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InlikeFlynn

Salmond's (And Scotland's) Lucky Escape

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It's a good point... and I remember reading that Aberdeen house prices were 2nd most expensive in the UK after London. It shows that even in June when oil was $110, you could buy a property in Aberdeen thinking you've made a pretty good investment for yourself - 6 short months later, who wants to live in Aberdeen now? North Sea needs $80 a barrel to break even according to the BBC report. Lay-offs happening, future plans on hold.

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I've commented on the other oil thread - I'm expecting various contractors I know from the NE to start pulling their necks in.

Only a few are left in on the North sea -either UK or Norway.

Most have gone way-away for higher paying jobs, drilling for harder to get oil round the world.

They've all been busy for the last decade, with oil > $90/barrel.

They're all unemployed at oil < $80/barrel.

I think a lot, who are in 40s + 50s, will not go back offshore.

Its hard to get a job offshore and you've got to keep joining up your contracts to keep employed.

A break of a year or so will put you back to the start.

Just as well they've saved ...

Note - typical oil worker saves by buying houses and investing in a Thai bar girl.

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It's a good point... and I remember reading that Aberdeen house prices were 2nd most expensive in the UK after London. It shows that even in June when oil was $110, you could buy a property in Aberdeen thinking you've made a pretty good investment for yourself - 6 short months later, who wants to live in Aberdeen now? North Sea needs $80 a barrel to break even according to the BBC report. Lay-offs happening, future plans on hold.

This happened exactly the same in the 80s, ! Guy i knew worked up there late 70s bought house up there, house price escalated, Mid 80s lost job, came back south leaving house for sale.

Edited by awaytogo

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I can't help thinking Scotland had a lucky escape in September. The economic future for an independent Scotland does not look so pretty with oil at $60 a barrel.

The first signs of reduced activity in the sector are filtering through.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30525539

House prices in Aberdeen to fall?

Here's hoping wrt house prices!

Although an independent Scotland would be more dependent on oil than the UK as a whole, I have no doubt that if prices were this low in 2016, we would have faced some real cuts in government spending. Whether you think that's a bad thing or not, the short term impact would be undeniable. It should be remembered however, that oils is not Scotland's only natural resource, and definitely not it's sole source of income.

However, aren't we facing massive cuts anyway? What if we had been unable to come to an agreement wrt national debt/currency union? How much would we have saved in debt repayment?

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It's a good point... and I remember reading that Aberdeen house prices were 2nd most expensive in the UK after London. It shows that even in June when oil was $110, you could buy a property in Aberdeen thinking you've made a pretty good investment for yourself - 6 short months later, who wants to live in Aberdeen now? North Sea needs $80 a barrel to break even according to the BBC report. Lay-offs happening, future plans on hold.

Aberdeen: The city boasts the highest concentration of millionaires in Britain and an unemployment rate of just 2% – but wage inequality and astronomical rents have heightened calls for change

18 June 2014

The taxi driver swings his brand-new BMW out of Aberdeen train station. Behind him the sleek glass-fronted £250m Union Square shopping centre, with its Apple store and Hugo Boss shop, glistens in the afternoon sunshine. "Welcome to the oil capital of Europe," he says with a smile.

As we drive past Aberdeen harbour, crowded with cargo ships, he talks about his grandson. A multinational oil company is paying the 17-year-old £12,000 a year to study mechanical engineering at college. He will graduate into a guaranteed job. "He’ll be on £100,000 by the time he’s 25," the cabbie says confidently.

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/jun/18/aberdeen-oil-city-boom-bust-millionaires-unemployment

A rangey and handsome someone, tried to put this guy off from buying in Aberdeen last month... but half-heartedly, for so many of us have come to learn the buyers paying ever higher prices for property only wanted a home etc, are victims - fault of others owners think they are super intelligent and wise for loving their £1.3m Putney homes with investment flats they've kept.. their duty to age to 50, 60, 70 as renters to defend hpi for others, and watch their younger family members sacrificed the same way.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5114760

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Here's hoping wrt house prices!

Although an independent Scotland would be more dependent on oil than the UK as a whole, I have no doubt that if prices were this low in 2016, we would have faced some real cuts in government spending. Whether you think that's a bad thing or not, the short term impact would be undeniable. It should be remembered however, that oils is not Scotland's only natural resource, and definitely not it's sole source of income.

However, aren't we facing massive cuts anyway? What if we had been unable to come to an agreement wrt national debt/currency union? How much would we have saved in debt repayment?

What would Scotlands percentages look like, for example oil and gas accounts for 70% of Russias export revenues ?

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Its a very fair point actually.

The 'oil' was central to the whole campaign. The yes campaign were not even subtle about it.

Imagine the vote was today ? Would have swung it by 10% maybe ?

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How much would we have saved in debt repayment?

Quite a bit. Which would be just as well as you'd have to pay over the odds on any future debt due to the fact that you defaulted on the last lot.

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I can't help thinking Scotland had a lucky escape in September. The economic future for an independent Scotland does not look so pretty with oil at $60 a barrel.

The first signs of reduced activity in the sector are filtering through.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30525539

House prices in Aberdeen to fall?

BTL will take the immediate hit because many contractors have homes in other parts of the UK? Should be interesting watching the Aberdeen thread on here, and Hamish`s pronouncements on MSE.

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Except if you actually look at the figures Scotland's finances are almost exactly as healthy (on a per person basis) as those of the UK as a whole, even excluding oil.

The oil will still power just as many planes and cars and power stations and make just as many plastics and what-have-you as it did when it cost twice as much. All countries should be looking to replace fossil fuels with renewables and Scotland's oil would have given the new country a breathing space in which to do so without major shocks. As much as Unionists would have liked you to believe otherwise, most people in Scotland have jobs unconnected with the oil industry. Oil would have been a nice bonus, rather than the basis of the economy.

And consider the position the UK would be in now, had it invested its oil windfall in the same way as Norway has done.

The Scottish referendum was a lost chance for some political sanity on these islands. Now we get to watch Westminster run ever faster into the arms of international corporations and the global rich, and ever farther away from ordinary people.

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Except if you actually look at the figures Scotland's finances are almost exactly as healthy (on a per person basis) as those of the UK as a whole, even excluding oil.

The oil will still power just as many planes and cars and power stations and make just as many plastics and what-have-you as it did when it cost twice as much. All countries should be looking to replace fossil fuels with renewables and Scotland's oil would have given the new country a breathing space in which to do so without major shocks. As much as Unionists would have liked you to believe otherwise, most people in Scotland have jobs unconnected with the oil industry. Oil would have been a nice bonus, rather than the basis of the economy.

And consider the position the UK would be in now, had it invested its oil windfall in the same way as Norway has done.

The Scottish referendum was a lost chance for some political sanity on these islands. Now we get to watch Westminster run ever faster into the arms of international corporations and the global rich, and ever farther away from ordinary people.

Come on, oil is a big chunk of the tax revenue, and lots of jobs are there because of the oil/gas industry (do you remember the projections for knock on effects on jobs throughout Scotland when Grangemouth was going to close?) Hopefully the UK government will be hurting from less tax due to this price drop and may consider more carefully the types of props they can afford for the housing market.

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Quite a bit. Which would be just as well as you'd have to pay over the odds on any future debt due to the fact that you defaulted on the last lot.

Same old argument... Scotland has issued no bonds/gilts, we have no debt. Don't really want to go round those houses again, as it's theoretical at the moment.

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What would Scotlands percentages look like, for example oil and gas accounts for 70% of Russias export revenues ?

Historically, between 10-15%. The yes side have always argued that NS income is a bonus, not a staple requirement, with Scottish per capita GDP only slightly below that of the rUK.

The IFS are not known to be pro-independence, but from their document here http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn135.pdf

Tax revenues in Scotland
Ign
oring North Sea oil and gas, Scottish tax revenues per head are almost the same as the UK
average. The composition of Scottish tax revenues is, however, somewhat different. Taxes on
income are less important than in the rest of the UK, taxes on spending ar
e more important;
Allocated on a geographic basis, North Sea oil and gas revenues would have accounted for over 15%
of revenues in 2010
-
11 compared with 1.6% for the UK as a whole. Oil and gas revenues are,
however, very volatile. On a geographic basis th
ey were more than 20% of Scottish revenue in
2008
-
09 but just 12% in 2009
-
10. Looking back further they accounted for nearly half of all revenue
in the mid 1980s, falling to just 3% in 1991
-
92.

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.....It`s ok guys, no problem, just been on MSE, Hamish says it is just a blip, nothing to worry about, Aberdeen will just sail on....phew, I was worried there for a minute......

Has he been wrong up to now wrt prices in Aberdeen? just sayin... :ph34r:

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Except if you actually look at the figures Scotland's finances are almost exactly as healthy (on a per person basis) as those of the UK as a whole, even excluding oil.

The oil will still power just as many planes and cars and power stations and make just as many plastics and what-have-you as it did when it cost twice as much. All countries should be looking to replace fossil fuels with renewables and Scotland's oil would have given the new country a breathing space in which to do so without major shocks. As much as Unionists would have liked you to believe otherwise, most people in Scotland have jobs unconnected with the oil industry. Oil would have been a nice bonus, rather than the basis of the economy.

And consider the position the UK would be in now, had it invested its oil windfall in the same way as Norway has done.

The Scottish referendum was a lost chance for some political sanity on these islands. Now we get to watch Westminster run ever faster into the arms of international corporations and the global rich, and ever farther away from ordinary people.

Genius choice of words :)

Scotland's finances are almost exactly as "healthy" as the rest of the UK.

Why not use the word "******ed" as its far more relevant :)

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Come on, oil is a big chunk of the tax revenue, and lots of jobs are there because of the oil/gas industry (do you remember the projections for knock on effects on jobs throughout Scotland when Grangemouth was going to close?) Hopefully the UK government will be hurting from less tax due to this price drop and may consider more carefully the types of props they can afford for the housing market.

TBH I think the oil price is broadly neutral in the UK. We pump (about) as much as we use. If the price goes down reducing the tax take, then the government VAT take will increase as usuage goes up, plus they will have the option to increase duty.

I think the biggest problem is the effect on the oil and gas industrial sector. As other threads have noted, the industry is quite flexible in terms of being able to ramp up/down exploration/development. Production is less of an issue, because that (if you pardon the pun) is often a sunk cost.

I work (partially) in the oil business. Back in 2000 (or whenever) when the oil price tanked the speed at which exploration and backroom R&D got hacked was astonishing. The budgets just disappeared overnight. There are many many SME businesses in the UK involved in specialist services for the oil business, and its these guys that are really going to have the problems if the price stays low for a long period.

Good summary :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom

Edited by Gigantic Purple Slug

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Has he been wrong up to now wrt prices in Aberdeen? just sayin... :ph34r:

He has been wrong with his predictions of WHY house price gains are locked in IMO. Like many debt based buyers during the boom he has been lucky in that loose credit and oil price spikes have seemed to justify his decision to take on large property debts, but that is down to luck, not skill. Six months of a depressed oil price and there will be noticeable job losses, and that has an impact on prices and rents.

Edited by dances with sheeple

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TBH I think the oil price is broadly neutral in the UK. We pump (about) as much as we use. If the price goes down reducing the tax take, then the government VAT take will increase as usuage goes up, plus they will have the option to increase duty.

I think the biggest problem is the effect on the oil and gas industrial sector. As other threads have noted, the industry is quite flexible in terms of being able to ramp up/down exploration/development. Production is less of an issue, because that (if you pardon the pun) is often a sunk cost.

I work (partially) in the oil business. Back in 2000 (or whenever) when the oil price tanked the speed at which exploration and backroom R&D got hacked was astonishing. The budgets just disappeared overnight. There are many many SME businesses in the UK involved in specialist services for the oil business, and its these guys that are really going to have the problems if the price stays low for a long period.

Good summary :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_and_gas_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom

Will people increase their petrol/diesel usage in this economic climate though, especially if THEIR livelihood depends on loads of well off oil workers buying stuff?

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He has been wrong with his predictions of WHY house price gains are locked in IMO. Like many debt based buyers during the boom he has been lucky in that loose credit and oil price spikes have seemed to justify his decision to take on large property debts, but that is down to luck, not skill. Six months of a depressed oil price and there will be noticeable job losses, and that has an impact on prices and rents.

Agreed, but that wasn't my question. Has he been wrong up until now wrt prices in Aberdeen? That area has largely missed the crash seen in other parts of the country.

As to being down to luck, he was posting long before I joined the forum, and that's been nearly 6 years now. How long does a lucky streak last before it becomes good judgement?

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Its not good judgement if the reasons you give for something are wrong - but the end result just happens to be the same.

If I tell you how great horse x is at the kempton 2.15 tomorrow - and you should put all your money on it - because of its form and strength and distance blah blah blah.

It is last by a mile going into the last jump - then all the other horses fall. It saunters over the line to win.

Was my judgement correct and was I very smart and incredibly knowledgable about this horse ?

Nope - I just got it correct out of luck. Two very different things.

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