TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yawn. Just another example of the weaponised rating agencies being wheeled into action. Anyone still taking the Rating agencies seriously needs their head examined. As if the mortgage securities debacle wasn't enough ... Are you personally downgrading the ratings agencies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlyme2 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yawn. Just another example of the weaponised rating agencies being wheeled into action. Anyone still taking the Rating agencies seriously needs their head examined. As if the mortgage securities debacle wasn't enough ... Which is why the chinese kicking them into touch and starting up their own, I suspect the upper level of many companies and institutions are increasingly just a free market veneer atop a thick slab of political influence and patronage - what marks success nowadays - the companies which are too big to fail and have taxpayer mony siphoned into them at any cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 At what point does Putin lash out in response to this. But maybe that is what the West wants him to do? Whatever peoples feelings about Putin he's not an idiot. There's no way he wants or will be coaxed into direct armed confrontation with the West. Nobody would win that game. Putin is quietly courting the BRICs, particularly China. Some people are disparaging of this strategy, personally I have no idea. They've already created their own ratings agency http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/03/russia-china-ratings-idUSL6N0OK1QP20140603 , and heaven knows if China can single-handedly** prop up the US bond market I don't see why they couldn't do the same for Russia. ** Small exaggeration, yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Whatever peoples feelings about Putin he's not an idiot. There's no way he wants or will be coaxed into direct armed confrontation with the West. Nobody would win that game. Putler is not an idiot. He is a genius. - He reduced the Russian economy by 50%. - He turned Russian economy in centrally managed kleptocracy with his 10 friends. - He alienated EU and G7 with more sanctions coming this week (some people talk even about SWIFT). - He has direct armed confrontation in Georgia and Ukraine, which directly neighbour with the West. - He repeatedly threatens smaller EU nations. If Putler goal is to take Russia to economical and political abyss he is really a genius. I feel sorry for Russians ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crash Buyer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If we are looking for a collapse in the REAL economy then we already have one much closer to home in the southern Eurozone. I think this is more likely to be the big story this year than Russia, which IMO was last year's story. The massive ruble depreciation makes exports cheaper so a lot rides on Russia's ability to both diversify away from oil (something it hasn't managed yet) and also develop import substitution. The oil price will also recover once marginal producers are eliminated. These options are not even possible for Greece in the Eurozone. Just more crushing austerity from the bankers. This is just the start of the end for the Euro project. Only a core will survive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Putler is not an idiot. He is a genius. - He reduced the Russian economy by 50%. - He turned Russian economy in centrally managed kleptocracy with his 10 friends. - He alienated EU and G7 with more sanctions coming this week (some people talk even about SWIFT). - He has direct armed confrontation in Georgia and Ukraine, which directly neighbour with the West. - He repeatedly threatens smaller EU nations. If Putler goal is to take Russia to economical and political abyss he is really a genius. I feel sorry for Russians ... Ok. Dont troll this tread off the main forum as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I guess the big question for the Russians in the face of the oil rout is what if anything they can do to boost other areas of their economy. Presumably they are going to have an issue with unemployment because of the workers who will be made redundant from the O&G sector. I suppose the obvious thing to do would be to encourage investment in manufacturing previously imported items and take advantage of the increased competitivity of Russian labour an materials prices. Funding this is probably more the challenge. The Western solution would be money printing, but this is difficult while you have increasing import costs feeding into inflation. I guess ultimately they may need to go down this path anyway, and once the currency has stabilised and imports are no longer feeding in there is nothing to stop them doing it anyway. The only question is probably whether they should wait until then. Unless this article from 2012 is ancient history I would say that they can't grow other parts of their economy http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18706597 In the last 10 years Russia has imprisoned nearly three million entrepreneurs, many unjustly. This statistic comes from a new ombudsman for business rights, Boris Titov, who says it is "hard to find another social group persecuted on such a large scale". How has this come about? Businessmen have complained for years that people have been able to frame commercial rivals - by paying corrupt police officers to plant evidence and make arrests to order. But only now are they being taken seriously. More and more well-heeled entrepreneurs have been joining, even leading street protests in recent months, with reform of the courts one of their main demands. Perhaps those protests influenced President Putin's decision last month to create a post of "ombudsman for business rights" - but he might also have been persuaded by the $84bn in capital that left Russia last year, a record amount. Russians are investing overseas because they fear for the safety of their businesses at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Russian Ruble Extends Gains, Stocks Erase All Post-Downgrade Losses - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-27/russian-ruble-extends-gains-stocks-erase-all-post-downgrade-losses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) Hilarious that Fitch are still taken seriously by anyone. Is this a joke? Good to see all 4 Putler's trolls on this thread defending Putler's genius .... Perhaps you should explain to us why the Russian capital flight was just $150 billions in 2014 ??? http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-russia-capital-flight-more-than-doubled-in-2014-to-151-bn-2015-1?IR=T Russia capital flight more than doubled in 2014 to $151 bn Edited January 27, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) Russian Ruble Extends Gains, Stocks Erase All Post-Downgrade Losses - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-27/russian-ruble-extends-gains-stocks-erase-all-post-downgrade-losses Please show us: Edited January 27, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 These options are not even possible for Greece in the Eurozone. Just more crushing austerity from the bankers. This is just the start of the end for the Euro project. Only a core will survive. Are you really suggesting that crashing the currency by 50% is a better option than the austerity (you spend what you earn and reduce your borrowing to 3% of GDP) ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Putler just blinked first; I am sure it will be noted by the West ... http://rt.com/business/226819-russia-swift-sanctions-response/ Russian PM vows ‘unrestricted’ response if banned from SWIFT payment system... Thus, last August the UK proposed to exclude Russia from the SWIFT system as a part of sanctions imposed on the country due to the situation in eastern Ukraine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 On a couple to few years' view RSX is great value. Can it go lower? Of course. But...on a couple to few years' view... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Now thats an inverted yield curve Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie 2h2 hours ago Russia's yield curve shows Moscow paying over 20% to borrow for 3 months, and 12% to borrow for 20 years: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 (edited) Not a good day for Russian economy; is the SWIFT on the table now? http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/obama-merkel-say-russia-should-be-held-accountable-for-ukraine-violence/515019.html Obama, Merkel Say Russia Should Be Held Accountable for Ukraine Violence Edited January 28, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Putler is not an idiot. He is a genius. - He reduced the Russian economy by 50%. - He turned Russian economy in centrally managed kleptocracy with his 10 friends. - He alienated EU and G7 with more sanctions coming this week (some people talk even about SWIFT). - He has direct armed confrontation in Georgia and Ukraine, which directly neighbour with the West. - He repeatedly threatens smaller EU nations. If Putler goal is to take Russia to economical and political abyss he is really a genius. I feel sorry for Russians ... Him and Gordon Brown could be best mates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Him and Gordon Brown could be best mates. Agreed. The introduction of working tax credits was Brown's nuclear option to destory UK's economy for generations ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Unless this article from 2012 is ancient history I would say that they can't grow other parts of their economy http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18706597 Corruption seems pretty endemic there, but I would have thought it's a jigsaw piece rather than the overriding issue at this point. My reasoning is that if investment starts with capital then it will come from loans, wealth or foreign investment. I think at this point we can rule out the latter. Cronyism will damage the competition, certainly, but if the cronies already control the majority of the capital most new investment would need to come from them anyway. Unless the government are going to print a lot of rubles and encourage lending to smaller start-ups.. then there would be a definite advantage to reducing corruption. You run the risk of destabilising your national police force in the process though. Not sure whether that is a good bear to wrestle in the current climate.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie 35m35 minutes ago Russia cuts interest rates to 15% from 17%. Big surprise. Growth a bigger worry for Moscow than tumbling rouble and rising inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31049952 Russian military planes flying near UK airspace caused "disruption to civil aviation" on Wednesday, the Foreign Office has said. It said the two Russian planes did not enter UK airspace, but the manoeuvres were "part of an increasing pattern of out-of-area operations" by Russia. The planes were "escorted" by RAF jets "throughout the time they were in the UK area of interest", officials added. Russia's ambassador said the patrols were "routine" and dismissed concerns. Typhoon fighters were scrambled from RAF Lossiemouth and RAF Coningsby to escort the Russian aircraft, and the RAF said the mission lasted 12 hours. Russian military pilots are becoming more and more aggressive, flying at escorting RAF aircraft and keeping radio and transponder silence, defence analyst Paul Beaver says The Foreign Office refused to give details of the disruption to civil aviation. BBC defence correspondent Jonathan Beale said the Russian planes - two Tu-95 Bear H bombers - came within 25 miles of the UK. They travelled from the north, past the west coast of Ireland and to the English Channel before turning and going back the way they had come, he said. He said the bombers did not file a flight plan, did not have their transponders switched on and "weren't talking to air traffic control" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Putler taking Russian Ruble down the drain; worse than December crisis; 71 Rubles for 1 $ .... http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1W http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1M http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1Y Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On medium term view price is extremely cheap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 (edited) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31049952 In international airspace and fully entitled to fly where they like. It's laughable of the UK to expect military aircraft to file flight plans, respond to UK queries or have transponders switched on. Add to that, this happens (literally) all the time - with hundreds of similar incidents in the last few years. Perfectly normal, routine test patrols. Worth noting that the RAF has no right to 'escort' other aircraft in international airspace - and hence the Russians can ignore them or fly at them if they want. It's international airspace. The UK has no jurisdiction. I'm not quite sure what part of that the Uk government fails to grasp. Edited January 30, 2015 by Errol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 (edited) In the cold war days the Russian military planes were often reported as flying close to the UK and the newspapers used to post photos of the Russian pilots smiling and waving to the intercepting RAF fighter plane pilots. Edited January 30, 2015 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 On medium term view price is extremely cheap how much have you bought? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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