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jiltedjen

10 Signs Of A Stock Market Crash 2015

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322623/Ten-warning-signs-of-a-market-crash-in-2015.html

Nice little clear article. Puts together some indicators neatly.

Endless March upwards of stock markets will have to end sometime!

That was the mantra that Hugh Hendry stuck to year after year until he finally gave in and turned bull in December 2013. He's reported a very nice set of results since then. And he was completely correct, but how long it's going to take before the world's central banks finally fall off the tightrope is anybody's guess. I've expected it every year since they started printing. I'm just going to watch with no expectations from now on.

edit - sp

Edited by Fully Detached

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Journo pastes up an article based on a bunch of disparate "indicators" and claims prescience shocker.

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I would add no 11. extreme volatility in Q4 moving in a range from 6100-6800 and forming two troughs in mid October (during Ebolageddon) and mid December during the Oil Shock.

Interestingly he refers to the pros getting out.....Donald Trump said he had sold out early at the annual investors conference in the US recently. He also made reference to the free ride he had enjoyed on QE at 0.25% and the killing he had made on equities.

How you reconcile an FTSE that looks quite cheap( imo) to a DOW that looks toppy is another matter. Trouble is we will feel the headwinds if the DOW blows in spite of the fact we didn't follow it up.

Will still continue to trade the UK Market in 2015.

Edited by crashmonitor

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The key thing with this article is that it's the Telegraph's most read this morning.

If Carlsberg did mood music etc

Suckers.

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For some reason everyone these days believes and trades on the "Fed's got your back" / omnipotent central banks won't let anything bad happen idea.

When I bought my first ever shares (privatisation), "can't buck the market" was the mantra of the moment.

30 years and it's a different world (of beliefs).

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322623/Ten-warning-signs-of-a-market-crash-in-2015.html

Nice little clear article. Puts together some indicators neatly.

Endless March upwards of stock markets will have to end sometime!

Judge a forecaster by the quality of their previous forecasts, and on this basis Questor (the journalist concerned) isn't that great. True his tips were up up 12% in 2014, but that was largely due to one stand-out share, however in 2013 his tips were woeful. Average the two years and he's done no better than sticking a pin in the chart.

By the way, if you apply the same principle of going back and looking at the accuracy of predictions, you'll find huge swathes of pompous pundits who have been left with egg on their faces when their predictions of Zimbabwe levels of inflation across the west have proved to be complete tosh. Niall Ferguson is a good example, if Questor is indifferent then Ferguson is a total wipeout.

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Surprises me how bullish fellow HPCers are for the markets, surely the sentiment driving the stock markets is in part the same sentiment driving house prices?

have the central banks truely created a 'it's different this time' market?

are we in a new paradigm? some people seem to think sometime in 2016 we will see a crash, I think I'm the next few months. But do others think an endless March upwards? or a still 'permanently high Platue'.

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Journo evidently didn't notice the FTSE was actually down last year.

Move away from the headlines, add some FTSE dividends, diversify across some other asset classes, diversify across multiple countries, then minimise your investment expenses and taxes. 2014 end result should be nicely positive.

Once the final divi's are paid I should end 2014 up 5.6%. After inflation that's a real 3.6% and pretty close to the long run real average of 4% that I'm banking on.

Next add living well below your means and the world looks pretty good. The savings from LWBYM plus investment returns in 2014 have just moved me about 9% closer to financial independence in a single year.

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Surprises me how bullish fellow HPCers are for the markets, surely the sentiment driving the stock markets is in part the same sentiment driving house prices?

it's a matter of fair value.

the PE on the dow is high because the bond market+interest rates are still artificially low.(i think presently the index is around 29* earnings, while FTSE is somewhere around 16*...which is pretty much normal)

the US at the moment is "the cleanest dirty shirt".....thats why people are flocking to presumed safety, but it's been overdone.

if and when interest rates rise,then yes I can see a lot of sector rotation happening,the DOW could retrace back to something like 13000( 30% correction is not actually that bad)

the bond markets will absolutely tank....which actually is not a bad thing either as it will flush out the artificial debt.

Edited by oracle

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Commodity collapse

Commodity markets have been the lead indicators for a global slowdown, as the prices for oil and iron ore more than halved in value last year. The Bloomberg Global Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 commodity prices around the world, fell to fresh five-year lows on Friday at 104.17.

Other markets will begin to look cheap, leading some money to exit. Snapchat - which I admit to knowing very little about other than basics - thought worth $10 Bn? From memory Grantham expects Fed to look on S&P 500 to break through and exceed 2,250 for a 'fully fledged bubble' although keeps options open for correction before that.

Re commodity quote above, charts below, but I am not inferring too much from them.

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excellent chart, so looks like commodities could bottom early 2015 and stocks could take until late 2016 to bottom

Why? Could just as easily be 1994 from that chart. Theres no validity in cherrypicking 1 occurrence. Its nonsense (or luck)

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They haven't had NASDAQ at new highs yet.

I know it's now almost 15 years since that NASDAQ/dotcom stockmarket mania (my goodness how time flies!)....... BUT I still remember it like it was yesterday - such was the extent of the mania.

I guess I was one of the few that, long before I had become aware of big name contrarian investors/bears (like Schiff, Faber, etc), I independently recognised it for what it was - in part through my slightly better than average knowledge of history including major landmark events such as the Wall Street crash, Tulipmania, etc. It was indeed difficult holding ones silence for so long as all those around me derided me, even outright laughed at me, for my not grasping the new era, etc etc.

Needless to say I fully enjoyed rubbing pounds of salt into the wounds of their subsequent financial losses and having the last laugh......

You comment that we have not yet, quite, reached the previous all time highs in the NASDAQ.

I see it differently.

After that bubble popped I honestly expected NASDAQ 5000 not to be seen again for 25+ years, given the above mentioned level of sheer lunacy that ensued back then (vis a vis stock valuations) The fact that we are already so close to that level, in such a short time, is testament enough to how out of hand things have got in the equity markets - and how much QE has flooded the markets.

Maybe the coming(???) pullback in equity prices will knock it back down to a more reasonable growth rate trendline and then take the remaining 10-ish years (of my 25+ year prediction) to finally get back up to that 5000+ level. ????

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it all looks like a gigantic bubble to me, we must be due a correction very soon. Im out of shares at the moment and sitting back i'm non-bias stocks going up or down currently has no effect on me. I have considered buying shares but as anonguest has stated there isnt a good reason for shares to have hit such gigantic heights in a relatively short period of time especially just after an almost system destroying crash.

NASDAQ looks like it should be sitting between 1500 to 2200 for its long term growth. 5000 is certainly possible but definitely not sustainable. When the correction comes it looks like it may overshoot down to 1300 to 1400.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11322623/Ten-warning-signs-of-a-market-crash-in-2015.html

Nice little clear article. Puts together some indicators neatly.

Endless March upwards of stock markets will have to end sometime!

Come to think of it ...

This is formulaic clickbait. As is any article promising a list of [number of] [reasons for] [something].

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