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Jason

Big Jump In Consumer Confidence

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"CONSUMER confidence jumped during November as people became more optimistic about the outlook for house prices.

Nationwide Building Society's consumer confidence index rose by 9 points during the month, its biggest jump since it was launched in May last year."

More: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money-savers/...39&in_page_id=5

Hmmm... Is this the best the VIs can come up with? More spin...

Edited by Jason

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Hmmm... Is this the best the VIs can come up with? More spin...

Ever since the Nationwide said "house prices will fall" in 2006, it appears we've had just enough extra spin to make us try and forget they ever said that. :rolleyes:

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What I really find disgusting is that the press and media will report this spin more then they will the sipps climedown.

To this end we need a website which tracks all of the reports from the media against date and against fact.

mark it against a time frame.. I.e in this month so and so said this.. etc..

Then put the reporters name and home address against the report.

Then call the site

www.afterthecrash.co.uk

and make it available as a resource for all of those ruined by believing the spin.

and let them know now that it is happening.

they know as well as we do that it is not sustainable..

maybe make them aware that their behaviour may have an impact against them personally..

The director general of the BBC opens his door to some ruined man with an axe..

that would be funny news.

:)

Over the top?

People will commit suicide this time as they did the last.. when they loose everything..

The press spin will result in people's deaths.. in children not having a father.. etc.

Perhaps what goes around should come around..

Just an idea.

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What I really find disgusting is that the press and media will report this spin more then they will the sipps climedown.

To this end we need a website which tracks all of the reports from the media against date and against fact.

mark it against a time frame.. I.e in this month so and so said this.. etc..

Then put the reporters name and home address against the report.

I love this idea - especially naming the journalists responsible.

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If consumer confidence is on the up why has this firm just called in the receivers? IMPO this is a clear sign that the bubble is about to burst because people are simply spent out and that consumer confidence is going down, down, down.

A tile company based in Bridgend has gone into administration with the loss of more than 100 jobs.

Tiles-R-Us has more than 90 stores across the UK, and an annual turnover of around £40m in tiles, bathrooms, kitchens and domestic appliances.

Thirty stores have been closed and 131 of 450 staff have been made redundant.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/4505192.stm

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Yet another "conflicting" indicator...

The Gfk Martin Hamblin consumer confidence survey (for retail purchases):

September -5

October -8

November -8

Not much of a pick-up there then.

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Sounds like desparation from the Nationwide, highlighting any bit of good news and spining it as a recovery.

The crash is truely under way.

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If consumer confidence is on the up why has this firm just called in the receivers? IMPO this is a clear sign that the bubble is about to burst because people are simply spent out and that consumer confidence is going down, down, down.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/4505192.stm

I'm sure we've got one of those in Harrogate ? must see if its still there as I drive past today..

"CONSUMER confidence jumped during November as people became more optimistic about the outlook for house prices.

Nationwide Building Society's consumer confidence index rose by 9 points during the month, its biggest jump since it was launched in May last year."

More: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money-savers/...39&in_page_id=5

Hmmm... Is this the best the VIs can come up with? More spin...

hmmm, I wonder who they surveyed ? would it be homeowners by any chance ?

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If consumer confidence is on the up why has this firm just called in the receivers? IMPO this is a clear sign that the bubble is about to burst because people are simply spent out and that consumer confidence is going down, down, down.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/south_east/4505192.stm

Spending must be really down in the DIY sector. Like I have said on numerous occasions if the specs and BTLers are buying property the normal flow of money to the DIY sector will be nowehere near what it would normally compared to who people buy, do up and furnish their own homes. Spending in this sector won't return to a sustainable level until that occurs. Expect a lot more companies to go to the wall.

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Expect a lot more companies to go to the wall.

This is what we saw last time. They all reported losses, started firing people, started closing down or going bankrupt. We are now in the crash but we will only truly be able to see this with the hindsight of Time.

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This is what we saw last time. They all reported losses, started firing people, started closing down or going bankrupt. We are now in the crash but we will only truly be able to see this with the hindsight of Time.

Yes, but this is a strange situation, different to last time. Transactions volumes have picked up but they are transactions that are not providing economic spin - this is a LOT worse. This is a sign of what a rentier society wold be like, it would cripple the consumer driven spendfest on the back of mortgaging/remortgaging and housee ownership. I wonder how long it will take to sink in. I don't think we've even begun to scratch the surface of the negative effects of the collossal mountain of debt which which will subdue expenditure further we've hardly taken the foot off the pedal in regards to the overall level of debt accumulation - it is still rising at 10%.

Edited by OnlyMe

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Yes, but this is a strange situation, different to last time. Transactions volumes have picked up but they are transactions that are not providing economic spin - this is a LOT worse. This is a sign of what a rentier society wold be like, it would cripple the consumer driven spendfest on the back of mortgaging/remortgaging and housee ownership. I wonder how long it will take to sink in. I don't think we've even begun to scratch the surface of the negative effects of the collossal mountain of debt which which will subdue expenditure further we've hardly taken the foot off the pedal in regards to the overall level of debt accumulation - it is still rising at 10%.

I have been thinking about this for awhile, and I think that the current interest rate is right on the threshold between utter disaster and slow decline.

Just look at how quickly things slowed this year, then since the 0.25% cut in IR things have at least stablised, al be it at a lower level.

I believe we are in steady incline into a recession, but if the rates go up again the wheels will really come off and the BoE know it.

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The mountain of debt is horrendous as we all know. What I find difficult is how many people are living with these levels of debt. I could not sleep at night if I had X thousand in debt. So people seem to have kidded themselves that they are OK?

Maybe the ICWales news story on the blog about people putting credit card debt onto mortgages is significant - people feel better about mortgage debt as it is associated with their home. This is only denial though and, long-term, that debt is going to cause HUGE problems to them personally and to the wider economy.

My ex - she who has spent 70K on modernising her house - is someone who is constantly whinging about people getting into debt and buying things that they cannot afford. When I was going out with her she never had two pennies to rub together but has now remortgaged and everything in her house - the extension, the kitchen, wardrobes, bathroom, furniture, washing machine, dryer, dishwasher, two TVs, are brand spanking new. I don't see how she can afford it, (although I think she believes she is close to hooking a wealthy guy), and if IRs rise in the next few years and stay 1 or 2 points above current levels she will be well screwed but...

She is someone who will sit down with me and bemoan others taking on huge amounts of debt that they cannot afford. Bizarre. Self-denial is such a powerful Human emotion.

I do think that you are right that we have not yet begun to understand, let alone see, the affect that the enormous burden of debt will have on the UK and on others such as the US. People cannot simply keep on buying new goods year in year out no matter how much they want them and how easily credit is available.

I rang my ex yesterday to enquire, as she had done this earlier in the year when 'decluttering' her home, as to what second-hand value video tapes and books had. I was thinking of going to a car boot sale and getting rid of my Trek/X-Files video collection. She told me that nobody wants videos or books, not even charity shops, as "Everyone wants everything new these days!".

That is the culture/climate we are currently living in. 'Nuff said.

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TMT.

Maybe the ICWales news story on the blog about people putting credit card debt onto mortgages is significant - people feel better about mortgage debt as it is associated with their home. This is only denial though and, long-term, that debt is going to cause HUGE problems to them personally and to the wider economy

Through necessity in some cases - the card issuers are pulling down the shutters and in some cases making the crafty switch of only giving out more credit if it is tied to an asset that can be sold (consolidation loans, other loans etc). In the already lost causes those companies are also chaseing proeprty assets even if the debt is unsecured - still not sure how debt can be transferred as I always thought that unsercured was unsecured and that was it, apparently not. This is tantamount shuffling around the lifeboats on the deck of the Titanic ensuring that the lenders have something to grab hold of when the ship goes down.

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Hi OnlyMe.

I heard an advert for a company called "Inside Track" on the radio today. They claim you can become a wealthy property owner. Surely this might help clear the debt?

:ph34r:

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"CONSUMER confidence jumped during November as people became more optimistic about the outlook for house prices.

Nationwide Building Society's consumer confidence index rose by 9 points during the month, its biggest jump since it was launched in May last year."

More: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money-savers/...39&in_page_id=5

Hmmm... Is this the best the VIs can come up with? More spin...

The people I've talked to were certainly more chipper about prices in November than they had been for some months. I would take Nationwide as one of the more reliable VIs.

All this being said, confidence is a lagging indicator.

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The BBC is really milking this - I love the picture of the overjoyed shoppers!

I fail to see how this "news" worthy of such coverage. It isn't news at all, merely conjecture.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4506048.stm

It reminds me of the sort of stuff that would have come from TASS, the Soviet state news agency to convince their population that everything is great and that they wouldn't really prefer life in the West.

Honestly, whilst reading the article I could almost hear the old Iraqi Information Minister.

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Through necessity in some cases - the card issuers are pulling down the shutters and in some cases making the crafty switch of only giving out more credit if it is tied to an asset that can be sold (consolidation loans, other loans etc). In the already lost causes those companies are also chaseing proeprty assets even if the debt is unsecured - still not sure how debt can be transferred as I always thought that unsercured was unsecured and that was it, apparently not. This is tantamount shuffling around the lifeboats on the deck of the Titanic ensuring that the lenders have something to grab hold of when the ship goes down.

Putting electronic goods from credit card debt onto a mortgage makes that a darn expensive TV or fridge - yes, the IR on the mortgage might be much lower but when you work out the interest over a mortgage lifetime people are paying big bucks for their consumer binge!

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The BBC is really milking this - I love the picture of the overjoyed shoppers!

I fail to see how this "news" worthy of such coverage. It isn't news at all, merely conjecture.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4506048.stm

It reminds me of the sort of stuff that would have come from TASS, the Soviet state news agency to convince their population that everything is great and that they wouldn't really prefer life in the West.

Honestly, whilst reading the article I could almost hear the old Iraqi Information Minister.

The bloke on SKY had a slightly different approach.

Reported that confidence at shops was improving due to early sales etc....but DIY and electrical goods and ANYTHING TO DO WITH HOUSING was stuggling.

Also - he finished his report with a throw away comment that it all seems great now but it won't when the credit card bills come in January.

:lol::lol::lol:

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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