Independent Body: No Hpc

[beenhearingthisforyears]

If even independent bodies are citing no big HPC next couple of years then how long can people feasibly wait? And interested in the people on these boards who are actually in process of buying. As some people just CANNOT wait and have been posting on this forum explaining their reasons.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...8&in_page_id=57

don't shoot the messenger.

Respect the people who are prepared to wait and they seem to have very good evidence to support their case. But my argument has always been about different market conditions in different areas of uk as this report today SEEMS to confirm.

[IP Newcomer]

If even independent bodies are citing no big HPC next couple of years then how long can people feasibly wait? And interested in the people on these boards who are actually in process of buying. As some people just CANNOT wait and have been posting on this forum explaining their reasons.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...8&in_page_id=57

don't shoot the messenger.

Respect the people who are prepared to wait and they seem to have very good evidence to support their case. But my argument has always been about different market conditions in different areas of uk as this report today SEEMS to confirm.

Hometrack issue a projection which says that house prices may grow at a slower rate than my bank balance. And why should I be impressed?

[jon]

Doesn't mention likely effect of SIPPs. Maybe nobody's told them yet ...

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Hometrack issue a projection which says that house prices may grow at a slower rate than my bank balance. And why should I be impressed?

because there are people reading this forum with the sign in "terrified" and if they state in their posts they HAVE to buy and all they read here is 50% crash, then surely it could be welcome news to them? money in shares/bank does not make a family home.

Edited December 7, 2005 by beenhearingthisforyears

[FollowTheBear]

On the other side of the story, THIS independant body says there is going to be a house prices crash. You may want to check the link.

house..er..crash,,something

[Ferret]

If even independent bodies are citing no big HPC next couple of years.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...8&in_page_id=57

RBA warning of 'meltdown'

David Uren, Economics correspondent

27sep05

FURTHER rises in oil prices, the collapse of a major bank or an unexpected jump in inflation could be all it takes to send the increasingly fragile global financial system into meltdown.

The Reserve Bank of Australia warned yesterday that the current calm in financial markets could be the prelude to a storm that could wreak havoc in the world economy.

The RBA believes the boom in markets for shares, bonds and housing in many countries is unsustainable.

[Duplex]

Fill you boots then, why bother preaching to a bunch of doom mongers?

[HPCheese]

If even independent bodies are citing no big HPC next couple of years then how long can people feasibly wait? And interested in the people on these boards who are actually in process of buying. As some people just CANNOT wait and have been posting on this forum explaining their reasons.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...8&in_page_id=57

don't shoot the messenger.

Respect the people who are prepared to wait and they seem to have very good evidence to support their case. But my argument has always been about different market conditions in different areas of uk as this report today SEEMS to confirm.

Hometrack's predictions have been consistently wrong for the last 12 months. Infact, I'm pretty sure that over 3 months this year they adjusted their YOY predictions from +5%, to 0%, to -5%.

They have never made a reliable prediction, and I don't think this one is any different.

[apom]

If even independent bodies are citing no big HPC next couple of years then how long can people feasibly wait? And interested in the people on these boards who are actually in process of buying. As some people just CANNOT wait and have been posting on this forum explaining their reasons.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...8&in_page_id=57

don't shoot the messenger.

Respect the people who are prepared to wait and they seem to have very good evidence to support their case. But my argument has always been about different market conditions in different areas of uk as this report today SEEMS to confirm.

I am an independent body sunshine.

Here is a fact.

everything else aside.

the debt burden required to keep the prices at this level would cripple the economy within four years.

Now this is not a maybe.. slightly difficult.. trying times.

There is not enough money in the economy to pay for them.

this cannot be argued.

and infact no bull has ever tried.

It is just simple maths.

Please.. you sound educated. can you argue this point...

Please.. every other bull has avoided this one like the plague..

seems simple maths really ruin the bulls argument.

P.s I have been offered a new build flat that was being sold last years for £170,000 for £130,000

how do you define a crash.??

£40,000 saving seems like a nice thing..

Here is enother point. they have fallen five times since the war.

always after a boom.

and everytime the experts say it will be different.

everytime they have been wrong..

and every boom and bust has done the same.

every speculative market.

Everytime.

without fail..

some of us can't tell when smoke is being blown up their bottoms..

others can.

I can.

can you?

Edited December 7, 2005 by apom

[Badlad1967]

Beenhearingthisforyears,

I wouldn't agree that Hometrack are independant, but still, each to his own.

Have you read the excerpts from what the media was reporting during the last crash? By most accounts, no crash was happening until it was all over... The headlines are a good read and quite funny when you compare the similarities with what is happening today. Desperation to keep the pyramid scheme going for a little longer...

The truth is no one can be certain what is going to happen in the future, but all the evidence points to quite a pronouced HPC. The smart money has already left.

I did like your point regarding other people's sign-in names. Especially when I saw yours. Made me chuckle

[IP Newcomer]

because there are people reading this forum with the sign in "terrified" and if they state in their posts they HAVE to buy and all they read here is 50% crash, then surely it could be welcome news to them? money in shares/bank does not make a family home.

But as I've said, it's not news - it's a projection - and is Hometrack really independent? It's main clients are Estate Agents:

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/business/

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Fill you boots then, why bother preaching to a bunch of doom mongers?

I stupidly thought this forum was for discussiom of the possibility/severity of a HPC? I have been abused and threatened (no problem with that as think it kind of shows the people who resort to this kind of behavoir for what they are)

yet there are OTHERS posting who are actually in process of buying......

with at least 90%? bearish posts on here, surely a little balance can be allowed? or will i just get "f$$k o££ you wa&&er"............is that really the best response you can offer to INDEPENDENT analysis that is being read by the majority of the UK. (not directed at you btw.)

[apom]

I stupidly thought this forum was for discussiom of the possibility/severity of a HPC? I have been abused and threatened (no problem with that as think it kind of shows the people who resort to this kind of behavoir for what they are)

yet there are OTHERS posting who are actually in process of buying......

with at least 90%? bearish posts on here, surely a little balance can be allowed? or will i just get "f$$k o££ you wa&&er"............is that really the best response you can offer to INDEPENDENT analysis that is being read by the majority of the UK. (not directed at you btw.)

true... and for the most part people will respond politly,

your artilce was a little goading...

but that does not justify abuse.

and granted if everyone thought like us there would be a crash.

they don't.

and if everyone thought like you there wouldn't be a crash until the economy had an embolisim..

Lets pray not enough do.

I asked you a question above.

Can you try to answer it.

and inflation would allow prices to stay where they are.. But that is cheating and the MPC's primary role is to stop that.

so, have a read of the question, I honestly would like to hear a bulls argument.

I have ben asking for a year the same question of every bull and not one had tried..

Granted, one swung sipps at it.. and that was the closest I had heard..

But thats gone now..

so can you have a pop.. please

Only I beleive in a crash, every single economic pointer is.. well.. pointing toward one..

but I might be wrong and as I am basing my life decisions on being better educated and aware then the common herd I need to be right.

I will change my opinion if you can convince me that the economy can sustain the current house prices and the debt required over the short term. (say three years.)

cheers

Apom

[coolaftershave]

I stupidly thought this forum was for discussiom of the possibility/severity of a HPC? I have been abused and threatened (no problem with that as think it kind of shows the people who resort to this kind of behavoir for what they are)

yet there are OTHERS posting who are actually in process of buying......

with at least 90%? bearish posts on here, surely a little balance can be allowed? or will i just get "f$$k o££ you wa&&er"............is that really the best response you can offer to INDEPENDENT analysis that is being read by the majority of the UK. (not directed at you btw.)

Not too sure what you mean by abused and threatened... have read the above chat history there are

no threats. Webmaster: Has the above been edited? Have I got the wrong end of the stick?

As for "shows the people who resort to this kind of behaviour" don't like the spin your putting on the regular posters.

Take the balenced view is something that VIs say with a big smile and a sweaty forehead to rope you in at the moment.

About this site: I am soooooooo glad I found it. Not a regular poster but a regular reader.

[beenhearingthisforyears]

I am an independent body sunshine.

Here is a fact.

everything else aside.

the debt burden required to keep the prices at this level would cripple the economy within four years.

Now this is not a maybe.. slightly difficult.. trying times.

There is not enough money in the economy to pay for them.

this cannot be argued.

and infact no bull has ever tried.

It is just simple maths.

Please.. you sound educated. can you argue this point...

Please.. every other bull has avoided this one like the plague..

seems simple maths really ruin the bulls argument.

P.s I have been offered a new build flat that was being sold last years for £170,000 for £130,000

how do you define a crash.??

£40,000 saving seems like a nice thing..

Here is enother point. they have fallen five times since the war.

always after a boom.

and everytime the experts say it will be different.

everytime they have been wrong..

and every boom and bust has done the same.

every speculative market.

Everytime.

without fail..

some of us can't tell when smoke is being blown up their bottoms..

others can.

I can.

can you?

I can only go on what i see. Employment is at an all time high. I do KNOW that people are in huge debt on credit cards ect. but still the banks pump out new % deals. Yes they now have restrictions / charges for transfers etc but until they are pulled then people will switch their debts around until they get to the limit and bank says "no more". In parts of Cambridgeshire new builds are £123,000 for 2 bed semi. a couple with a lodger can and are able to afford this. All the new builds were snapped up on new build i went to see last week. And most were FTB's . Older couples are downsizing and moving to smaller flats/bungalows etc in THIS area. I can not see why a developer would lie and tell me they have sold out when i am standing there trying to enquire what is available? Of course they lie about everything else............

Another big trend is "pack them in" when LL puts 2 per room per 3 bed house and charge each person. This is happening all over . This really ups the rental yield and in these properites the LL is not interested in replacing the fixtures and making it "nice" and could ?? be ONE! reason why B&q are on their knees. My argument is SOME areas are still doing ok. not in other parts as i do not know. But just as the "rise" started in the South and spread out, perhpas a fall will start in the North and spread South?? Last in 1st out scenario? I am not a fool and know things can change at any given moment and i do worry about personal debt and unemployment. If i was 100% sure of the future i would not be on these boards...... and just wish others could see/accept that............(not directed at you as i appreciate your time in responding with a constructive reply)

[Mushroom]

I stupidly thought this forum was for discussiom of the possibility/severity of a HPC? I have been abused and threatened (no problem with that as think it kind of shows the people who resort to this kind of behavoir for what they are)

yet there are OTHERS posting who are actually in process of buying......

with at least 90%? bearish posts on here, surely a little balance can be allowed? or will i just get "f$$k o££ you wa&&er"............is that really the best response you can offer to INDEPENDENT analysis that is being read by the majority of the UK. (not directed at you btw.)

I won't abuse you.

I'm here because, having seen this twice before, I know an irrational boom when I see one.

Now, by good fortune, not planning, I've never suffered because of the previous booms.

I also know that "indepedence" by any reporting body should be severely examined.

I also look at the "bigger picture", which you would know if you have read my posts in threads concerning China etc.

So many of the "old countries" are caught up in this debt led consumer driven economic growth which, imo, just cannot continue.

Now of course this dissection of the "big picture" doesn't always help the individual in their decisions.

Which is where you're on your own I'm afraid.

So, you believe the sources you want and I'll believe those I want.

Just remember, most people and organisations are "conservative" and don't like radical change.,

[apom]

I can only go on what i see. Employment is at an all time high. I do KNOW that people are in huge debt on credit cards ect. but still the banks pump out new % deals. Yes they now have restrictions / charges for transfers etc but until they are pulled then people will switch their debts around until they get to the limit and bank says "no more". In parts of Cambridgeshire new builds are £123,000 for 2 bed semi. a couple with a lodger can and are able to afford this. All the new builds were snapped up on new build i went to see last week. And most were FTB's . Older couples are downsizing and moving to smaller flats/bungalows etc in THIS area. I can not see why a developer would lie and tell me they have sold out when i am standing there trying to enquire what is available? Of course they lie about everything else............

Another big trend is "pack them in" when LL puts 2 per room per 3 bed house and charge each person. This is happening all over . This really ups the rental yield and in these properites the LL is not interested in replacing the fixtures and making it "nice" and could ?? be ONE! reason why B&q are on their knees. My argument is SOME areas are still doing ok. not in other parts as i do not know. But just as the "rise" started in the South and spread out, perhpas a fall will start in the North and spread South?? Last in 1st out scenario? I am not a fool and know things can change at any given moment and i do worry about personal debt and unemployment. If i was 100% sure of the future i would not be on these boards...... and just wish others could see/accept that............(not directed at you as i appreciate your time in responding with a constructive reply)

Employment is at an all time low.

It would be if the Public sectors jobs paid for of our taxes had not increased just ahead of the massive private sector job losses.

also, check the nubers on disability...

smoke and mirrors.

I have rented for years.. I have never seen the 3 per room that we are told about.

and the average new mortage is £130,000

[Duplex]

I can only go on what i see.

Then see this.

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Then see this.

I do see the figures and they terrify me. But on Friday i was out of Uk and watched bbc World News story re: US economy. The feature stated how "US economy is turning the corner".

How many people around the World saw this feature and will feel reassured?? I just dont see why the BBC would be biased?

I also know that a height of dot com boom people rushed in b/c they felt like they were missing out........then the massive crash occurred. as i said i have a more moderate view of what will occur regarding HPC but if i believed all was ok i would be out buying up property...... not spending time on here.

and no abuse on this thread - but last week abusive post was removed by moderator. IT does not bother me, as the only people i take seriously are people like yourself who have a compelling view point and can back up their case. Being called a wa$$er/troll.........well i'll get over it..........

[Duplex]

Beehearingthisforyears

The BBC is a populist, highly editorialised news source, the news presentation is decided by a small group of senior staff. You should source your information from contrasting viewpoints before reaching an informed opinion.

For instance;

http://www.globalchange.com/deflation.htm

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Beehearingthisforyears

The BBC is a populist, highly editorialised news source, the news presentation is decided by a small group of senior staff. You should source your information from contrasting viewpoints before reaching an informed opinion.

For instance;

http://www.globalchange.com/deflation.htm

i

Must admit not heard of many of the sites mentioned on these boards but appreciate i need to source information from more than BBC/C4 etc. cheers.

[Catch22]

i

Must admit not heard of many of the sites mentioned on these boards but appreciate i need to source information from more than BBC/C4 etc. cheers.

Nicely done BHTFY easing of the gas pedal like that, I like your style, you could apply for one of them there MI5 infiltration positions.........if job opportunities dry up in the coming housing market correction.

[beenhearingthisforyears]

Nicely done BHTFY easing of the gas pedal like that, I like your style, you could apply for one of them there MI5 infiltration positions.........if job opportunities dry up in the coming housing market correction.

?????????? whatever you say mate...................i was accused of provoking in my last thread so this time trying to show some balance. and I stand by MY points of view. they are moderate and that has not changed. i dont expect you to agree with me just as i don't "get" your point of view, or understand your sarcastic posts . sure they are extremely funny........... yawnzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Edited December 7, 2005 by beenhearingthisforyears

[IPOD]

A ) Hometrack is not an independent entity by any stretch of the imagination. As has been pointed out previously, the majority of their revenue is derived from estate agents.

B )

All the new builds were snapped up on new build i went to see last week. And most were FTB's . Older couples are downsizing and moving to smaller flats/bungalows etc in THIS area. I can not see why a developer would lie and tell me they have sold out

You REALLY cannot see the incentive that the developer has to exaggerate the demand for the properties he has built (and wants to get shot of ASAP)?

[munro]

BHTFY, I don't think you can read too much in Cambridgeshire. I live in Cambridge where it is, frankly, insane. I know there are areas of Cambridgeshire where prices are lower, but not by a great deal. But this part of the country is not typical at all; there are loads of jobs round here, not least because no-one can live on what they pay. Sure there are loads of HMOs in Cambridge and lots of rentals but this reflects a strong local employment market and a lot of students. Even so there's shedloads of building going on, at prices that bear little relation to people's incomes - compare prices with the wages in the local paper. Of course you can move further out but the commuting is a nightmare. And there's a limit to how high the population density can go. Have to admit I'm thinking seriously of moving from here in a few years' time as frankly Cambridge is becoming unbearably overcrowded.

What I notice when I go elsewhere is how much poorer other places are, and how much more run-down - and less crowded! - they look.

Problem is the bulls are running on empty and a problem with a sentiment-driven market that's lost it's grip on fundamentals is that corrections can be vicious.