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Perfect Hpc Storm In 2015

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It's just a bit of fun...

...But here’s a highly improbable, but not unfeasible HPC scenario for 2015.

Quarter 1:
Super prime London goes negative due to the large reduction in Russian buyers, pushing national HPI sharply down and igniting talk of a national property “slowdown” during 2015. Meanwhile, a Syriza victory in the Greek election sparks jitters in the EZ and a new Euro crisis threatens.
Quarter 2:
The fall in oil prices turns out to be partly due to a rapid slowdown in Chinese growth, and it becomes clear that the oil price will not recover quickly during 2015, this causes widespread default by US energy companies and a new banking crisis ensues on the back of a junk bond meltdown.
The UK elections end with a minority Labour/ SNP coalition, and while the Tories fall into the turbulence of a leadership challenge by Boris, the government fast-tracks the mansion tax, and a resurgent SNP with Salmon and Sturgen introduce new taxes on BTL in Glasgow and Edinburgh, and fuel a national debate about their merit, with many London MPs calling for their introduction in the South East.
Quarter 3:
With bank lending now tightened due to the junk bond crisis, deflation widespread despite a new round of bailouts and QE, Asian buy to leave investors pull out of high profile prime central London developments as the Asian banking system faces fallout from the Chinese slowdown. Prime central London property goes sharply negative, and begins to affect property prices at all levels in the capital, sending national property indices YOY negative.
Quarter 4:
Under pressure from the populism of maverick Labour MP Diane Abbott, and with no credible Tory candidate to replace Boris, the Labour mayoral front runner reacts to the challenge by pledging to introduce rent controls within the London area. This and already falling prices in the capital sparks a rapid sell-off by London BTLers and a national debate about rolling out rent controls nationally. Property falls sharply as it becomes clear that BTL is no longer attractive and there are no first time buyers to take up the slack.

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I just look at transaction volumes and they look like they are below the lows of 08/09 around my way and we all know what happened then

It`s just a question of what rabbits are left in the hat ,the one we know about, the rabbit called 20% discount AKA the gifted deposit bunny will probably increase transactions in the new build sector but remove demand from the rest of the market which is stone dead anyway (result of MMR?)

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The UK elections end with a minority Labour/ SNP coalition, and while the Tories fall into the turbulence of a leadership challenge by Boris, the government fast-tracks the mansion tax,

I see this as a strong possibility

But for entertainment value i would rather see Lab/Con coalition

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In the event of EZ instability, surely more money will flow into the London 'safehaven'? Memories of Cyprus are very fresh within EZ. A LabNats government will be very comfortable running up the tab on the UK credit card to 'spur growth'.

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I just look at transaction volumes and they look like they are below the lows of 08/09 around my way and we all know what happened then

It`s just a question of what rabbits are left in the hat ,the one we know about, the rabbit called 20% discount AKA the gifted deposit bunny will probably increase transactions in the new build sector but remove demand from the rest of the market which is stone dead anyway (result of MMR?)

Just feels to me like the Tories are going to have to find some more props before the election.

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Do Mayors of London have the legal authority to introduce rent controls? I would be absolutely flabbergasted if Blair's government handed them that power during the early 2000s devolution.

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Quarter 1:
Super prime London goes negative due to the large reduction in Russian buyers, pushing national HPI sharply down and igniting talk of a national property “slowdown” during 2015. Meanwhile, a Syriza victory in the Greek election sparks jitters in the EZ and a new Euro crisis threatens.

Prime London is already negative somewhere between 5 to 15%. And EAs describe the market above £2 millions as "dead" ...

Edited by Damik

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Sorry but I see the immediate future as: falling euro and falling oil causing inflation to fall below target and a lot of surplus cash to wash around the UK economy. A feelgood factor will be in full force by the time of the May general election. If Greece leaves the euro (and they probably won't) this will further depress the euro and increase the attraction of the UK as a safe harbour for spare cash. Net result is an economic boom but with no consequential inflation - George Osborne will hail himself as a genius.

The sh*t hits the fan at the general election though. TBH I wouldn't take any serious life decisions before we know who the next government is. We may end up with power split between Tories, Labour, UKIP and SNP. We might have several general elections in 2015 and the end of the year could be very different from the start. Investors hate uncertainty and a series of failed governments is not a recipe for inward investment.

Of course, as a naked nationalist I'm would relish the Russians, Chinese and Arabs taking fright and running away. Being a safe place for foreigners' money is not a good thing. Let them buy high and sell in the slump, I say.

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Do Mayors of London have the legal authority to introduce rent controls? I would be absolutely flabbergasted if Blair's government handed them that power during the early 2000s devolution.

I have no idea, but this happened recently...

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/mayoral-hopeful-abbott-proposes-50-levy-on-rents-above-local-caps-9912718.html

Whether she really would have the legal power to actually implement it as mayor is unclear from the article, but if it was a surcharge as proposed, then it's difficult to see how it would be different from the congestion charge from a legal perspective.

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Do Mayors of London have the legal authority to introduce rent controls? I would be absolutely flabbergasted if Blair's government handed them that power during the early 2000s devolution.

I'm pretty sure the answer is no, unless it was an optional scheme like the landlord register thingy :rolleyes: . Referring to the OP tho, a Labour/SNP government could give the mayor that power...

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Sorry but I see the immediate future as: falling euro and falling oil causing inflation to fall below target and a lot of surplus cash to wash around the UK economy. A feelgood factor will be in full force by the time of the May general election. If Greece leaves the euro (and they probably won't) this will further depress the euro and increase the attraction of the UK as a safe harbour for spare cash. Net result is an economic boom but with no consequential inflation - George Osborne will hail himself as a genius.

The sh*t hits the fan at the general election though. TBH I wouldn't take any serious life decisions before we know who the next government is. We may end up with power split between Tories, Labour, UKIP and SNP. We might have several general elections in 2015 and the end of the year could be very different from the start. Investors hate uncertainty and a series of failed governments is not a recipe for inward investment.

Of course, as a naked nationalist I'm would relish the Russians, Chinese and Arabs taking fright and running away. Being a safe place for foreigners' money is not a good thing. Let them buy high and sell in the slump, I say.

Could well be a sterling crisis towards end of the year or later

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It's just a bit of fun...

...But here’s a highly improbable, but not unfeasible HPC scenario for 2015.

Quarter 2:
The fall in oil prices turns out to be partly due to a rapid slowdown in Chinese growth, and it becomes clear that the oil price will not recover quickly during 2015, this causes widespread default by US energy companies and a new banking crisis ensues on the back of a junk bond meltdown.
The UK elections end with a minority Labour/ SNP coalition, and while the Tories fall into the turbulence of a leadership challenge by Boris, the government fast-tracks the mansion tax, and a resurgent SNP with Salmon and Sturgen introduce new taxes on BTL in Glasgow and Edinburgh, and fuel a national debate about their merit, with many London MPs calling for their introduction in the South East.

Far too soon. IF, say IF, the Tories lose/fail to lead the next government I just don't see Cameron doing the honorable Jon Major thing and stepping down immediately. Rather I expect he will see no reason to resign and expect to lead the party all the way through to the next election 5 years hence. Of course that won't last - politics eing the backstabbing cutthroat business it is. Some time, midway in the term, the growing discontent to replace him will make it all the way to a leadership election. Boris is too clever to know that he who wields the knife never takes the crown. He will run for leadership but likely wont prompt/be the cause of the election. That's my reading of the tealeaves anyway.

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Cameron WILL be ousted if he isn't PM in mid May

My guess is Cameron will be PM of a Conservative minority government, but it will take a month or two of failed coalition negotiations and mild constitutional crisis before this is put this in place. This minority government will collapse within a couple of years due to conflicts with and/or defections to UKIP of rightwing Conservative backbenchers, a leadership push by Boris+Osborne+May and a general inability to govern without a democratic mandate or a Commons majority.

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Cameron WILL be ousted if he isn't PM in mid May

Ousted is the better word, since I don't see him as the sort to voluntarily resign if he loses the election. He belongs to that modern class of elites who, in the business world/industry, expect 'rewards' even when they fail.

IF he doesn't jump then they will push him, for sure.

Edited by anonguest

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The sitting PM does have first dibs on forming the next government if there is no overal control. Cameron would get a few days to try to get a working coalition together, just like in 2010 when they negotiated with the Lib Dems and Gordon Brown clung to Number 10 like a limpet. A series of brief failed coalitions would not be good for the country.

If they SNP hold the balance of power they are likely to start looting the rest of the UK as their price for propping up a government. The English would not be happy about this and John Redwood (failed Tory leadership contender, remember) has positioned himself as champion of the English and rebel leader. Quite how an English revolt would manifest itself if a Labour/SNP pact took government is not clear; possibly the Lords would block all legislation. We could even see a taxpayer revolt with the English refusing to fund Scottish largess.

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If they SNP hold the balance of power they are likely to start looting the rest of the UK as their price for propping up a government. The English would not be happy about this and John Redwood (failed Tory leadership contender, remember) has positioned himself as champion of the English and rebel leader. Quite how an English revolt would manifest itself if a Labour/SNP pact took government is not clear

It's unlikely that Labour+SNP will be enough to form a majority government because SNP gains will be at Labour's expense and Labour are unlikely to make big gains in England and Wales. 280 Lab + 35 SNP = 315 MPs, need 325 for a majority.

If there is to be another coalition government it will likely have to be a 3 party coalition this time due to the upcoming slaughter of the Lib Dems meaning they will not have enough MPs to act as kingmakers.

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LAB SNP PLAID C LIB DEMS GREEN ED'S PM

True, though I would guess Lab+SNP+LibDem (280+35+25) would comfortably be enough to put Miliband in number 10. Salmond would have Ed's balls in a vice the entire time he was in government though.

Trouble for Cameron is that even Con+LibDem+UKIP+DUP might only barely squeak across the majority line (290+25+5+8 = 328, working majority of 2) and it would be fairly hilarious to watch in practice. Cameron must have half a dozen of his Spads reading Wikipedia articles about minority governments right about now.

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True, though I would guess Lab+SNP+LibDem (280+35+25) would comfortably be enough to put Miliband in number 10. Salmond would have Ed's balls in a vice the entire time he was in government though.

Trouble for Cameron is that even Con+LibDem+UKIP+DUP might only barely squeak across the majority line (290+25+5+8 = 328, working majority of 2) and it would be fairly hilarious to watch in practice. Cameron must have half a dozen of his Spads reading Wikipedia articles about minority governments right about now.

Where it gets interesting is if Labour get fewer seats than the Tories, but manage to successfully create a coalition and the Tories don't. Then we'll end up with a coalition of the losers. Add to that the possibility that UKIP could get twice as many votes as the LibDems, but end up with just 1 or 2 seats, vs the LibDems' 25-30, and there would be a rather strong argument that the FPTP system is no longer fit for purpose.

It's hard to see how the business of government could go on under this situation, and it's not clear that just holding another election within the year would make much difference.

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Where it gets interesting is if Labour get fewer seats than the Tories, but manage to successfully create a coalition and the Tories don't. Then we'll end up with a coalition of the losers. Add to that the possibility that UKIP could get twice as many votes as the LibDems, but end up with just 1 or 2 seats, vs the LibDems' 25-30, and there would be a rather strong argument that the FPTP system is no longer fit for purpose.

It's hard to see how the business of government could go on under this situation, and it's not clear that just holding another election within the year would make much difference.

My guess is that FPTP will hang on grimly until Labour and the Conservatives are getting less than 50% of the vote between them. For as long as the majority of the public still consider themselves red or blue voters they will be happy for FPTP to keep alternating power between these two parties. The combined Con+Lab vote has been falling steadily for decades from 70-80% in the 1980s and 1990s to the high 60%s in the 2000s to 65% in 2010. If that vote gets down into the low 60s in 2015 that will be a kind of progress.

I agree that another election soon after the May 2015 one will likely not result in a very different outcome. My guess is that 2015-2025 will be a decade of chaotic politics as electoral power shifts jerkily from the older haves to the younger have-nots. We could see a split in one or both of the largest parties as some MPs move into the new reality while others cling to the past.

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Labour/Tory coalition.

Obviously.

Labatory? Sounds like it will be toilet.

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