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Uk Political Instability Post 2015 To Bring World Economy To The Brink

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Was broached on Sky Business last night that the biggest geopolitical risk to the world economy going forward was not Russia or indeed ISIL but the UK hell bent on an EU in out referendum and general political instability...the SNP, UKIP etc. This was from an economist who was an expert on world geopolitical dangers.

After all we are the fifth or sixth largest economy and destabilising the world's biggest trading block the EU would go further than just our own borders.

Had to mention this, because it has been a bit of a hobby horse of mine just lately.

Ok Cameron's stance curries a lot of favour on here, and if Cameron manages to bring the world economy to its kness all the better for those wanting a black swan.

Businessweek highlighting the dangers earlier this year......

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-09-29/u-dot-k-dot-risks-1974-redux-as-splintered-votes-hurt-stability

Edited by crashmonitor

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They might have to bring Mr Brown out of retirement to write a letter to the UK people - like he did for Scotland.

Then he'll have saved the UK and the world twice - twice at least.

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Hilarious nonsense. The world would carry on perfectly well if the entire UK was destroyed by a Meteor strike. We are just not important in the great scheme of things (although we still like to think we are).

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Hilarious nonsense. The world would carry on perfectly well if the entire UK was destroyed by a Meteor strike. We are just not important in the great scheme of things (although we still like to think we are).

The EU is a big player....it will hurt them as much as it will probably hurt us.

I said hurt, but many on here think the world order needs a shake up. Small things can have big consequences...chaos theory. Even the possibility of UK exit is not small beer on the world stage though.

Edited by crashmonitor

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From the Bloomberg link


The outcome of the next general election risks leaving Britain looking more like it did in the early 1970s than it does today.

It's nothing like the early 1970s - except that the early 1970s was another time when the TPTB took the UK into an arrangement with europe (then it was called the Common Market) without having had a vote on it.

Then they belatedly allowed a vote (on the Common Market) after the event.

This time they've really rode roughshod over the UK electorate and UK democracy time and time again.

Edited by billybong

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From the Bloomberg link

It's nothing like the early 1970s - except that the early 1970s was another time when the TPTB took the UK into an arrangement with europe (then it was called the Common Market) without having had a vote on it.

Then they belatedly allowed a vote (on the Common Market) after the event.

This time they've really rode roughshod over the UK electorate and UK democracy time and time again.

But the pro Common Market Tory's under Ted Heath were voted in with a decent majority so the British public did have a vote on joining the Common Market

Edited by aSecureTenant

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But the pro Common Market Tory's under Ted Heath were voted in with a decent majority so the British public did have a vote on joining the Common Market

Are we absolutely sure the public knew precisely what they were voting for?

Edited by Errol

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Hilarious nonsense. The world would carry on perfectly well if the entire UK was destroyed by a Meteor strike. We are just not important in the great scheme of things (although we still like to think we are).

In the great scheme of things we are the fourth largest trading economy, but unlike Russia we are very inter-connected with the world economy. Fourth largest trading economy destabilising largest trading block...sorry bigger than ISIL, Ukraine and Ebola put together.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

Edited by crashmonitor

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But the pro Common Market Tory's under Ted Heath were voted in with a decent majority so the British public did have a vote on joining the Common Market

That slim voter majority (3.4%) in 1970 couldn't really be claimed to be a vote for Common Market entry in 1970 as there were a lot of other issues being voted on (unemployment, the economy, decimal coinage, world cup defeat, balance of payments etc etc etc) though for sure Conservative Mr Heath would have tried to interpretate it that way before agreeing accession with europe during 1972 and signing up on 1 January 1973. That was after promising a referendum on it during the 1970 general election..

If anything related to the Common Market contributed to the Conservative majority in 1970 it would be partly because of the "promise" of a referendum - which they reneged on.

The referendum (on the Common Market) came in 1975 under Mr Wilson of Labour.

From wikipedia

In April 1970, during the 1970 General Election, Edward Heath said that further European Integration would not happen “except with the full-hearted consent of the Parliaments and peoples of the new member countries.” However, no referendum was held when the UK agreed to an accession treaty on 22 January 1972 ..

They reneged on the referendum then and over recent years their track record confirms that they'll renege on it yet again. Mind you the other lots in the LibLabCon are no better.

Edited by billybong

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LOL.

The media barrage to scare people from drifting away from voting any of the current lot begins in earnest.

FEAR - remember it worked in the original in-out referendum - yet Switzerland has coped quite admirably. The success of the FEAR strategy was repeated more recently in Scotland.

We use FEAR to bomb people before they bomb us, lock them up before they attack us. We use FEAR to ask for more spying on and control of ourselves.

FEAR, FEAR, FEAR.

Yes. Since 1980, the neo-cons meticulously followed George Orwell's handy guide, nineteen eighty four.

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In the great scheme of things we are the fourth largest trading economy, but unlike Russia we are very inter-connected with the world economy. Fourth largest trading economy destabilising largest trading block...sorry bigger than ISIL, Ukraine and Ebola put together.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

I have to agree with you there. However most UK plebs don't realise it because their neighborhood resembles a poor part of Colombo these days and the days they could afford a drink in the pub were gone 20 years ago.

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what would happen if we pulled out?

Are we going to sail Airstrip One to off the coast of the USA?

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That argument doesn't make sense, even if publications run with it. The global system can't logically fall back on concerns of trade repercussions when those repercussions would be the consequence of actions it threatens to impose. If it was simply a matter of risks to trade they could just rewrite the rules, so it must be something(s) else.

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Hilarious nonsense. The world would carry on perfectly well if the entire UK was destroyed by a Meteor strike. We are just not important in the great scheme of things (although we still like to think we are).

It might cause the big US banks a few headaches as they'd have to find somewhere else with light touch regulation.

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The EU is a big player....it will hurt them as much as it will probably hurt us.

I said hurt, but many on here think the world order needs a shake up. Small things can have big consequences...chaos theory. Even the possibility of UK exit is not small beer on the world stage though.

UK exit would prompt other countries to exit as well, and this would be healthy for democracy IMO. It is going to break up anyway, just a matter of time now, we would be better getting out while we can have some control over how we leave. Geopolitical risk? Do they mean we would go to war with France or something? My hope is that the EZ crisis (probably centered on Greece) is raging as we go into the election, and we get massive historical swings to UKIP meaning a swift exit is on the cards. EZ break up would be good for HPC as well.

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THey'll be no in-out under the Tories.

Tell that to John Major and Edwina Currie (apologies if anyone was eating while reading).

Hilarious nonsense. The world would carry on perfectly well if the entire UK was destroyed by a Meteor strike. We are just not important in the great scheme of things (although we still like to think we are).

Exactly. In the more likely scenario the amount of trade between the UK and EU and UK and the rest of the world would be unaffected by a UK exit from the EU unless the EU decided to cut their nose off to spite their face by imposing trade restrictions.

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Tell that to John Major and Edwina Currie (apologies if anyone was eating while reading).

Exactly. In the more likely scenario the amount of trade between the UK and EU and UK and the rest of the world would be unaffected by a UK exit from the EU unless the EU decided to cut their nose off to spite their face by imposing trade restrictions.

and yet deliberate sanctions against the huge Russia is fine.

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But the pro Common Market Tory's under Ted Heath were voted in with a decent majority so the British public did have a vote on joining the Common Market

but the british public HAVE NOT been given a vote on a full blown political union.

now under british law IT IS OBLIGATORY that ANY seccession of power to a foreign body be endorsed by public referendum...and therefore we can choose to veto entirely, or demand amendments.

that has not been forthcoming, so therefore all political acts made to solidify such union are illegal.

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UK exit would prompt other countries to exit as well, and this would be healthy for democracy IMO. It is going to break up anyway, just a matter of time now, we would be better getting out while we can have some control over how we leave. Geopolitical risk? Do they mean we would go to war with France or something? My hope is that the EZ crisis (probably centered on Greece) is raging as we go into the election, and we get massive historical swings to UKIP meaning a swift exit is on the cards. EZ break up would be good for HPC as well.

EZ crisis is centred on italy rather than greece.

greece have a get out of jail free card vis a vis russia..and ireland do with the USA.

france is an interesting one, they are actually rather more in the "loose fit" bloc than full union bloc, so i would expect to see them making quite a bit of noise if too much "unity" is not to their liking...so much so that they could be persuaded to join NAU via canada.

we might not see eye to eye with the french all the time, but I think both britain and france are agreed on this.they don't like being dictated to by monarchs or aristocrats(or politicians who behave like them)

Edited by oracle

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LOL.

The media barrage to scare people from drifting away from voting any of the current lot begins in earnest.

FEAR - remember it worked in the original in-out referendum - yet Switzerland has coped quite admirably. The success of the FEAR strategy was repeated more recently in Scotland.

We use FEAR to bomb people before they bomb us, lock them up before they attack us. We use FEAR to ask for more spying on and control of ourselves.

FEAR, FEAR, FEAR.

Spot on ...but they have a bit of a problem ,more and more are seeing right through the propaganda, it`s not quite enough at this moment in time but that time will come sooner rather than later

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