Fully Detached Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Dec_2014.pdf ...and a healthy dose of seasonal adjustment to make the monthly figure positive. I know hardly anybody bothers listening to thee indexes any more, but posting it just for completeness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 BBC News Breakfast are spinning it like a top........ "don't worry, prices are still rising".......... . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skippysb Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice of them to 'seasonally adjust' the data for us before releasing it. We wouldn't want to get our brains hurt by looking at the actual data and interpreting it ourselves. When the ONS published its latest data recently, they also decided to seasonally adjust the interpretation for press release purposes so they show a monthly rise. However the data tables clearly showed a c.1% fall in prices for the month. Does anyone think that if prices rise, as they expect in the spring, that they will seasonally adjust the increases down or simply tell us prices are booming again? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice of them to 'seasonally adjust' the data for us before releasing it. We wouldn't want to get our brains hurt by looking at the actual data and interpreting it ourselves. When the ONS published its latest data recently, they also decided to seasonally adjust the interpretation for press release purposes so they show a monthly rise. However the data tables clearly showed a c.1% fall in prices for the month. Does anyone think that if prices rise, as they expect in the spring, that they will seasonally adjust the increases down or simply tell us prices are booming again? In fairness, my comment was facetious - seasonal adjustment is a perfectly valid and sensible mechanism to smooth out the noise of raw data. And the big HPI indexes will have to ensure that their seasonal adjustment nets out correctly, so a big adjustment up will have to be factored back down again in subsequent months. But it doesn't stop me from raising the odd eyebrow from time to time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papag Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Do you think we should recall parliament Cobra meetings emergency measures etc etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skippysb Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 In fairness, my comment was facetious - seasonal adjustment is a perfectly valid and sensible mechanism to smooth out the noise of raw data. And the big HPI indexes will have to ensure that their seasonal adjustment nets out correctly, so a big adjustment up will have to be factored back down again in subsequent months. But it doesn't stop me from raising the odd eyebrow from time to time I don't fully agree. Applying a seasonal adjustment curve to the data is OK as an aid to interpretation and provides an interpretation based on 'expert judgement' however applying it to a monthly figure without mentioning the actual data is a fiction. Did house prices rise in December as stated or did they not? I suspect they did not. They could say 'house prices fell in December, however this is to be expected at this time of year and when seasonality is applied .....' Etc. but choose not to. What are these indexes for, ultimately? Having said that I haven't tried to find the raw Nationwide data, I was just very surprised to see the ONS raw data recently and noted the decrease was quite marked and not 'as we are' compared to the previous year for the same period. I felt that ONS had not represented the data objectively in its press release. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The bursting london bubble will see these indexes go -'ve very quickly, even with small rises outside of london. Those small rises outside of london should then become BIG falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The bursting london bubble will see these indexes go -'ve very quickly, even with small rises outside of london. Those small rises outside of london should then become BIG falls. Yes indeedy. In more evidence of the rapidly cooling property market, three regions of the UK – the north-west, Yorkshire and Humberside, and Wales – recorded outright price declines in the final quarter of 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 May be just me but the seasonal adjustment always seems to be biased towards rising prices especially when it is corrected in the following month. When announced it is 0.5 (seasonally adjusted) and the following month the figure is corrected to 0.0 so that the next month with say 0.3 can be positive (it would be -ve without the 'correction'. Money lenders making it look like borrowing to buy an overpriced asset is a great idea. Surely not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I`d guess to the average person who can`t get credit, or has been trying to sell their house for years these stats mean nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fully Detached Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 May be just me but the seasonal adjustment always seems to be biased towards rising prices especially when it is corrected in the following month. When announced it is 0.5 (seasonally adjusted) and the following month the figure is corrected to 0.0 so that the next month with say 0.3 can be positive (it would be -ve without the 'correction'. Yes, that's a very fair point. Money lenders making it look like borrowing to buy an overpriced asset is a great idea. Surely not? As is that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Dec_2014.pdf ...and a healthy dose of seasonal adjustment to make the monthly figure positive. I know hardly anybody bothers listening to thee indexes any more, but posting it just for completeness. This is the best part for me, even if they then go onto something about it being 'surprising' because of soaring consumer confidence etc. Maybe fewer applicants for mortgages too because of the crazy high house prices, in many areas? Outlook for 2015“While the pace of house price growth has moderated in recent months, activity has slowed more sharply, with the number of mortgages approved for house purchase falling to their lowest level for 16 months in October (and 22% below the level prevailing at the start of the year). There's the 2nd PDF for Q4... Manchester having the 'worst' annual HPI performance with 0% growth. St Albans the 'best' performance with 24% hpi/more expensive. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Q4_2014.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awaytogo Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I`d guess to the average person who can`t get credit, or has been trying to sell their house for years these stats mean nothing. True Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The hpi is slowing against fairly reasonable to good economic numbers. NW have clearly seen the dropping transaction volumes through their business. They hope for 2015 but if is an election year so alot of uncertainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 (edited) Nationwide Annual Hpi 7.2% In Dec, Down From 8.5% In Nov So even with the seasonal adjustment we are still 1.3% down this month; annually nice 16.8% ... Not bad at all ... Edited December 30, 2014 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nationwide Annual Hpi 7.2% In Dec, Down From 8.5% In Nov So even with the seasonal adjustment we are still 1.3% down this month; annually nice 16.8% ... Not bad at all ... I guess all the indexes will soon show a april to july mega bubble peak. It looks like the tories have played a blinder and those government run indexes and government backed bank indexes will show good news right up until the election. If i were cynical id say the numbers were fiddled but no british government would lie like that to the public surely? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mewParadigm Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nationwide Annual Hpi 7.2% In Dec, Down From 8.5% In Nov So even with the seasonal adjustment we are still 1.3% down this month [...] No, the figures just mean that Dec 2014 is 7.2% above Dec 2013, while Nov 2014 was 8.5% above Nov 2013. The data at http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Dec_2014.pdfshows a 0.2% rise, seasonally adjusted (378.4 Nov 2014 to 379.3 Dec 2014) and a 0.4% drop non-seasonally adjusted ( £189,388 Nov 2014 to £188,559 Dec 2014). Still a drop, although one that seems to have passed the headline-writers by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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