL landlord is unlikely to be a natural labour voter so Milliband will be less worried about upsetting them.

2. Most likely to result in a significant rise in interest rates through mismanagement of the economy and too much public spending.

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Even if labour or tories build anything it would be bovis boxes that I wouldnt even house prisoners in. I'd rather live in an RV than the newbuild crap put up by the big developers TBH.

Now, if they said they are going to release 5 million plots for self builders...

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2. Most likely to result in a significant rise in interest rates through mismanagement of the economy and too much public spending.

I was thinking this too... But that carries additional risks (will we lose our jobs?) and will be a horrible outcome for those who are repossessed :-/ That said, even making BTL a less attractive investment might do it - with an increase in repossessions not necessary :-)

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IMHO the single most important factor in 'improving' the housing situation - i.e. bringing down the price is crushing the availability of finance.

Thus the Green's are the best, as they (supposedly) want Full Reserve banking :

http://www.positivemoney.org/2013/09/green-party-passed-a-motion-to-place-money-creation-into-public-hands-and-end-fractional-reserve-banking/

I also think they'd be more open to people who want to do sustainable self builds.

However, none of this is likely to happen sadly.

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I don't think any of the listed parties currently have a strong intention to improve the "provision of quality, affordable, no-strings housing to buy".

'Housing' is seen by most politicians as an unimportant issue that most voters don't care much about and which won't change their voting intentions. Sure, there might be a few vocal NIMBYs and a few vocal priced-out GenYers, but most people are owner occupiers who don't give a toss.

It is clear that this election will not be fought on housing. Labour want to talk about the NHS, the Conservatives want to talk about "The Economy" (i.e. GDP and jobs numbers), the Lib Dems want to talk about how they're nicer than the Conservatives but more economically competent than Labour, UKIP want to talk about Europe, the Greens want to talk about ending austerity.

Maybe housing will be a serious issue in the 2020 election but it isn't in this one.

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The next election is about immigration, and it will be even more focused on this after recent events ( I know the shooters were born in France in the case of the first event but that won`t make much difference to the sentiment of voters) There are plenty of houses for everyone, it is just that houses became a big part of the bankers chess board, but there will be events coming down the track that weaken lending and maybe force rates up so hopefully some more banks will pop along with the housing bubble. None of the parties have publicly said house prices need to come down as far as I know, but for me UKIP is the only credible vote at the moment as I think a move away from the EZ needs to happen before any other reforms can. (Of course all the parties are sock puppets of the bankers in one way or another, but tipping points can be reached in public sentiment where the wishes of the elites are overturned, and I think we are close to one with the EZ and immigration)

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I think building is the most important issue, but within our limited housing supply, BTL is the biggest limiter on the ability of FTBers to get on the ladder. BTL accounts for about 25% of the entire housing market and a disproportionate about of the FTB market, and even more so of the new-build market. Anything to control or limit BTL is good in my book.

The Tories will never consider than, except at the margins, just as they will never dare threaten the precious green belts.

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Definitely Labour.

If they lose they'll go middle ground again and we'll get another Bliar.

I don't like Milli but he does seem to want to go left, and we desperately need a return to some distinction between our political parties.

Tory voter my whole life btw.

Also, I'd give UKIP another minus just for their housing minister being a HB slum landlord trougher. He does look a bit like Dr Evil mind which is pretty cool.

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Minority government, or a weak coalition.

The second bubble was caused by government underwriting of the land market by both Labour and Tories.

A weak government can't do that as credibly.

The less representation the Tories have, and the more representation there is from minor parties, the better.

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For historical perspective

_54388267_housebuilding_464.gif

Since the 2010 general election the current government (Conservative and LibDem coalition) has on average been building a total of a bit more than 100,000 new homes a year - total including all categories. Not much different from the last few years of the Labour government upto 2010. So less than anytime since World War 2 (1939 to 1945).

Last year all the main parties were "promising" to increase new home building in the UK to something in the region of double or more the current rate during the next Parliament - during the next Parliament eventually (emphasis on the word eventually).

Of course numbers aren't UK politicians' strong point as demonstrated for instance by all the broken "promises" made by both the Labour and the Conservatives (aided by the LibDems) on the immigration numbers.

Edited by billybong

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For historical perspective

_54388267_housebuilding_464.gif

Since the 2010 general election the current government (Conservative and LibDem coalition) has on average been building a total of bit more than 100,000 new homes a year - total including all categories. Not much different from the last few years of the Labour government upto 2010.

Last year all the main parties were "promising" to increase new home building in the UK to something in the region of double or more the current rate during the next Parliament - during the next Parliament eventually (emphasis on the word eventually).

Of course numbers aren't UK politicians' strong point as demonstrated for instance by all the broken "promises" made by both the Labour and the Conservatives (aided by the LibDems) on the immigration numbers.

I find it quite revealing that we expect the government to have a five-year plan for housing and not for, say, tractors.

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I find it quite revealing that we expect the government to have a five-year plan for housing and not for, say, tractors.

If only they would stop meddling, manipulating and tinkering etc to favour the house price VIs then enough houses might get built.

Since 2010 another yet 5 years have been wasted by the UK's political time wasters and tinkerers.

Edited by billybong

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When Thatcher sold off the council housing (free market idiology)... some got the cream, others got to look on with envy. She then prevented councils using that money to replace those lost community/country assets. Of course, subsequent government went with this and failed to reverse this idiotic policy (politics). Like North Sea oil this was a once in a lifetime thing. Short-term. And yet since then flogging over-priced houses on the never-never seems to have been the only economic policy in town. The big change under Brown was equity release to fund that feel good factor, hence the turning a blind eye to the obvious problems - too much debt and too little control over the various financial shenanigans.

Tragic really. The solution - a house price crash and reset is untenable. No votes in it; would also be an admission that they were all wrong. All those years.

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Easy billybong :rolleyes:

No offence intended tinker.

I wasn't referring to tinkers or (travelling) tinsmiths - or cheeky people ;)

Edited by billybong

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Definitely Labour.

If they lose they'll go middle ground again and we'll get another Bliar.

I don't like Milli but he does seem to want to go left, and we desperately need a return to some distinction between our political parties.

Tory voter my whole life btw.

Also, I'd give UKIP another minus just for their housing minister being a HB slum landlord trougher. He does look a bit like Dr Evil mind which is pretty cool.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-housing-spokesman-trousering-fortune-3175130

In October 2014, The Times newspaper reported that Charalambous had falsely claimed to hold a "PhD in the parallels between Plato’s Utopia and Spartan Society" on his Facebook page as well as claiming to be a "professor of environmental sciences" on his official website. Shortly after the revelations, claims that Charalambous was a qualified Barrister-at-Law were removed from his official website.[13]

Wikipedia

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http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-housing-spokesman-trousering-fortune-3175130

In October 2014, The Times newspaper reported that Charalambous had falsely claimed to hold a "PhD in the parallels between Plato’s Utopia and Spartan Society" on his Facebook page as well as claiming to be a "professor of environmental sciences" on his official website. Shortly after the revelations, claims that Charalambous was a qualified Barrister-at-Law were removed from his official website.[13]

Wikipedia

Who cares?

The fact that Cameron is wriggling like a worm and even refusing to take part in any pre election debates without the Greens is proof enough that the Tories are scared stiff of UKIP and that alone is enough to make me vote UKIP.

Vote UKIP, upset the status quo.

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Surely it would be UKIP

  • Leaving the EU would possibly cause rates to rise as its pretty seismic.
  • New rules on immigration would reduce demand ongoing for certain rentals
  • In industries such as mine (hotels) employers would have to start training and paying a decent wage to young British people = inflation in those who can and killing off those who cannot.
  • Farage has already mentioned thepossibility of controls/non dom status etc which would have an impact at the top of the market.

Market risk of leaving the EU + limiting immigration + inflation of low wages + raising non dom requirements /limiting number of properties for rich foreigners (ironically like Gulf countries and china)

= a massive HPC

You don't have to have a policy of low house prices to make it so

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Surely it would be UKIP

= a massive HPC

The price is far too high.

When the alternative is to starve because we can no longer import either food or the petrochemicals to support our intensive agriculture, I'll take high house prices.

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The price is far too high.

When the alternative is to starve because we can no longer import either food or the petrochemicals to support our intensive agriculture, I'll take high house prices.

Oh please :rolleyes:.

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