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China's Threat To Jobs: Death-knell For The Wto?

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Crikey, the Green Party seem to be thinking out of the box now.

What price houses when the economy is cored out?

http://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2346

Euro-MP warns China and India will dominate hi-tech sector

China is poised to dominate the hi-tech sector of the global economy, according to a new report published by Euro-MP and trade expert Caroline Lucas ahead of next week's World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks in Hong Kong.

'The EU's hi-tech future: The last colonial delusion' reports that professional jobs previously thought 'safe' from 'outsourcing' - such as the media, tutoring, medical provision, architecture and the law - are already being transferred to Asia, and that China is set to eventually dominate that sector with a fifth of its exports already classified as hi-tech.

Dr Lucas argues that with 300 million rural people expected to move to China's town and cities by 2020, and with an increasingly well-qualified workforce - China produces two million graduates, including 250,000 engineers, every year - the trend is set to accelerate dramatically.

"Anxious EU workers have seen more and more manufacturing and service jobs disappear to China and India, all the while being reassured by our Governments that the move to hi-tech is the answer," said Dr Lucas, Green Party MEP for South-east England and a member of the European Parliament's International Trade Committee and its delegation to next week's Hong Kong summit.

"This is little more than a colonial delusion. With their huge numbers of cheap, highly trained engineers and hi-tech graduates, China and India are poised to overtake the EU and the rest of the world in the hi-tech sector too.

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'The EU's hi-tech future: The last colonial delusion' reports that professional jobs previously thought 'safe' from 'outsourcing' - such as the media, tutoring, medical provision, architecture and the law - are already being transferred to Asia, and that China is set to eventually dominate that sector with a fifth of its exports already classified as hi-tech.

Good stuff. About time we saw some reality coming into this debate. I've been getting very weary recently of people sticking their tongue out at IT and gloating with glee, as if IT is going to be the only thing affected and everybody else will still miraculously go on doing their O-so-important and irreplaceable jobs here.

It's not going to work like that. Lots of different types of jobs are going to go overseas IMHO, while at the same time those that are portrayed as about to disappear are still going to have some representation here: people will still be doing some IT jobs here, even when half the jobs in the country have been moved overseas.

IMHO it is bound to happen that China etc. will become much wealthier, and will be equal in wealth to the West. That is the historical norm: the current situation is the aberation. It doesn't have to mean total meltdown here, just a scaling back of expectations for future wealth increases. So the sort of thing that might be bad to do would be to take out an enormous loan to buy something on the basis that wages will go on rising here for ever. Can anyone think of an activity like that repeated on a large scale? Hmmmm....... O hang on.....

Edited by Levy process

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"This is little more than a colonial delusion. With their huge numbers of cheap, highly trained engineers and hi-tech graduates, China and India are poised to overtake the EU and the rest of the world in the hi-tech sector too.

Not just China and India - Vietnam churned out more IT graduates last year than the total number of IT professionals in Bulgaria (interesting article on it in this week's Economist)

I do think that the advantage of cheap wages in China and India will diminish over time as the standard of living improves - just look at countries like Poland and the Czech Republic. The low-cost USP of Central Europe was eroded in less than a decade.

Interesting stuff though - aside from a mature consumer market, what does Europe have to offer? :(

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I know I generalise but many in the "Green" movement are very against globalisation and believe in a return to more economically insular States.

Separate debate about whether that would be possible and any merits in that.

To repeat myself, I'm sure the rise of the Far East is going to mean great problems for the West, problems that few want to acknowledge, especially politicians.

We are being told we can sell expertise, financial services, insurance etc.

I do not believe that China, India and the rest will not be capable of entering those areas too.

For a while some in the West may benefit as expertise is transferred but then?

First we were told we would become a service economy, now it's a knowledge economy. What will the next supposed phase be called.

I was thinking the other day, ok, assume HPC and recession over the next 5 years. With this enormous growth of China etc. though, can we assume another boom here?

Edited by Mushroom

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I've been harping on about this being the CRUCIAL differance between this coming downturn and those that have gone before it. This fabled ever increasing housing market may be making it lasts hurra , I mean where in a declining real wealth [for the masses] economy is the impetus going to come from to sustain bubble porportion house prices!!!!

Jump into this market now at your own peril.

Edited by Catch22

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Good stuff. About time we saw some reality coming into this debate. I've been getting very weary recently of people sticking their tongue out at IT and gloating with glee, as if IT is going to be the only thing affected and everybody else will still miraculously go on doing their O-so-important and irreplaceable jobs here.

It's not going to work like that. Lots of different types of jobs are going to go overseas IMHO, while at the same time those that are portrayed as about to disappear are still going to have some representation here: people will still be doing some IT jobs here, even when half the jobs in the country have been moved overseas.

IMHO it is bound to happen that China etc. will become much wealthier, and will be equal in wealth to the West. That is the historical norm: the current situation is the aberation. It doesn't have to mean total meltdown here, just a scaling back of expectations for future wealth increases. So the sort of thing that might be bad to do would be to take out an enormous loan to buy something on the basis that wages will go on rising here for ever. Can anyone think of an activity like that repeated on a large scale? Hmmmm....... O hang on.....

Where is the logic that says if country A gets richer, countries B, C and D need to get poorer? Overall world GDP growth is typically 4%pa. Country A getting richer will make other countries richer as well.

Edited by BoredTrainBuilder

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"This is little more than a colonial delusion. With their huge numbers of cheap, highly trained engineers and hi-tech graduates, China and India are poised to overtake the EU and the rest of the world in the hi-tech sector too.

Ive wondered for some time when this would begin.

To try and see some positive in this I make this point; Although people may learn the basic mechanics what is more debatable is whether those same people can learn 'flair' and ingenuity.

I often here how clever Indian programmers are but then I consider this analogy; Indians make terrible films. A UK made film such as Alien was made 25 years ago but still the Indians cant come anywhere near the ingenutity, craftsmanship and sheer attention to detail. If the Indians made a film score to Alien it would be way ott and unatmospheric lacking subltey.

Here's another example which illustrates the 'ingenutiy / class will see us through' argument; Eastern Europeans make awful chintzy dance music that uses sounds and styles we were using 15 years ago. They seem in the main unable to match the quality and cutting edge place we occupy.

Take another example - Dubai; Massive resource gone in yet somehow all theyve achieved is a kind of Wacko - Jacko taky chitzy Las Vegas. We just wouldnt have produced such a monster in this day and age.

Another example of British craftsmanship - nature documentaries; The yanks have just released a nature film based on Penguins. The yanks think this is cutting edge, when in fact us Brits have had this kind of quality for years on BBC, in fact UK camera work and production is still far superior here.

It is these sublte traites that may just save us, but nothing is guaranteed.

Edited by dogbox

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Where is the logic that says if country A gets richer, countries B, C and D need to get poorer? Overall world GDP growth is typically 4%pa. Country A getting richer will make other countries richer as well.

Why is your statement logical? It makes an assumption.

Even if that were the case one would have to look at the distribution of the wealth within any country also, to try to determine any effects on the society there. We are seeing more unequal distribution here and that could get worse with consequences for the nature of society.

Of course it might be that at a future point the Far East will have developed such that those countries will not need some of the Western Nations as their markets. There are going to be billions of eager new consumers.

I am just concerned that policy makers are not fully facing up to the changes that might happen. Well not in public.

Edited by Mushroom

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This kind of stuff has been talked about for the last 50 years

...... first it was Japan and the Germans after the war, then everything seemed to be made in Hong Kong, then it was clothes from India, and so on and so on, to the present day. Now its IT jobs and design and technology.

Its all just part of the levelling up process that is going on, it'll all play itself out over the next fifty years. Africa, in due course will get its turn.

People is the West won't just sit here and go bankrupt you know. They'll get up off their backsides and make a living in both old and new ways - because in the final analysis thats what you have to do to survive.

Thats whats happened for the past 50 years and will probably happen in the next fifty.

Just get on with life and stop worrying about what the Chinks are up to !

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I think the future lies in wedding planning and personal shopping.

I’ve been hammering on about the impact of labour competition from what they now call the BRICS nations. Incomes growth will be flat or falling in the West for some time but deflation in production costs will offset, to some extent any fall in living standards. The only part of the UK’s economy that cant be exported is housing but we know how deflation will impact on that particular cost.

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Another example of British craftsmanship - nature documentaries; The yanks have just released a nature film based on Penguins. The yanks think this is cutting edge, when in fact us Brits have had this kind of quality for years on BBC, in fact UK camera work and production is still far superior here.

It is these sublte traites that may just save us, but nothing is guaranteed.

Actually March of the Penguins is French. The only thing that makes it different from the UK nature documentaries is that its cut to be a film (although it is very, very good).

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People is the West won't just sit here and go bankrupt you know. They'll get up off their backsides and make a living in both old and new ways - because in the final analysis thats what you have to do to survive.

Now I thought we already had quite a large proportion of our citizenry who are "economically inactive".

Not to mention the, often complained about here, "nonjobs" in the public sector.

Oh well, perhaps both numbers will have to increase, I'm sure there'll be enough left to tax to support that.

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The yanks have just released a nature film based on Penguins. The yanks think this is cutting edge, when in fact us Brits have had this kind of quality for years on BBC, in fact UK camera work and production is still far superior here.

I disagree - production values in the US are now far superior to UK television. This is in no small part due to the fact that in the 1990s there was an exodus of UK technical TV talent to the US. Many of the US shows that people rave about over here actually have a sizeable British crew from writers to cameramen to, well, my cousin is art director on a major US cop series that is screened over here.

UK TV wages plummeted in the 1990s with many people being puto n short-term contracts of a year, then 6 months, then 3 and then "If we need you tomorrow we will call you in the morning" so people got out in their droves. The only people who are left working now are people prepared to work for peanuts and, as we have discussed on this board before, are often children of rich people who subsidise them.

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Actually March of the Penguins is French. The only thing that makes it different from the UK nature documentaries is that its cut to be a film (although it is very, very good).

I disagree, its a little ott, not as atmospheric and magical as UK productions and the voice over just doesnt cut it.

Anyway back on topic, I think the new economies will want a lot of what we offer. Have you heard Chinese dance music? :ph34r:

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First we were told we would become a service economy, now it's a knowledge economy. What will the next supposed phase be called.

Well if you really want to know . . . . . .

They will bring everyone down on their knees then introduce the coup de 'saving' grace - The New World Order version of a 'Global' Religion! :o

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Wage deflation in action, and today Ford has announced 30,000 more job cuts.

6 unions opposing Delphi's wage cuts

By mobilizing, UAW and others hope to focus on demise of U.S. industrial jobs

Six unions representing 33,650 auto workers at Delphi's U.S. operations formed the Mobilizing Delphi coalition Thursday, Krell said.

Delphi, which employs 6,500 Indiana workers in Anderson and Kokomo, has proposed implementing new wages of $9.50 to $10.50 an hour. The current UAW scale is $27 an hour a 63% cut.

[/url]

US wage deflation

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Ive wondered for some time when this would begin.

To try and see some positive in this I make this point; Although people may learn the basic mechanics what is more debatable is whether those same people can learn 'flair' and ingenuity.

I often here how clever Indian programmers are but then I consider this analogy; Indians make terrible films. A UK made film such as Alien was made 25 years ago but still the Indians cant come anywhere near the ingenutity, craftsmanship and sheer attention to detail. If the Indians made a film score to Alien it would be way ott and unatmospheric lacking subltey.

Here's another example which illustrates the 'ingenutiy / class will see us through' argument; Eastern Europeans make awful chintzy dance music that uses sounds and styles we were using 15 years ago. They seem in the main unable to match the quality and cutting edge place we occupy.

Take another example - Dubai; Massive resource gone in yet somehow all theyve achieved is a kind of Wacko - Jacko taky chitzy Las Vegas. We just wouldnt have produced such a monster in this day and age.

These aren't failings on the part of India, Dubai or Eastern Europe - they are just cultural differences. Indian films go down perfectly well in the domestic market.

And while I find Dubai soulless and tacky (and loathe going to the place), I think they deserve some credit - they have literally created something from nothing.

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Well if you really want to know . . . . . .

They will bring everyone down on their knees then introduce the coup de 'saving' grace - The New World Order version of a 'Global' Religion! :o

Halleluiah......I'll fall postrate at their feet to be saved....even the Yanks have stolen a march on us in that direction.

I was channel flicking last night, progam called "Wife Swop" [mogadon for the masses] came up, I just heard this women saying she only allowed her children to listen to Chritistian Radio then I flicked back to the footy.

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A report on the Japanese experience of wage deflation which has been happening for almost a decade.

The fiscal 2002 shunto [spring wage negotiations] resulted in a considerable number of zero-increase settlements, and with more companies implement "wage system reforms", that, effectively, make it possible to reduce wages, there have been loud warnings that Japan is entering an "age of wage deflation".

However, on the basis of the movement of nominal wages at a macrostatistical level alone, it could be claimed that "wage deflation" actually started five years ago. This wage deflation is the result of efforts to cut personnel costs, which have taken the form of (i) a shift in the structure of employment, towards lower paid part-timers and other nonregular workers and (ii) the reduction of bonuses and other special payments,

The underlying reason for the downward trend of nominal wages since mid-1997 is the contraction of the domestic manufacturing base as the Asian economies have caught up with Japan. In conjunction with the contraction of the manufacturing base, in the manufacturing sector, the slowing of productivity growth has led to a decline in growth potential, thereby exerting a downward pressure on wages, and the influx of cheap, good-quality Asian imports has both exerted a downward pressure on domestic goods prices and served as a pressure for wage deflation.

[Japan

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Halleluiah......I'll fall postrate at their feet to be saved....even the Yanks have stolen a march on us in that direction.

I was channel flicking last night, progam called "Wife Swop" [mogadon for the masses] came up, I just heard this women saying she only allowed her children to listen to Chritistian Radio then I flicked back to the footy.

Sheer ignorance!

Christians will be among the first to be imprisoned, tortured, killed!

Stick to your footy!

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The main reason that so many things are expensive in the U.K apart from the odd bubble thrown in is because we earn relatively more than a lot of the world. I for one would accept a halving in wages if house prices, beer, golf, food, electronics, cd's, dvd's furniture etc all decrease by 60%.

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Sheer ignorance!

Christians will be among the first to be imprisoned, tortured, killed!

Stick to your footy!

No no don't leave me in the dark, who pray tell me will smight the might of the Christian Right O knowledgeable one ...or is that info only avaliable "on a need to know basis" ..............let me guess.... do the Jews pull it out of the bag against the bookmakers odds at the Second Coming.........or the Islamists do indeed convert the world.......your going to tell me its none of them right ? .....I bet you will make me google it :ph34r:

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Why is your statement logical? It makes an assumption.

Even if that were the case one would have to look at the distribution of the wealth within any country also, to try to determine any effects on the society there. We are seeing more unequal distribution here and that could get worse with consequences for the nature of society.

Of course it might be that at a future point the Far East will have developed such that those countries will not need some of the Western Nations as their markets. There are going to be billions of eager new consumers.

I am just concerned that policy makers are not fully facing up to the changes that might happen. Well not in public.

I wasn't putting forward any logic, I was simply refuting the flawed logic of Levy Process that because China is getting richer we would need to scale back our wealth expectations. Why? That is illogical and not in line with history. Name a single country (as opposed to interest groups within that country) that was ever impoverished by the ability to buy goods cheaper from outside itself than internally?

I thought Ludditism was dead in the UK. Fortunately amongst policy makers it largely is.

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Name a single country (as opposed to interest groups within that country) that was ever impoverished by the ability to buy goods cheaper from outside itself than internally
?

Japan

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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