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Family Gatherings Over Xmas; How Are The Generations Faring?

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Many of us would have spent some time over xmas with family members from different generations… its a chance to see how people are doing, what their opinions are now.

How did that go for everyone?

Are the lucky guessers who got into buy to let dressing like the beckhams and convinced they are financial geniuses?

Are the boomers cheerfully ignoring their adult children's woes as they equity release their way around the world on cruise ships?

Are there family members living in relative poverty because of their birth date in relation to the bubble?

Could you bite your tongue whilst playing monopoly?

Any fist fights?

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Many of us would have spent some time over xmas with family members from different generations… its a chance to see how people are doing, what their opinions are now.

How did that go for everyone?

Are the lucky guessers who got into buy to let dressing like the beckhams and convinced they are financial geniuses?

Are the boomers cheerfully ignoring their adult children's woes as they equity release their way around the world on cruise ships?

Are there family members living in relative poverty because of their birth date in relation to the bubble?

Could you bite your tongue whilst playing monopoly?

Any fist fights?

Had one conversation with a set of boomers about some buy to lets they were looking at.....not in the inheritance line there so bit my tongue entirely.

Also had a chat with the in laws who started talking about the housing ladder and I had to explain them how things work (or don't work) these days. They couldn't understand why, as someone who owns a slice of a crappy slum (the bank owns most of it), I would rather house prices went down 30% rather than up 30%.

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Many of us would have spent some time over xmas with family members from different generations… its a chance to see how people are doing, what their opinions are now.

How did that go for everyone?

Are the lucky guessers who got into buy to let dressing like the beckhams and convinced they are financial geniuses?

Are the boomers cheerfully ignoring their adult children's woes as they equity release their way around the world on cruise ships?

Are there family members living in relative poverty because of their birth date in relation to the bubble?

Could you bite your tongue whilst playing monopoly?

Any fist fights?

Yep sounds about right and to top it off my health is starting to give me problems at the ripe old age of 35.

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I get to see some fairly distant relations getting progressively more crazy with each passing year. They had some incredible luck, a large component of which was provided by the housing bubble, and as time passes and normality is held back by scheme after scheme they become more and more convinced they earned it and deserve it.

I believe the notion of deserving it or just being lucky must play on their mind somewhat, the woman of the couple upon rolling a dice in a game got the number she needed. She then proudly proclaimed, with no prompting or reaction from anyone, that 'you make your own luck!'. It was incredibly out of place, out of nowhere. Everyone else just looked at one another.

Reality is so distorted for some people, its fascinating to watch. Did she really believe she expertly rolled the dice to the number she required? Or was she waiting for an opportunity to make that statement for hours?

I know some successful people that didn't ride a bubble they don't understand to get there. All of them admit that along the way luck played a part. The ones that don't admit that, are the housing bubble riders.

How will they reconcile their view with reality when the train comes off the tracks? I will watch with morbid fascination.

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The dice story is telling

Making your own luck is an exercise in being positioned to weather bad luck but then making the most of good luck when it happens. It's not about psychic powers like this boomer you mentioned seems to think.

A previous boomer boss of mine reckoned he could predict roulette numbers, speculated on houses too, I think SOME boomers have really deeply decided to reject rationalism in favour of instincts for some time now, of course it's been reinforced so why not. Problem is people like this still constitute much of middle management

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I get to see some fairly distant relations getting progressively more crazy with each passing year. They had some incredible luck, a large component of which was provided by the housing bubble, and as time passes and normality is held back by scheme after scheme they become more and more convinced they earned it and deserve it.

I believe the notion of deserving it or just being lucky must play on their mind somewhat, the woman of the couple upon rolling a dice in a game got the number she needed. She then proudly proclaimed, with no prompting or reaction from anyone, that 'you make your own luck!'. It was incredibly out of place, out of nowhere. Everyone else just looked at one another.

Reality is so distorted for some people, its fascinating to watch. Did she really believe she expertly rolled the dice to the number she required? Or was she waiting for an opportunity to make that statement for hours?

I know some successful people that didn't ride a bubble they don't understand to get there. All of them admit that along the way luck played a part. The ones that don't admit that, are the housing bubble riders.

How will they reconcile their view with reality when the train comes off the tracks? I will watch with morbid fascination.

I was with you right up until the last sentence. There's every chance the train won't come of the tracks and consequently a lot of insufferably pompous people will die smug and happy. Bad things happen to good people, good things happen to bad people, that's just the way it is. There's no invisible moral hand guiding outcomes.

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I was with you right up until the last sentence. There's every chance the train won't come of the tracks and consequently a lot of insufferably pompous people will die smug and happy. Bad things happen to good people, good things happen to bad people, that's just the way it is. There's no invisible moral hand guiding outcomes.

+1, sadly

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Friend of ours had some luck.

brother dead.

Sister dead. Both divorced and heirless downline.

Father and mother dead,

all this luck...plenty of houses inherited and sold....so so lucky.

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I think SOME boomers have really deeply decided to reject rationalism in favour of instincts for some time now, of course it's been reinforced so why not. Problem is people like this still constitute much of middle management

Bad things happen to good people, good things happen to bad people, that's just the way it is. There's no invisible moral hand guiding outcomes.

This is a problem. The invisible moral hand in the recent past hasnt so much been moral, but it has been rational. You do stupid things and you get punished. So you stop doing stupid things.

Take that feedback away for long enough and people do more and more stupid things. "But how do I know the things they do are stupid", they might say. "Look, I got into buckets of debt on a one way bet on housing and it worked out! Therefore not stupid! Responsible people are stupid!".

It works until it doesn't. This is a relatively recent and short lived phenomenon. Has the very nature of reality entered a new paradigm? Look closely enough and you will see the schemes, help to buy, all the rest. Its not that they are smart, they made a bet and it paid off. This time. So far. It was still a bet.

But the longer being irrational looks like it works, the more ingrained being a dumbass becomes in our society. And in the longer term that is a problem for all of us.

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This is a problem. The invisible moral hand in the recent past hasnt so much been moral, but it has been rational. You do stupid things and you get punished. So you stop doing stupid things.

Take that feedback away for long enough and people do more and more stupid things. "But how do I know the things they do are stupid", they might say. "Look, I got into buckets of debt on a one way bet on housing and it worked out! Therefore not stupid! Responsible people are stupid!".

It works until it doesn't. This is a relatively recent and short lived phenomenon. Has the very nature of reality entered a new paradigm? Look closely enough and you will see the schemes, help to buy, all the rest. Its not that they are smart, they made a bet and it paid off. This time. So far. It was still a bet.

But the longer being irrational looks like it works, the more ingrained being a dumbass becomes in our society. And in the longer term that is a problem for all of us.

The more wrong they get, the more I have to pay. Doesn't feel fair.

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Talking to someone middle aged, quite concerned because the bank that holds their mortgage keeps writing to ask them how they will be paying the balance back due in full 12 years time, what was their repayment plan?....over £200k IO.....there isn't one. ;)

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It works until it doesn't. This is a relatively recent and short lived phenomenon. Has the very nature of reality entered a new paradigm? Look closely enough and you will see the schemes, help to buy, all the rest. Its not that they are smart, they made a bet and it paid off. This time. So far. It was still a bet.

But the longer being irrational looks like it works, the more ingrained being a dumbass becomes in our society. And in the longer term that is a problem for all of us.

This.

It did not work for my Grandparents, who would have been 100ish if they were alive,

It worked very well for parents - 70s esp. considering the dole hole paid of their endowment interest for the last 15 years.

There was enough inflation to make the capital repayment managable on a low income.

People in their 50s + 60s are sort of ahead but have not real available exit esp. in the North where the demographics are really bad - there's a fraction of people buying compared to selling.

As the UK moves forward I would expect most post 2002 IO BTL to blow up.

I'm also expecting a large public sector layoss outside of education + NHS, a quick scan shows the majority of these people are 40+.

I'm also expecting some form of default on public sector pensions.

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This is a problem. The invisible moral hand in the recent past hasnt so much been moral, but it has been rational. You do stupid things and you get punished. So you stop doing stupid things.

Take that feedback away for long enough and people do more and more stupid things. "But how do I know the things they do are stupid", they might say. "Look, I got into buckets of debt on a one way bet on housing and it worked out! Therefore not stupid! Responsible people are stupid!".

It works until it doesn't. This is a relatively recent and short lived phenomenon. Has the very nature of reality entered a new paradigm? Look closely enough and you will see the schemes, help to buy, all the rest. Its not that they are smart, they made a bet and it paid off. This time. So far. It was still a bet.

But the longer being irrational looks like it works, the more ingrained being a dumbass becomes in our society. And in the longer term that is a problem for all of us.

Good point. But take a step back from Help To Buy and there's a more significant dynamic at play. Let's say someone bought a London property in the early 1980's, London's population had been falling for many years due to the flight to the suburbs, and you had to budget for double digit mortgage rates. With no more prescience than blind luck they then surfed a thirty year wave that brought us to today, ultra low interest rates and a London that's bursting at the seams. They weren't irresponsible, but they certainly weren't smart...they were just lucky. In the same way that their grandparents were unlucky to face conscription and the blitz, and their children were unlucky to face a world of sky high property prices, no final salary pensions, and big education bills.

I absolutely agree with your warnings about the risk of positive outcomes reinforcing irresponsible behaviour, but I don't believe that's the entire story when it comes to UK property. There's also the randomness of good and bad fortune at play, some generations just get an easier ride than others.

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We were invited to our inlaws new house in Surrey over Christmas, they paid £700K for it in April ( ! ) after coming back from hong kong, they have mentioned a couple of times that they have a HIUGE mortgage,

I had seen a photo of the outside and it looked impressive and I didn't really want to go and visit as I knew I'd get a wave of "how great our house is" rammed down my throat.

Anyways, when we get there, it's like a council estate ( disservice alert ) with no where to park, practically a single track road width to through this newish estate, It was f**king ugly.

Anyways, we get in and I am shocked how pokey it was. The doors were all those cheap plywood jobs, plinths in kitchen falling off, broken taps etc etc etc. It was obviously a 2nd hand new build and it looked it.

I feel sorry for them, they were rushed into buying at possible THE worst time. I think they get a bomad gift too. The bloke is 40 so he's maube got 10 good years of earnings in him!!!

They didn't mention their wonderful house, it was as if they were ashamed of it. I was waiting and waiting to be told how wonderful it was but it never came. My wife tried her best to talk it up to me but I pointed out the broken bits and the fact you could piss through the doors.

If their house is worth £700K then £700K has become, as we suspect, worthless.

Stranger tale too, of a generous estate agent. When the sale was going though, the vendor wouldn't budge on dropping the price because some roof work needed doing....the estate agent paid it out of their commission......says it all really.

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Talking to someone middle aged, quite concerned because the bank that holds their mortgage keeps writing to ask them how they will be paying the balance back due in full 12 years time, what was their repayment plan?....over £200k IO.....there isn't one. ;)

Maybe IO mortgages should be called 'loans' just to make sure there's no confusion.

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We were invited to our inlaws new house in Surrey over Christmas, they paid £700K for it in April ( ! ) after coming back from hong kong, they have mentioned a couple of times that they have a HIUGE mortgage,

I had seen a photo of the outside and it looked impressive and I didn't really want to go and visit as I knew I'd get a wave of "how great our house is" rammed down my throat.

Anyways, when we get there, it's like a council estate ( disservice alert ) with no where to park, practically a single track road width to through this newish estate, It was f**king ugly.

Anyways, we get in and I am shocked how pokey it was. The doors were all those cheap plywood jobs, plinths in kitchen falling off, broken taps etc etc etc. It was obviously a 2nd hand new build and it looked it.

I feel sorry for them, they were rushed into buying at possible THE worst time. I think they get a bomad gift too. The bloke is 40 so he's maube got 10 good years of earnings in him!!!

They didn't mention their wonderful house, it was as if they were ashamed of it. I was waiting and waiting to be told how wonderful it was but it never came. My wife tried her best to talk it up to me but I pointed out the broken bits and the fact you could piss through the doors.

If their house is worth £700K then £700K has become, as we suspect, worthless.

Stranger tale too, of a generous estate agent. When the sale was going though, the vendor wouldn't budge on dropping the price because some roof work needed doing....the estate agent paid it out of their commission......says it all really.

where in surrey

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In 12 years the property price will have more than doubled and the debt will have inflated away. I read it in the Daily Excess.

It was decided that a £120k caravan would be purchased from the equity....at last debt free. ;)

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FutureFIL decided to announce that the market was seriously overvalued and heading for a crash. He's a retired surveyor - usually keeps his opinions quiet.

FutureMIL still thinks property is the answer to everything and thinks we should buy.

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FutureFIL decided to announce that the market was seriously overvalued and heading for a crash. He's a retired surveyor - usually keeps his opinions quiet.

FutureMIL still thinks property is the answer to everything and thinks we should buy.

Senior surveyor I work with has just STR on the basis that he thinks the market could crash next year also........

OT, the topic of housing didn't crop up at Christmas thank god, would have made me wish I'd stayed in bed.

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Tried to explain to elderly MIL why I want a house price crash.

"But you own outright. You'll lose money!"

I get this a lot.

Tried to explain it's relative and that high house prices actually inhibit us moving (as fees, taxes, and everything else is higher) but it just doesn't go in.

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Tried to explain to elderly MIL why I want a house price crash.

"But you own outright. You'll lose money!"

I get this a lot.

Tried to explain it's relative and that high house prices actually inhibit us moving (as fees, taxes, and everything else is higher) but it just doesn't go in.

We're lucky enough to be in the same boat. People say the same thing to us. Until I point out that the price of an extra bedroom (which is what we'd move for) would fall.

We'll always need a house, so it's nominal value is of no relevance to me as I'm never going to go "short" a house and we're not leveraged.

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Senior surveyor I work with has just STR on the basis that he thinks the market could crash next year also........

OT, the topic of housing didn't crop up at Christmas thank god, would have made me wish I'd stayed in bed.

Visited relatives in north Lancashire (Lancaster area), their boomer views on high house prices being good, have reversed, seeing as their children are struggling

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I get to see some fairly distant relations getting progressively more crazy with each passing year. They had some incredible luck, a large component of which was provided by the housing bubble, and as time passes and normality is held back by scheme after scheme they become more and more convinced they earned it and deserve it.

I believe the notion of deserving it or just being lucky must play on their mind somewhat, the woman of the couple upon rolling a dice in a game got the number she needed. She then proudly proclaimed, with no prompting or reaction from anyone, that 'you make your own luck!'. It was incredibly out of place, out of nowhere. Everyone else just looked at one another.

Reality is so distorted for some people, its fascinating to watch. Did she really believe she expertly rolled the dice to the number she required? Or was she waiting for an opportunity to make that statement for hours?

Urghh. I'm more minded like Max from Mad Max 2. He searches a dead-guy's pockets for anything useful, first find a die/dice, which he looks at and then tosses away on the ground. No use for anything relying on randomness or mystical, when your life survival depends on making clear calculated rational decisions and actions, in a volatile dangerous world (market).

a2tb12.jpg

Pal went for their first Christmas at his parents... earlier in the year his parents upsized to big family house with lots of bedrooms (£500K+), including guest room above the detached garage... apparently so it's nice they can have family come over and stay at Christmas. Despite their sons and daughters living 50-100+ miles away, all renting small places with their young families.

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and a London that's bursting at the seams

As someone who lives in London it certainly doesn't feel like it's bursting at the seams: there are lots of visibly empty properties all over town, masses of very visible high rise residential construction and (from anecdotal experience) many under-occupied larger houses. While there are clearly many people who are crammed into inadequate housing I suspect this is more a case of misallocation caused by high prices, rather than actual physical shortage causing high prices.

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