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Janet Daley Predicts "no Coalition"

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The Telegraph's Janet Daley forecasts there's "no way" we'll have another coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11323127/Theres-no-way-were-heading-for-another-carping-coalition.html

Unfortunately she's got form as a poll denier, one of those pundits who confuses what she wants with evidence based probability. Here she is in 2012 flying in the face of almost all the opinion polls to predict a Mitt Romney win,

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100188062/time-for-me-to-get-off-the-fence-i-believe-mitt-romney-will-win-tonight-and-this-is-why/

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The Telegraph's Janet Daley forecasts there's "no way" we'll have another coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11323127/Theres-no-way-were-heading-for-another-carping-coalition.html

Unfortunately she's got form as a poll denier, one of those pundits who confuses what she wants with evidence based probability. Here she is in 2012 flying in the face of almost all the opinion polls to predict a Mitt Romney win,

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100188062/time-for-me-to-get-off-the-fence-i-believe-mitt-romney-will-win-tonight-and-this-is-why/

Lol

Her logic is that the coalition was crap so people will vote to return to the Lab/ Con two party system. Erm... Nurse! Nurse! More medication please.

She also reckons that the Blairites are likely to return to bring 'sanity' back to the Labour Party and that social media has no chance against the illustrious might of our national press.

If we all close our eyes and prey hard enough then perhaps things will go back to how they were in the good old days... Nurse!

Edited by Bear Goggles

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She should go tell Obama that social media is useless, he used it too devastating effect.

I would argue that it is the mainstream media in particular newspapers that are becoming less relevant as time passes. As the older generation dies off, we will have a populace that is completely at home with the internet.

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To summarise her argument, the Conservatives will win with a small majority because:

- English voters who claim to have deserted the Conservatives for UKIP are not being serious and will "come home" on the day.

- Scottish voters who claim to have deserted Labour for the SNP are being serious.

I don't think she understands that Scottish seats moving from Labour to SNP will not help the Conservatives win a majority (over 325 seats), only seats moving from X to Con will do that. Game theory fail.

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There is really too much glib talk altogether about new forms of communication or media replacing – or comprising an existential threat to – established ones. I am old enough to remember the confident prediction that television would rapidly kill off cinema. (Who would go out to a theatre when he had a screen to watch in the comfort of his own home?)

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She should go tell Obama that social media is useless, he used it too devastating effect.

I would argue that it is the mainstream media in particular newspapers that are becoming less relevant as time passes. As the older generation dies off, we will have a populace that is completely at home with the internet.

Yep. People who buy papers tend to be pensioners.

I cannot remember when I last saw someone under 40 buy a paper.

Even builders look at t1ts on their phone now.

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She also reckons that the Blairites are likely to return to bring 'sanity' back to the Labour Party

Yeah, that one was ridiculous. Disillusioned former Labour voters in northern England want a Blairite Labour party again. Er, what? Turnout fell steadily throughout the Blair years because exactly that demographic stopped showing up at the polls.

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Establishment schill, schilling for the establishment as per usual

At the very least the polls suggest an SNP landslide in Scotland. If that happens it is the end of UK politics as we know it and probably the end of the UK. What happens with regard to the split in votes between LibLabCon and UKIP elsewhere may be irrelevant.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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Yup the unfolding SNP surge is a very important part of the UK election outcome.

I've consistently argued that it'll be Ed M in No. 10 with a workable majority. I reckon he'll still get there with a reduced majority or run a minority administration with a degree of breathing space by virtue of having an opposition of SNP/Con/UKIP/indies/etc who are unlikely to agree on any particular issue. Conservatives like Daley are still in denial about UKIP's fatal effect on the Conservatives's chances in May.

Not sure Miliband's undeniable unpopularity, the relentless focus of the media, will be of much relevance.

Although I called 2010 wrong by saying Cam would win a majority so pinch of salt at the ready...

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Yup the unfolding SNP surge is a very important part of the UK election outcome.

I've consistently argued that it'll be Ed M in No. 10 with a workable majority. I reckon he'll still get there with a reduced majority or run a minority administration with a degree of breathing space by virtue of having an opposition of SNP/Con/UKIP/indies/etc who are unlikely to agree on any particular issue.

Labour minority government maybe, majority impossible on current polling. In fact, based on current polls it's looking unlikely that any 2 party coalition other than Lab-Con would have a majority. My guess is the most likely result in 2015 is 2-3 months of coalition negotiations resulting in a very weak Con minority government due to them being the largest single party. This minority government won't last until 2020 and we will have an early general election.

I think a Lab-Con coalition is very unlikely to actually happen in 2015 as both parties are still pretending to be mortal enemies, but between 2015 and the subsequent general election both parties will have time to get used to the idea and it's a very plausible result for the election after the one in May 2015.

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If we keep having no overall majority over the next couple of decades, could it happen that liblabcon all agree that FPTP has had its day?

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Yep. People who buy papers tend to be pensioners.

I cannot remember when I last saw someone under 40 buy a paper.

Even builders look at t1ts on their phone now.

My 4 year old daughter asked "What's a newspaper"? when her grandmother asked if she wanted to go to the shops with her to get one.

When asked "Don't your mummy and daddy read newspapers"? She replied with puzzlement, "No. They read their phones".

I stopped reading papers when I was a young adult, the majority of those under about 20 today will likely never have bought one.

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Labour minority government maybe, majority impossible on current polling. In fact, based on current polls it's looking unlikely that any 2 party coalition other than Lab-Con would have a majority. My guess is the most likely result in 2015 is 2-3 months of coalition negotiations resulting in a very weak Con minority government due to them being the largest single party. This minority government won't last until 2020 and we will have an early general election.

I think a Lab-Con coalition is very unlikely to actually happen in 2015 as both parties are still pretending to be mortal enemies, but between 2015 and the subsequent general election both parties will have time to get used to the idea and it's a very plausible result for the election after the one in May 2015.

Pretty bold prediction to say Tories will be largest party, although it's certainly tightening up as time goes by.

Will be watching this with interest, although a good degree of resignation to boot as far as my personal priorities are concerned. I now live in a very marginal (~500 vote majority) constituency, but it's Labour held and I think they'll increase their majority comfortably. Had a few bits of electoral literature through the door already, all from Labour.

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She should go tell Obama that social media is useless, he used it too devastating effect.

What, to win by a tiny margin over no-hoper Republican candidates?

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The Telegraph's Janet Daley forecasts there's "no way" we'll have another coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11323127/Theres-no-way-were-heading-for-another-carping-coalition.html

Unfortunately she's got form as a poll denier, one of those pundits who confuses what she wants with evidence based probability. Here she is in 2012 flying in the face of almost all the opinion polls to predict a Mitt Romney win,

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100188062/time-for-me-to-get-off-the-fence-i-believe-mitt-romney-will-win-tonight-and-this-is-why/

As mentioned by previous posters, some of her colleagues are seriously suggesting a LabCon coalition to defeat the aims of UKIP or the SNP.

https://archive.today/F60Oj

https://archive.today/RGEIC

https://archive.today/IQYmK

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some of her colleagues are seriously suggesting a LabCon coalition to defeat the aims of UKIP or the SNP.

Would be the natural conclusion of the last 20 years of Westminster politics...

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