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Gigantic Purple Slug

Mortgage Lending Dip Continues

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http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/4110

Revised down October by £0.4 Bn too, it was £19Bn in the original press release, now quoted as £18.6 Bn. Despite gross lending in 2014 versus 2013 rising by a third to approx. £205 Bn (guestimating the final month contribution), it is still approx. 30-35% down on 2003 and 2004 levels. Not saying these years were reasonable comparisons but just for perspective.

The Nov estimate is flat y-o-y, will be keen to see how this is revised next month. It seems that the housing market is looking very vulnerable at present. Hopefully by the time the CML next put crayon to paper for their December number released next month it'll be even more apparent.

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That must be a good thing......less debt and years paying debt required to purchase, lower prices, higher disposable income, higher chance that repayments are affordable, fewer bad debt and repossession cases....bring it on, what is there not to like. ;)

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Hasn't ended, it's been extended for another year if I'm not mistaken?

This^^ BTL is not that much of a problem since I.O became difficult to obtain (the need to prove how the capital will be paid at end of term ) try doing that with the yields at today's prices ,,,it was always about leverage/HPI

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It would take some colossal government action and media ramping to get the public's interest in mortgage to return to the January 2014 peak.

I guess BTL have also stopped buying.

1r4v4o.png

Ah, lovely. There goes the GE, Dave! If only you hadn't launched HtB2 early.

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Looks like a seasonal dip towards Christmas to me. How was December 2011 / 12 for comparison?

yeh, i'm bit worried about a new year bounce

FFL1 cash no longer available should nip that in the bud, though

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why did it dip so sharply at the end of 2013?

Don`t know why it dipped (HTB1 run out off steam?) but i would bet Gidiot was privy to the trend and then brought HTB2 forward

Edit : Ahh the chart is gauge of interest? not a measure of transactions so as already stated else where people lose interest in moving approaching Christmas hence the rebond after

Edited by long time lurking

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The Tories will pull rabbit after rabbit to win in May. It's the sole focus of their sh1t minds.

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The Tories will pull rabbit after rabbit to win in May. It's the sole focus of their sh1t minds.

nonsense, unlike Putin, The Coalition are in total control of the nations finances, steering it from the noble bridge of 11 Downing Street, our wise and responsible Captain and his crew navigating the Worlds storms and calm seas with the confidence of the passengers waiting for dinner to be served, the engine room stocked with fuel and the Casinos in full flight 24/7 on the entertainment decks.

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nonsense, unlike Putin, The Coalition are in total control of the nations finances, steering it from the noble bridge of 11 Downing Street, our wise and responsible Captain and his crew navigating the Worlds storms and calm seas with the confidence of the passengers waiting for dinner to be served, the engine room stocked with fuel and the Casinos in full flight 24/7 on the entertainment decks.

They see no ships.

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Don`t know why it dipped (HTB1 run out off steam?) but i would bet Gidiot was privy to the trend and then brought HTB2 forward

Edit : Ahh the chart is gauge of interest? not a measure of transactions so as already stated else where people lose interest in moving approaching Christmas hence the rebond after

My rough rule of thumb is that when interest (volumes) drops below the second line prices tend to fall as there are less people interested in buying property and prices start being reduced.

It is quite seasonal, hence the seasonal adjustments you see in the mainstream charts. The nice thing about this chart is you can keep an eye on it on a weekly basis rather than wait for the monthly report.

It's quite a loose interpretation, but a good directional indicator. I have drawn a red line on a larger timescale to indicate the level of interest which I believe prices rise and fall against - the tipping point if you like.

You will have to keep an eye on it in January/February to see how high it rebounds. No doubt the media and government will be pushing people into taking out mortgages, so expect a new government scheme and rampathon in the very near futre. Scare stories form the Mail about all property being bought by pensioners etc.

14scht4.png

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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