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Labour Set For A Bloodbath In Scotland In General Election, Poll Says

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http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster

Labour is on course for a bloodbath in Scotland in 2015, according to a special Guardian/ICM online poll.

The Scottish National party, which took only 20% of the vote in the 2010 general election, has subsequently more than doubled its vote to reach a commanding 43% of the prospective poll next May. Scottish Labour, which secured a very strong 42% in Gordon Brown’s homeland last time around, has since tumbled by 16 points to just 26%.

The Conservatives sink from 2010’s 17% to 13%, while the great bulk of the 19% share that the Liberal Democrats scored last time around is wiped out as they fall by 13 points to 6%.

..

The SNP, meanwhile, would storm ahead from the mere six MPs it returned in 2010 to take a crushing majority of 45 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies. The Lib Dems, who currently hold 11 seats, would lose all but three, and the Tories would continue to languish with the single seat they currently hold.

It seems Labour plan of being dominant and powerful in Scotland has shall we say slightly backfired. It's hard to see how any of the big parties south of the border are ever going to recover in Scotland.

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http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster

It seems Labour plan of being dominant and powerful in Scotland has shall we say slightly backfired. It's hard to see how any of the big parties south of the border are ever going to recover in Scotland.

Where's that picture of the world's smallest violin when i need it?

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Another one of Gordon Brown's clever ideas blows up in their faces a few years down the line. Truely, we were priviledged to have been led by the best strategic brain in politics since, oooh, Screamin Lord Sutch.

At the mo, UK politics are fracturing. Rather than Labour and Cons, we are going to have a collection of rightish + leftish parties.

Both the large parties have abused their voters over the last 30 odd years.

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Another one of Gordon Brown's clever ideas blows up in their faces a few years down the line. Truely, we were priviledged to have been led by the best strategic brain in politics since, oooh, Screamin Lord Sutch.

At the mo, UK politics are fracturing. Rather than Labour and Cons, we are going to have a collection of rightish + leftish parties.

Both the large parties have abused their voters over the last 30 odd years.

If the SNP get 40 plus seats in Westminster then the UK itself is going to fracture sooner or later.

I give it 5 years more. Maybe 10 at the most.

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they really screwed up in the referendum, talking Scotland down for 2 years, then waiving some Saltires and yelling about being patriots in the last 3weeks. the damage was done. it will be long remembered, i actually think they are openly hated more than the Torries, and that takes some doing up here.. the demographics of the result show that the people who voted no were not typical lab types, they were simply people scared into believing they would lose out personally. they won't roll-out for the general election as they will not perceive the same threat. the yes vote seems fairly intact and determined to exact some retribution for the 2 year assault on their intelligence. Vote No was a campaign, and as such is over and wound down, vote Yes is a movement, and one that is quite happy to send a majority of scots mps to westminster to make mischief. if it reaches the fptp tipping point, it will be utter carnage for lab, but a more likely outcome will be the loss if about 60% of the seats.

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they really screwed up in the referendum, talking Scotland down for 2 years, then waiving some Saltires and yelling about being patriots in the last 3weeks. the damage was done. it will be long remembered, i actually think they are openly hated more than the Torries, and that takes some doing up here.. the demographics of the result show that the people who voted no were not typical lab types, they were simply people scared into believing they would lose out personally. they won't roll-out for the general election as they will not perceive the same threat. the yes vote seems fairly intact and determined to exact some retribution for the 2 year assault on their intelligence. Vote No was a campaign, and as such is over and wound down, vote Yes is a movement, and one that is quite happy to send a majority of scots mps to westminster to make mischief. if it reaches the fptp tipping point, it will be utter carnage for lab, but a more likely outcome will be the loss if about 60% of the seats.

so conservative election ploy in this case should be:

ok so SNP will wipe out labour and libdem in scotland...and will insist on removal of their military bases from faslane/clydeside.

and I think that is a commitment that should be upheld..along with very much greater autonomy for the regions- so tax and spend power for most stuff will be mostly autonamous within each area.

achilles heel here too.

in this event the tories/ukip should promise( to the regional electorate if they vote favourably,relocation+future shipbuilding contracts to tyneside,barrow in furness and belfast.(the first two areas being labour strongholds)

game over.

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It's not really for the SNP to insist on removal of trident from Scotland, as it is not a devolved power. There is no appetite in Scotland for a unilateral declaration of independence based on any general election result, and one would need to follow the other for such demands to be made, so it's not going to happen that way. The SNP have openly stated they will only discuss supporting a Labour government, the torries can go whistle dixie - and the upfront demand to that partnership of sorts is the removal of trident in Scotland. It would then be up to Labour to decide if that is a price worth paying and for the SNP to decide if it could better horse-trade tangible devo-max instead, as in reality, Labour can't really agree to the removal of trident and stay electable in england.

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I think a lot of people in Scotland are in complete denial about the oil price.

With an oil price of $200 an independent Scotland could be the new Kuwait, with a price of $50 it would be a basket case, with the recent trends ($60 and falling) it's looking like the latter is more likely.

The international oil price is being undermined by the advent of fracking and tar sands helped along by a global recession, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

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With an oil price of $200 an independent Scotland could be the new Kuwait, with a price of $50 it would be a basket case

Most European countries manage just fine without any oil at all. Plus Scotland is sitting on enough shale gas to meet its domestic energy needs and export to a certain NIMBY-dominated neighbour to the south for a very long time.

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