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Killer Bunny

2015 Economic Predictions Thread - Merged Topics

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I hope it continues for you. My prediction is for the stock market to be a better place to put you money than keeping it in cash. And people that hold cash carry on whingeing.

Not likely. So many bearish tendencies in global markets / assets..

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Farage has already said that Ukip will only enter a coalition in exchange for an immediate referendum then as far as he is concerned, it will be job done. Other than that I don't think he has any real ambition to be in government or politics.

and should that not be forthcoming or disagreeable to the rest of the people in the EU we are all being drafted to canada.

as in, military coup...no more EU,no more games., end of.

Edited by oracle

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bit playful but i think:

- They will raise VAT by 2.5%
- public sector less than inflation rises
- Large anti-cut rallies and strikes
- Drop interest rates to 0.25% in reaction to a stalled economy early in 2015 no effect on changed negative sentiment on housing market
- America wont raise interest rates
- Markets will trend lower, slightly more drawn out that in 07/08 but bottom out lower
- Becomes clear market peaked summer 2014 and the falls continue across the country slowly apart from London
- London sharply corrects having had most of the recently bubble then mirrors rest of the county
- Sterling gets hugely devalued, possible sterling crisis
- media goes into a 'must buy a house now frenzy'
- First of the bail-ins for depositor money across some of the PIGS
- Germany refuses QE
- bitcoin bubbles again in reaction to more bail-ins
- Gold starts to trend higher early 2015
- no war with Russia, Putin makes the west look foolish
- instability in china
- first use of water cannon in august
- Queen dies
- terrorist conduct a kidnapping, get caught
- 5th hottest summer
- ebola cases start to reduce
- more strange banker suicides
- 2 seater 'MINI' convertible
- retirement age raised again, inflation understated
- big supermarkets keep loosing ground
- house building stalls to lowest level in years

Probably not until mid 2015 that its super clear that stock markets have changed direction, then starts to crash.

Gold spikes, various schemes and law changes across the world to try and deter buying.

hung parliament.

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I predict that 99% of predictions will be wrong.

+1

I predict that HPC posters (myself included) will continue to post every little story declaring in to be the next black swan, until like a broken clock one of us gets it right! :P

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More 'forward guidance' from Carney; 'Interest rates will rise slowly or maybe more quickly or not at all depending on whether unemployment falls too quickly or falls too slowly and the slack in the economy is absorbed too quickly or not at all. If inflation falls then rates may need to rise and rates could rise if inflation picks up speed or GDP rises too quickly or starts to fall. Of course other factors such as the falling oil price could lead to an earlier rate rise but the ongoing problems in Europe could keep rates low for longer ... head winds .... choppy seas .... recovery .... growth .... growth ....growth '

I totally agree! All of that will happen for sure! :)

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I can't resist a prediction thread!

2015 Predictions

1. No party can achieve a majority in the May elections, still less the 325 or so seats needed for a reasonably stable working majority. So two predictions, first there'll be another coalition. And secondly, despite the new fixed term parliament legislation, there'll be another election before 2020.

2. Base rates will not exceed 1% in 2015.

3. Nominal UK house prices won't move up or down by more than 2% during 2015.

4. The US dollar will continue to strengthen.

5. FTSE dominated by Eurozone developments in 2015. If Mario Draghi prevails with meaningful QE then the FTSE will top 7000, more likely he won't and the FTSE will fall below 6000 on fears of a Euro exit and subsequent break up.

6. Despite oil prices increasing in the second half of 2015 inflation will remain well below the 2% target.

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My predictions (tried to put some interesting ones in there - not expecting to get them all right):

1. London House Price Crash to start in Spring, as election nerves set in.

2. Economies with the biggest rate of growth in the Euro zone to be Ireland, Spain and Greece

3. US interest rates to rise to 6%

4. UK rates to reach 5% by year-end.

5 A massive rise in evictions as people decide to "go nomad" (mainly using websites like airbnb)

6 Numbers of "self employed" to continue rising. WTC and HB expenditure to continue to soar.

7 A major supermarket chain (possibly Tesco) to fold and be broken up into smaller segments.

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I'll be amazed if Base higher than 1% in 2015.

Expect no rate rises for many years or if any they are reversed in short order to 0%

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My predictions (tried to put some interesting ones in there - not expecting to get them all right):

1. London House Price Crash to start in Spring, as election nerves set in.

2. Economies with the biggest rate of growth in the Euro zone to be Ireland, Spain and Greece

3. US interest rates to rise to 6%

4. UK rates to reach 5% by year-end.

5 A massive rise in evictions as people decide to "go nomad" (mainly using websites like airbnb)

6 Numbers of "self employed" to continue rising. WTC and HB expenditure to continue to soar.

7 A major supermarket chain (possibly Tesco) to fold and be broken up into smaller segments.

I predict this thread will get combined with the 2015 prediction thread that was previously posted.

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At the moment a significant jump in interest rates seems unlikely but the collapse in the oil and gas prices could change the current balance especially if as some are predicting the oil price has still got a good way to go before reaching bottom.

Its impact might provide the reason to start increasing rates if only as a political manoeuvre (because of the "recovery") and to move away from the lowest level since records began but it's difficult to see a reason for the rate to go above say 2% in 2015 as the economy is such a shambles and under the prevailing policies is likely to remain so for some time.

That's not to say there couldn't be a HPC in 2015 as a declining/rising oil price has correlated with declining/rising house prices in the past.

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Nothing bad to happen / be admitted to before the general election.

After the election, the ConLab coalition will blame everything on the Lib Dems.

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1) Massive swing to UKIP

2)Things to go very wrong (or right DOYPOV) in the EZ (spoke to someone from Greece recently who had just been home, "very bad" they said)

3) Small rate rise from the US, mainly to keep pressure on Russian currency

4)"Crisis" for one or more big retailers/supermarkets

5) More job losses in businesses that people can do without

6) Big slide in London house prices

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I predict this thread will get combined with the 2015 prediction thread that was previously posted.

Certainly should be

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Here's mine - I don't usually do this because I'm wrong most of the time. We're talking by the end of 2015/ average over 2015 here.

UK house prices: Broadly flat.

PCL will probably fall significantly in the first quarter, but whether this is just volatility or part of a protracted slump is probably dependant on the oil price and the general election outcome.

UK interest rates: To remain at all time lows.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a cut to 0.25%. I can't see a rise next year unless something very drastic happens, which by its very nature is unpredictable.

UK CPI: <2%

Deflation seems to be the order of the day, this will no doubt trigger a new wave of QE and other hair-brained government schemes. They'll help stop house prices from falling too much, but with the obvious consequences for anyone who actually works for a living, and for the continuation of the rise in political dissatisfaction.

FTSE 100:

End the year modestly higher - 7000ish, but with the possibility of some big volatility along the way as the consequences of energy price fluctuations play out. (Actually, this is just a wild guess).

UK general election:

It's looking like no overall majority with Labour receiving the largest number of seats. A formal coalition with the LDs would be deeply unpopular, so we may see a minority government with some unholy alliances along the way (The SNP and UKIP being the key players here). The political situation will be more uncertain after the election than now. Questions like: Will there be another election? Will there be a Lab/ Con /UKIP leadership challenge etc. will be continually asked.

With regards to house prices, I think politics is going to be more important than economics in determining outcomes during 2015. We know what the BoE response to economic adversity is - more QE, more incentives to borrow, more taxpayer subsidies. However future government policy is more uncertain. A mansion tax and London rent controls are both a possible outcome of elections during next year, but equally neither could happen. Ignoring the rights and wrongs of these policies, the consequences to HPI of them happening or not would be significant.

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A continuing decline of the value of the pound taking real house prices with it. Over the coming years this will form into a full blown sterling crisis, eventually export and wage growth will rise out of the ashes and house prices will seem quite affordable in the context of the new incomes, probably well after 2015 however. A further side effect will be that interest rates will nudge a little higher and people will start to lose faith in bonds and houses as stores of wealth. People with non index linked wealth (basically incorporating uk bonds or cash, cpi linked pensions, and uk property) will wonder where all their wealth went.

Edited by Si1

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I predict a 2016 predictions thread.

Another year of can kicking I reckon, with more novel schemes unveiled to prevent things blowing up - including HPI. Whether or not they succeed is open to question, but I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow managed to keep a lid on things for another year.

The tax take will continue to reduce due to people working more part-time, self employed/zero hours contracts that qualify for WTC.

Interest rates will barely move.

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Havent really thought it through but potentially Asian Financial Crisis focused mainly on China and SE Asia with knock on effects in Europe. US, Korea and Japan come through relatively unscathed.

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I see there are still inflationistas around. Contrary to all the evidence and trends.

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I reckon a sterling crisis. The current account deficit is screaming this.

I reckon the FED will start a long haul to normalise their rate to a low level - say 3%.

Despite the overdone focus on the chairman(woman), the Fed is a broad, geographically spread body.

Enough of the regional boards are aware that QE has just thrown more money to wall street.

I don;t think you'll see any EU QE.

The results from the BoE and US just show its a scam.

France's influence will further fall. Soon (maybe next year) there'll be a commitment to move away from EU agricultural support.

The sterling crisis will feed into inflation.

The election will be less bring no majority. This will make the gilt market unstable + rising.

I expect massive political unrest as a result of Labour losing its votes to the SNP.

I do not think the Cons will lose many seats to UKIP.

The Boe will have to respond to rising inflation with higher IRs - not massive but heading towards 3% rapidly.

I think the spread over base rates will be ~2% for a good, solvent borrower - so ~5% mortgage rate.

I expect tax credits to be hacked. The sensible thing would have been to start reducing by 10% from 2010.

I expect the working requirement to increase to 35/person.

I expect housing benefit to be capped and further reduced.

I expect there will be massive reductions outside of the NHS + education.

I expect the army + navy to be slashed. Army esp. as it showed itself to be pretty useless in Iraq +afghanistan.

I expect a move to regional councils. The remaining smaller city/town councils to massively reduced.

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If the FTSE 100 pattern since year 2000 is repeated again (2000 peak then the 2007 peak and now a possible 2014 peak - 7 year intervals) then there's the definite possibility of a repeat collapse with the FTSE 100 heading back down to around 4000 over the next year (or maybe two). The current pattern does seem to be rolling over.

Mind you it's difficult to see what the trigger would be to compare with the events leading upto the two previous collapses since year 2000. Maybe something to do with the collapsing oil and gas prices.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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