Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
InlikeFlynn

Bba Mortgage Approvals Monthly Updates Thread

Recommended Posts

From the BBA website

Today’s figures suggest that the cooling of the property market has continued in recent weeks. Approvals were 16% lower in October than in the same month last year – the corresponding figure for September was a 10% decline.

“Despite softening in the housing market, consumers continue to show confidence in the economy with unsecured borrowing at its highest growth rate in years.

“At the same time we all continue to make the most of new ISA rules, stashing more in our savings accounts over the course of the last year.”

More at the link

http://www.bba.org.uk/news/press-releases/october-2014-figures-for-the-high-street-banks.

The slowdown continues...

stats25nov14.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

consumers are proving their confidence by putting their shortfalls on the credit cards.

One could spin it as good if one was so inclined.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

October's seasonally adjusted approvals number for house purchase of 37,076 was the lowest monthly total since May 2013. This is 5.2% down on September (39,127) and 15.6% down on the same month last year (43,918).

Market forecast was 38,500.

BBAapprovals1014.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like MMR is filtering through nicely and our glorious leaders have been able to control lending through something other than interest rates.

Meanwhile London is in a mega bubble collapse, savings rates at at f**k all%, the deficit is going up, wages are going down,

Well done for Gordon and gorgeous george for saving us all and making the country ( and by the country I mean the London property owning MPs ) so much richer.

We have effectively a new credit crunch and the crazyness we saw in 2014 is not going to be repeated in 2015.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CC stats are interesting- largest number of transactions on record for October (149 million) and an increase in outstanding balances to a record £40Bn, and also record advances and repayments on the month (about £9Bn each).

Overall though consumer credit is flat since declines in overdraft lending largely offset credit card balances and personal loans. Overall unsecured borrowings rose by a bit over £5/household last month, for context.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow those are low! It makes for an interesting Autumn statement next week. I expect the Office budget responsiblity will need to downgrade their 14/15 stamp duty land tax forecast receipts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well done to BOE, Mark Carney and the NASTY party for doing the right thing with MMR :ph34r:

And...that graph sort of tallies up with the removal of FLS.

Maybe they are trying to stop the insane bubble in London with their FLS withdrawal/MMR schemes, this does actually look to be happening. The big quesiton is, will or can they stop it collapsing now.

They are probably all patting themselves on the back as to how clever they have been, meanwhile, people are being destroyed financially.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well done to BOE, Mark Carney and the NASTY party for doing the right thing with MMR :ph34r:

Seems a while since he issued warning below.

Si1's recent thread asking for reasons why banks flooring mortgage rates to try and find new business (at crazy high house prices in my area) - "get in there and buy" well qualified buyers wooot.

Now BBa's data, and Nationwide's on same day; fewer mortgages going through.

Mark Carney warns house buyers: can you afford the mortgage?

Home-owners should not rely on being bailed out of any future difficulties by rising house prices, Bank of England governor warns

Friday 29 November 2013

The governor of the Bank of England has issued a blunt warning to potential home-owners that they must be able to pay their mortgages when interest rates go up and not rely on being bailed out of any future difficulties by rising house prices.

In an interview with the Guardian, Mark Carney said on Friday that Threadneedle Street's decision to rein in mortgage lending was designed to head off a boom-bust in the property market at an early stage and avoid drastic policy action in the event of a bubble.

"Think about the mortgage you are taking on, the debts you are taking on," Carney said when asked what his message was to those aspiring to get on the housing ladder. "You are taking at least a 25-year mortgage, maybe a 30-year mortgage.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/29/mark-carney-bank-of-england-home-buyer-warning

Lot of BoE stuff today, but I guess I might start another thread for it, seeing as no one else seems to have done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And...that graph sort of tallies up with the removal of FLS.

Maybe they are trying to stop the insane bubble in London with their FLS withdrawal/MMR schemes, this does actually look to be happening. The big quesiton is, will or can they stop it collapsing now.

They are probably all patting themselves on the back as to how clever they have been, meanwhile, people are being destroyed financially.

They have bailed and strengthened the banks and hope the banks are much stronger, now they need to collapse the housing market to try and get some lending going? Interest rate rises won`t work out of step with the US etc. and it would piss a lot of people off, so this is the chosen method, restricting lending (for a while)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They have bailed and strengthened the banks and hope the banks are much stronger, now they need to collapse the housing market to try and get some lending going? Interest rate rises won`t work out of step with the US etc. and it would piss a lot of people off, so this is the chosen method, restricting lending (for a while)?

Or maybe they have just run out of money and no one is going to agree to print more ( for fear of what the sheeple will do ).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Or maybe they have just run out of money and no one is going to agree to print more ( for fear of what the sheeple will do ).

Not 100% convinced many sheeple know or care what goes on in the boiler room, people have said to me recently that we are "in recovery", I think many believe it is all going to work itself out somehow.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They have bailed and strengthened the banks and hope the banks are much stronger, now they need to collapse the housing market to try and get some lending going? Interest rate rises won`t work out of step with the US etc. and it would piss a lot of people off, so this is the chosen method, restricting lending (for a while)?

I certainly hope so, and that much of the fury of reflation has been from low rates, yield and capital appreciation chasers, 'not earning anything in the bank' older BTL buyers, bomads, (complacent beyond belief just how good they've had their own years of opportunity and HPI).

They are not making any more land, but it seems like they're not making any more buyers either..

Four Stories of Quantitative Easing

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis REVIEW

January/February 2013

[..]A remarkable consistency among the monetary expansion policies of all four central banks (Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan) is that while all measures led to sharp increases in the monetary base, none led to sharp increases in broader monetary aggregates (see Figure 4). The broader aggregates did not increase because banks voluntarily held the increased monetary base as bank reserves—safe, liquid assets in high demand during periods of economic uncertainty.

Fears have been raised about the sustainability of Britain's economic recovery after new figures showed an unprecedented fall in households' deposits in Individual Savings Accounts."In addition to the ISA outflow, household time deposits lost a further £2.3bn in April."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not 100% convinced many sheeple know or care what goes on in the boiler room, people have said to me recently that we are "in recovery", I think many believe it is all going to work itself out somehow.....

If they can't see anything wrong, with these houses prices in low-mid-high prime, and choose 'in recovery' - they are on opposite side of market to myself. There is no getting through to them. My family and friends were not born to carry them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they can't see anything wrong, with these houses prices in low-mid-high prime, and choose 'in recovery' - they are on opposite side of market to myself. There is no getting through to them. My family and friends were not born to carry them.

I think for many older people, it has just been going on for so long that they think the "value" is somehow permanently attached to their house now, that society has just "moved on" to this new higher price plateau for property. Big awakening for many coming I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the BBA website

Today’s figures suggest that the cooling of the property market has continued in recent weeks. Approvals were 16% lower in October than in the same month last year – the corresponding figure for September was a 10% decline.

“Despite softening in the housing market, consumers continue to show confidence in the economy with unsecured borrowing at its highest growth rate in years.

“At the same time we all continue to make the most of new ISA rules, stashing more in our savings accounts over the course of the last year.”

More at the link

http://www.bba.org.uk/news/press-releases/october-2014-figures-for-the-high-street-banks.

The slowdown continues...

stats25nov14.jpg

And the the value of the Approvals fell 13%. Looks like things are cooling down a little.

Edited by awaytogo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Extrememly promising!

Love FT's chart! Falling off a cliff!

Before I get too excited though - I was worried by an artice by AEP yesterday saying the ECB is goign to start massive QE - and that asset prices will rocket - if this happens will some of that spill over into the UK - or will it just be limited to the Euro zone?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have effectively a new credit crunch and the crazyness we saw in 2014 is not going to be repeated in 2015.

I get the feeling, outside of London that is, there will be another bout of craziness in spring 2015... maybe for a short period.

There will be some pent up demand that weren't quite ready to buy this year, those who have found ways to cheat or beat MMR, and banks with missed targets to catch up on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thing there will be pressure put on the banks to do IO and life time mortgages. We seem to need ever increasing debt. The easiest way to do that is to let people off re paying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thing there will be pressure put on the banks to do IO and life time mortgages. We seem to need ever increasing debt. The easiest way to do that is to let people off re paying.

Will there be the demand on the buyer side, for these IO life time mortgages?

Anti-hpc forces on both sides. Hpcers and others who give a pass of blame free innocence for buyers who happily paid £300,000 in 2007 (more like £400,000 now in 2014) for a semi D in some nondescript north West suburb and outbid me by £200,000. That 'society' and media is to blame, and 'they just wanted a home'. Often same excuse givers happily claiming a champagne HPI ripple is about to come from London.

Force on other side saying debt write offs for the victims, and to expect more debt, for more victims who were forced into the bank to pay £500,000 next, £750,000 for similar semis.

Found a BTL to buy yet, gf3? Tap into the endless LHA, debt no problem economy, to get others to pay off the mortgage, yes.

Real Estate Bubbles:

The manic phase of the boom lasts for several years. In the classic assets mania, markets outrun any rational valuation based on yield or cash return. Properties come to sell at absurd prices on the expectation they will appreciate to still more absurd prices. And they do. They defy gravity, moving from one lofty new high to another, month after month, year after year.... long enough to lure in otherwise prudent people to mortgaging their gains to reinvest in the inflated assets on margin.

Before the market can top, everyone who could conceivably be drawn in must have already become a buyer. And debt levels supporting the asset prices must be many times higher than any that could conceivably be serviced out of the cash flow yielded by the asset itself.

Then comes the bust. Just as everyone has come to count on the idea that the lofty asset valuations are permanent, there is a crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will there be the demand on the buyer side, for these IO life time mortgages?

Anti-hpc forces on both sides. Hpcers and others who give a pass of blame free innocence for buyers who happily paid £300,000 in 2007 (more like £400,000 now in 2014) for a semi D in some nondescript north West suburb and outbid me by £200,000. That 'society' and media is to blame, and 'they just wanted a home'. Often same excuse givers happily claiming a champagne HPI ripple is about to come from London.

Force on other side saying debt write offs for the victims, and to expect more debt, for more victims who were forced into the bank to pay £500,000 next, £750,000 for similar semis.

Found a BTL to buy yet, gf3? Tap into the endless LHA, debt no problem economy, to get others to pay off the mortgage, yes.

I despise the money for nothing world that we live in. Where people are under paid for their labor where parasites rule.

However that is the world we live in. So what is a man to do?

I vote to try and make the world a better place but other than that I try and make as much free money as I can. I take on parasitic tendency. You can't beat the system the system is the system all you can do is take best advantage of the system as it is.

As for the IO mortgage. I see no point living poor and dying rich I would much prefer to spend my mortgage repayment money while I am here to enjoy it. I will be 65 By the time I have finished paying. What a waste of money and life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I get the feeling, outside of London that is, there will be another bout of craziness in spring 2015... maybe for a short period.

There will be some pent up demand that weren't quite ready to buy this year, those who have found ways to cheat or beat MMR, and banks with missed targets to catch up on.

I think would be owner occupiers are tapped out, unless gidiot increases HtB. The govt already pays a 20% bribe to buyers...forcing prices up 20% and making homes just as unaffordable.

The Pensioners, once they have access to their funds, are another matter. The boomer generation are by far the most 'cant go wrong with bricks and mortar' generation, and there are lots of them.

So, more BTL/amateur slumlordism is my guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure that pensioners will have that much of an effect.

Don't forget that only 25% of a lump sum is tax free. So a pensioner withdrawing £200k would lose £50,000+ in tax. Then there is stamp duty and purchase costs to factor in.

So that would rule out outright purchase for many/most.

Of course there is still the BTL mortgage option but then you've got the uncertainties around rate rises to factor in.

That might not put everybody off, but i think the well informed will realise that the property market is teetering and conclude blowing £50k in tax for an illiquid investment with a 5-6% yield is probably not worthwhile.

I suspect many will invest £20k in the 4% pensioner bond the govt is pushing, and then salt the rest away in other investment products.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I get the feeling, outside of London that is, there will be another bout of craziness in spring 2015... maybe for a short period.

There will be some pent up demand that weren't quite ready to buy this year, those who have found ways to cheat or beat MMR, and banks with missed targets to catch up on.

That's not what Ive seen outside of London.

I monitor a couple of areas: SouthWest and Yorks coast.

SW did see some activity in the later half of last year/this year.

It was more about people buying rather than people selling i.e. people investing in doing up big old lady houses.

The SW mortgage market rang out of money in ~2002. Its been bumping along with the odd bit of BTL. There are loads of BTLs.

Its gone back to being dead - salaries outside of London just cannot support house prices. The average wage can support a mortgage of ~80k. Oh, and you can forget commuting to London - way too expensive for Mon-Fri - 10K+ seaso nticket and going up.

The Yorks coast is more typical for areas way out of London.

I watch a number of towns: still popular seaside town, no longer popular seaside town and would-not-live-there-if-paid-me-post-industrial-town.

The popular seaside town saw residential mortgages drop of the cliff (pub) in 2002ish.

The market was supported by people buying holiday homes - think a BTL with a seagull on it + a lot more work.

The numbers of people having 2nd holidays has fallen off since the recession. The market is grossly overbought.

RM prices stats shows ramp 2000->2004 and then price bouncing around 2004 prices.

The number of transactions is about 30%-50% of a normal market.

People are trying to exit their holiday homes but cannot sell.

I would guess about 60% of the housing stuck has been up for sale over the last 10 years.

Very little of it has transacted.

The no-longer-popular-town is dead.

No demand for holiday homes.

Sales have been dead for ~15 years.

Big demographic shift - loads of probates, no buyers. OAPs leave houses in a box not a removal lorry.

Prices are nuts - places come on the market and sit around for ever.

Big discount on houses that have being for sale for >2 years.

Its really a buyers market. I dont know what discount people will take but I can see an EA recommend a 30% cut just to get some stuff shifted.

Local wages can support a mortgage of ~50k.

The post-industrial-town is dead.

What little economic activty is public sector, bossted by asylum seekers.

The town is a sh1t hole.

Any property investment you've made their really should be written off.

There are no local wages outside of the public sector.

Edited by spyguy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What's interesting to me is the lag.

Clearly the Tories would like to ramp the activity up before the election. But their range of options is limited if they want to achieve something on a 5 month timescale.

Still expecting some announcement along the lines of "allowing hard working families to buy their own home" in the Autumn statement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   215 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.