Gigantic Purple Slug Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30529639 Looks like the HTB boost ran out pretty quickly. Guess they are hoping the stamp duty sub will prop the market up until the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The end of FLS funny money coming home to roost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/4110 Revised down October by £0.4 Bn too, it was £19Bn in the original press release, now quoted as £18.6 Bn. Despite gross lending in 2014 versus 2013 rising by a third to approx. £205 Bn (guestimating the final month contribution), it is still approx. 30-35% down on 2003 and 2004 levels. Not saying these years were reasonable comparisons but just for perspective. The Nov estimate is flat y-o-y, will be keen to see how this is revised next month. It seems that the housing market is looking very vulnerable at present. Hopefully by the time the CML next put crayon to paper for their December number released next month it'll be even more apparent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moedo12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The end of FLS funny money coming home to roost Hasn't ended, it's been extended for another year if I'm not mistaken? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moedo12 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Hasn't FLS been extended for certain things until Jan 2016? Are mortgages included? No it's for SMEs but that includes buy to let businesses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That must be a good thing......less debt and years paying debt required to purchase, lower prices, higher disposable income, higher chance that repayments are affordable, fewer bad debt and repossession cases....bring it on, what is there not to like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Hasn't ended, it's been extended for another year if I'm not mistaken? This^^ BTL is not that much of a problem since I.O became difficult to obtain (the need to prove how the capital will be paid at end of term ) try doing that with the yields at today's prices ,,,it was always about leverage/HPI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It would take some colossal government action and media ramping to get the public's interest in mortgage to return to the January 2014 peak. I guess BTL have also stopped buying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble & Squeak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 why did it dip so sharply at the end of 2013? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 It would take some colossal government action and media ramping to get the public's interest in mortgage to return to the January 2014 peak. I guess BTL have also stopped buying. Ah, lovely. There goes the GE, Dave! If only you hadn't launched HtB2 early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 why did it dip so sharply at the end of 2013? HtB2 got pulled forward from Jan 1st, 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble & Squeak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 HtB2 got pulled forward from Jan 1st, 2014. surely HtB2 wouldn't have had such an impact? also, wouldn't FFL dosh been flowing nicely at the time of the dip? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimJ Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 why did it dip so sharply at the end of 2013? Looks like a seasonal dip towards Christmas to me. How was December 2011 / 12 for comparison? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble & Squeak Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like a seasonal dip towards Christmas to me. How was December 2011 / 12 for comparison? yeh, i'm bit worried about a new year bounce FFL1 cash no longer available should nip that in the bud, though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 (edited) why did it dip so sharply at the end of 2013? Don`t know why it dipped (HTB1 run out off steam?) but i would bet Gidiot was privy to the trend and then brought HTB2 forward Edit : Ahh the chart is gauge of interest? not a measure of transactions so as already stated else where people lose interest in moving approaching Christmas hence the rebond after Edited December 18, 2014 by long time lurking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimJ Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Yes, Google Trends, amount of interest in specific search terms over time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble & Squeak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 so hopefully the new year rebound will have no cold hard (government backed) cash to back it up this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Tories will pull rabbit after rabbit to win in May. It's the sole focus of their sh1t minds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 The Tories will pull rabbit after rabbit to win in May. It's the sole focus of their sh1t minds. nonsense, unlike Putin, The Coalition are in total control of the nations finances, steering it from the noble bridge of 11 Downing Street, our wise and responsible Captain and his crew navigating the Worlds storms and calm seas with the confidence of the passengers waiting for dinner to be served, the engine room stocked with fuel and the Casinos in full flight 24/7 on the entertainment decks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 nonsense, unlike Putin, The Coalition are in total control of the nations finances, steering it from the noble bridge of 11 Downing Street, our wise and responsible Captain and his crew navigating the Worlds storms and calm seas with the confidence of the passengers waiting for dinner to be served, the engine room stocked with fuel and the Casinos in full flight 24/7 on the entertainment decks. They see no ships. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WatchingFromTheHills Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Or icebergs ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Don`t know why it dipped (HTB1 run out off steam?) but i would bet Gidiot was privy to the trend and then brought HTB2 forward Edit : Ahh the chart is gauge of interest? not a measure of transactions so as already stated else where people lose interest in moving approaching Christmas hence the rebond after My rough rule of thumb is that when interest (volumes) drops below the second line prices tend to fall as there are less people interested in buying property and prices start being reduced. It is quite seasonal, hence the seasonal adjustments you see in the mainstream charts. The nice thing about this chart is you can keep an eye on it on a weekly basis rather than wait for the monthly report. It's quite a loose interpretation, but a good directional indicator. I have drawn a red line on a larger timescale to indicate the level of interest which I believe prices rise and fall against - the tipping point if you like. You will have to keep an eye on it in January/February to see how high it rebounds. No doubt the media and government will be pushing people into taking out mortgages, so expect a new government scheme and rampathon in the very near futre. Scare stories form the Mail about all property being bought by pensioners etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Looks like a seasonal dip towards Christmas to me. How was December 2011 / 12 for comparison? No it's flat y-o-y - you have to do the 2013/2014 yoy thing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Or icebergs ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canbuywontbuy Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 To quote a popular hit song doing the rounds.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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