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Killer Bunny

2015 Economic Predictions Thread - Merged Topics

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10 from SAXO Bank (Jacob Steenson is a good guy generally)

1. UK housing sector to crash

2. Japanese inflation to hit 5%

3. China devalues Yuan by 20%

4. Draghi quits ECB

5. Russia defaults again

6. Internet hacks smash e-commerce

7. Volcanic eruption cancels Europe's summer

8. Cocoa futures hit a record USD 5000/tonne

9. UK seen leaning toward exit from the EU (Brexit) on UKIP election landslide

10.High-yield corporate bond spreads double

Personally, I can't see 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9

So maybe not such a good guy after all

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http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/195627-2014-economic-predictions/?hl=%2Bftse+%2B100+%2Bgold+%2Binflation+%2Bcrashmonitor#entry1102439273

my predictions for now last year............

GDP +3.4% (9/10)

HPI +7.0% (10/10)

Unemployment 5.5% (10/10)

Gold $1000 (4/10)

Pound/ dollar $1.70 ( 3/10)

CPI +2.5% (2/10)

FTSE 100 7500 (3/10)

Base Rate 1.0% (2/10)

It all started so well....should stick to what I understand GDP, unemployment and house prices as opposed to guessing other Markets.

Edited by crashmonitor

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There will be more phoney promises to appease UKIP voters and more slurrs on UKIP to try and discredit them.

Nothing will be done in the next parliament to address the housing issues in the UK - and no one will be brave enough to suggest a national social housing building program to deal with the current problems with housing stock size and quantity.

The BOE will threaten to up rates but won't have the cajones to do it.

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http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/195627-2014-economic-predictions/?hl=%2Bftse+%2B100+%2Bgold+%2Binflation+%2Bcrashmonitor#entry1102439273

my predictions for now last year............

GDP +3.4% (9/10)

HPI +7.0% (10/10)

Unemployment 5.5% (10/10)

Gold $1000 (4/10)

Pound/ dollar $1.70 ( 3/10)

CPI +2.5% (2/10)

FTSE 100 7500 (3/10)

Base Rate 1.0% (2/10)

It all started so well....should stick to what I understand GDP, unemployment and house prices.

Your GDP and HPI calls were uncannily accurate!

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Worldwide ponzi collapse. End of the 2009- cyclical 'recovery' and a return of the secular bear.

And Tesco to go sub £1

Edited by Sancho Panza

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A party which wants to continue using public the next generation's funds to prop up the housing market will win the 2015 General Election

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6 and 9 in the OP seem particularly unlikely to come about. What do they mean by UKIP landslide, just an increase in voters? Surely not outright victory.

- I'd say 2 to 5% in average house prices by December 2015.

- Labour to win GE, possibly in a coalition.

- Labour to introduce lots of stupid new laws.

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Not at 31/12/15 but by some time during year

S&P falls 10-20% (1750-1600)

US Ts rise 15-30% (TLT to 140-160).

10 year gilt yield falls to 1.5%

Gold rises 15-25% (1450/1550)

USD falls 5-10%

House prices fall 4-8% nationally

Base rate unchanged

National average earnings up 1.25%

CPI 0.7-1.2%

US Oil $30-40

On verra.

Edited by Killer Bunny

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Impossible to predict. The aim will be more of the same, if they achieve that result even if the future cost is an even bigger adjustment.

If they keep the plates spinning not much will alter.

However more low paid and part time jobs.

We will still have a smug chancellor.

House prices to be propped up by all means necessary.

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The Daily Mail will continue to insult us by constantly posting images of scantily-clad women online.

Whilst simultaneously campaigning against it.

Edited by Eddie_George

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6 and 9 in the OP seem particularly unlikely to come about. What do they mean by UKIP landslide, just an increase in voters? Surely not outright victory.

- I'd say 2 to 5% in average house prices by December 2015.

- Labour to win GE, possibly in a coalition.

- Labour to introduce lots of stupid new laws.

naah.

I think politics will be far more interesting now.

SNP wipe out labour in scotland#

tory-UKIP coalition in england.

labour exposed as doing horrific amounts of electoral fraud to maintain power.criminal proceedings instigated.

internationally, more and more "independence" movements across europe as stated by farage, in a general uprising against the "ubermensch" who have been dictating policy.(unfortunately this will include some rather unsavoury quasi-nazi parties as a backlash and counterweight to the enforced communism of late from the likes of barroso etc)

germany bottles it and says..no more, we ain't paying for those lazy southerners.

north-south split in europe .

Edited by oracle

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Do you guys think that london house prices may drop a bit, at all next year?

I work in london on a rubbish wage of 28k. I am buying on my own too.

If they dont drop then i am gonna have to move far out.

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I can just recycle my 2013 predictions as they still look OK to me. Just add 2 to the year

Prediction is difficult particularly about the future as Neils Bohr claimed.

Nonetheless, the UK's trend is pretty clear. Rentiers and resource monopolists of all types supported by the government will attempt to extract ever greater amounts of money from a shrinking productive base. This will continue until the whole edifice collapses. As the pool of wealth shrinks the rentiers will eventually end up fighting each other over what is left like crocodiles in a muddy pond in a drought. This may not happen in 2013 but it is coming.

And a horse will win the Derby

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I predict:-

  • the deficit will be £100B+ in 2015
  • more low paid/zero jobs/people declared as "self-employed"
  • lending rates for mortgages will continue to fall - with some lending rates going close to 1%.
  • inflation will be below 1%, particularly IF fuel prices at the pumps are cut; more Aldis/Lidls/poundshops will cater to a growing demand for frugal shopping
  • election will be Tory/UKIP coalition, but UKIP will morph into a less strident party and you'll see their truly political side emerge. In/Out referendum moved from 2017 (guaranteed by Cameron already) to 2016 as a compromise betwen the two parties. Even if it's an "out" result in 2016, the UK will already be swamped (even further) with immigrants, and all will be given indefinite leave to remain, as the low-grade economy will depend on them
  • more public spending cuts in certain areas, but not in tax credits and housing as the economy depends on low paid workers being subsidised.

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