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R K

Yougov Poll - The Pessimism Of Ukip Supporters

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https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/20/why-ukips-rivals-are-fighting-wrong-battle/

YouGov @YouGov

Peter Kellner: "At the root of Ukip's anger is a profound pessimism about Britain’s future" - http://y-g.co/11FJPxf

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Mr Farage's opponents try to neutralise his appeal by offering policies for a better tomorrow – but what Ukip’s voters want is a programme for a better yesterday

Most Ukip voters want to emigrate. Their problem is how to get there. Their nation of choice does not receive British Airways flights. It cannot be found on any map. Even Nigel Farage cannot really help them.

The place where Ukip voters want to live is that other country, the past. By four-to-one, they would prefer to turn the clock back 20-30 years rather than continue to live in Britain as it is today. No other party’s supporters think that.

This finding, from a special YouGov survey for The Times, helps to explain why Mr Farage’s opponents find it so hard to fight him. They try to neutralise his appeal on Europe and immigration by offering policies for a better tomorrow – when, at heart, what Ukip’s voters want is a programme for a better yesterday. Like Peter Finch’s character, Howard Beale, in the 1976 film, The Network, they are as mad as hell and don’t want to take it any more.

At the root of this anger is a profound pessimism about Britain’s future. Only 19 per cent of Ukip voters are optimistic about “the prospects for British people over the next two or three years”. In contrast, 61 per cent of Conservatives are optimistic. It may have been true once that Ukip voters were like Tories, only a bit more hostile to Europe and immigrants. No longer. The difference between the two groups is now profound.

The clearest expression of this is, of course, immigration. Fully 90 per cent of Ukip voters say it has had a negative impact on Britain, while a clear majority, 58 per cent, say it has been bad for their own family’s daily life. Most Tory loyalists are also troubled by immigration’s national impact, but only 28 per cent say their own family is suffering on a daily basis.

Such a climate of fear is hard to counter. Official statistics and academic studies clearly cut no ice. Of 2.3 million immigrants from the rest of the EU, just 60,000 – less than three per cent – claim unemployment benefits such as job-seeker’s allowance. The typical Ukip voter says the figure is half a million. One recent study from economists at University College, London, says that recent immigrants pay in far more in taxes than they receive in benefits. One in four NHS doctors come from overseas.

In other words, far from “sponging off the taxpayer” and adding to NHS waiting lists, the overall impact of immigration has been to help keep taxes down and the NHS running. Most Ukip supporters simply don’t believe it.

The wrong way to fight Ukip is to accept its agenda and fight on its ground. Its core ten per cent is probably lost to the traditional parties, at least until living standards improve significantly. Ukip’s rivals should concentrate on the other 90 per cent – the people for whom immigration is often a worry to be sure, but not the be-all and end-all of their political outlook. The more the traditional parties say, in effect, “Ukip is right to bang on about immigration, don’t vote for it”, the worse they will do. For the moment, too many politicians who should know better are simply fighting the wrong battle.
Edited by R K

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Dear mathlad,

2014 - 20 = 1994

l'll let you work out what -30 would equal.

Hint:

The 80's was a pretty good decade for social mobility, hope etc.. regardless of Fatcher and other hackneyed ********.

Feel old yet?

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Most people who regard x,y or z as a bad idea might wish, if asked, to go back to the time before they happened. I'm not so sure it is because they wish to live in the 1980/90s in general.

Interesting that Labour supporters are not far behind on the pessimism front, despite looking like a very good bet to be forming the next administration. Conservative optimism looks misplaced for the same reason.

edit dates

Edited by Joan of The Tower

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I think there's a lot of correlation. People who aren't happy with the status quo are looking for alternatives. Warts n all for whatever reason UKIP is the only one for now.

People who vote for the other three are cretins by definition*, and given 'their' party will get in or at least have massive sway in parliament, why wouldn't they think everything is awesome?

*yes, yes they are.**

**X does Y, Y is rubbish, only a cretin would continue to support X.

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i would vote for anyone offering to default on the debt and legalize guns, then the debt holders could go after the crooks who created it, tony blair, gordon brown etc. i have never voted in my life to be represented by these people and now ukip look like ex conservatives, but one goal at a time and out of the eu come first.

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Can't say I wouldn't mind going back... People did't have their noses buried in their spiPhones and the assumption is one of friendliness. sigh.

Proper stuff on the tv then, too:

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Guest UK Debt Slave

This place seems to be full of left wingers these days

It's a very different forum from how it was back in 2006

I'm getting all nostalgic.........a bit like Ukippers

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Guest UK Debt Slave

Proper stuff on the tv then, too:

Can't view streaming video here but the BBC used to do real comedy 30 years ago.......even 20 years ago

The BBC doesn't do comedy anymore.............because it's not possible to offend anyone anymore without being accused of some indiscretion by the PC Marxist loon brigade.

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If by pessimism they mean being realistic and not wanting to participate in the lunacy currently taking place, then yes, I suspect UKIP supporters do fall into this category.

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So who commissioned this poll and why.

Doesn't it seem strange to anybody that someone would pay for a poll like this out of their own money.

And what were the poll result of all the other questions asked that didn't come up with the answers they wanted.

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20 years ago a house near where I live cost £62K i.e. £7K deposit and roughly £600 pcm on mortgage payments (at 12% interest rates).

Now it costs £414K so £54K deposit and £1900 pcm mortgage - going back 20 years sounds quite good unless of course you think that salaries have gone up 7 times in that period.

(BTW if anyone wants to correct those figures feel free).

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So who commissioned this poll and why.

Doesn't it seem strange to anybody that someone would pay for a poll like this out of their own money.

And what were the poll result of all the other questions asked that didn't come up with the answers they wanted.

This finding, from a special YouGov survey for The Times

See the full poll results here and here

This analysis appears in today’s Times

Edited by R K

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This place seems to be full of left wingers these days

It's a very different forum from how it was back in 2006

I'm getting all nostalgic.........a bit like Ukippers

A lot of us right wingers became more leftie when we realised that the Tory's etc were little more than rentier shills. Can't believe I'd been falling for their ****** since Thatcher.

Still not voting UKIP though and might spoil my ballot paper with 'none of the above'

If I do vote, and its a big IF, I'll vote LABOUR for the very first time

Edited by aSecureTenant

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A lot of us right wingers became more leftie when we realised that the Tory's etc were little more than rentier shills. Can't believe I'd been falling for their ****** since Thatcher.

Still not voting UKIP though and might spoil my ballot paper with 'none of the above'

If I do vote, and its a big IF, I'll vote LABOUR for the very first time

As an ex LABOUR voter I think you are making a mistake. The Tory's have raised the tax code from £6500 to £10,000 and have let us do what we want with our pensions. I think the Tory's are more left wing than Labour. They are better than Labour IMO

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As an ex LABOUR voter I think you are making a mistake. The Tory's have raised the tax code from £6500 to £10,000 and have let us do what we want with our pensions. I think the Tory's are more left wing than Labour. They are better than Labour IMO

Don't care. The Tory's could turn water into wine, and I still won't vote for them.

Doesn't matter anyway. I live in a safe Labour seat, so they could put a donkey up (in fact I think they have) and still get in.

Only Colne Valley is at risk, from UKIP possibly.

Edited by aSecureTenant

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So they want to go back to the 1970s.

How strange, given that so many people think the 70s were the absolute pits.

Keynesian policies adopted after WWII led inevitably to higher inflation and financial fragility. The Cold War guaranteed demand for industrial output, while big business and the unions conspired to raise the wages of skilled and unskilled workers alike. Inevitably, the output prices of firms with market power soared. For twenty years US dominance of world trade ensured demand for the dollar and Western manufactures generally until the exponential cost of the war in Vietnam and competition from Japan holed the boat. The OPEC oil embargo in 1973 did the rest.

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As an ex LABOUR voter I think you are making a mistake. The Tory's have raised the tax code from £6500 to £10,000 and have let us do what we want with our pensions. I think the Tory's are more left wing than Labour. They are better than Labour IMO

That was LibDem policy!

Back to the YouGov survey I liked this comment a great deal, it sums things up very well, my bold:

One of the most interesting books of the 70s was Alvin Toffler's 'Future Shock'. Basically he said that the future is happening too fast for us to adapt to it. One of the 'future' pressures he predicted correctly was too much new information coming at us, and not enough time to absorb it and react to it. In those circumstances we reject most of the information and enthusiastically adopt the most simplistic answer to any perceived problems. So he predicted that there would be a trend towards the adoption of way-out religions and cults (easy to predict in 70s America), and also extreme political parties (which in those days meant the far left).

I think the UKIP phenomenon is just this. The core UKIP voters described here feel that something is wrong with Britain. Analysis of the tax system, the voting system, the finance system and the constitution are all part of the too-much-information syndrome. The simple answer to what is wrong is THEM - in this case immigrants (mostly brown ones when you probe a bit), and Europe (which we don't seem to belong to). And Guardian readers of course. Decades of being told that this is the case by the Mail and the Sun have paid off, and nobody is going to change their minds now.

I seriously think he has a point, but one thing that hasn't been mentioned is confirmation bias and how new media makes it worse. People kind of believe X and they look for newspapers and websites that confirm to them that they are right about X, the more they read the more they are convinced and the danger is that all sense of proportion is lost. I'm as guilty as the next person here of that, the very fact I'm here is because I'm looking for confirmation of my feeling that house prices are too high.

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That was LibDem policy!

Back to the YouGov survey I liked this comment a great deal, it sums things up very well, my bold:

I seriously think he has a point, but one thing that hasn't been mentioned is confirmation bias and how new media makes it worse. People kind of believe X and they look for newspapers and websites that confirm to them that they are right about X, the more they read the more they are convinced and the danger is that all sense of proportion is lost. I'm as guilty as the next person here of that, the very fact I'm here is because I'm looking for confirmation of my feeling that house prices are too high.

Covered in the last sentence.

Decades of being told that this is the case by the Mail and the Sun have paid off, and nobody is going to change their minds now.

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That was LibDem policy!

Back to the YouGov survey I liked this comment a great deal, it sums things up very well, my bold:

I seriously think he has a point, but one thing that hasn't been mentioned is confirmation bias and how new media makes it worse. People kind of believe X and they look for newspapers and websites that confirm to them that they are right about X, the more they read the more they are convinced and the danger is that all sense of proportion is lost. I'm as guilty as the next person here of that, the very fact I'm here is because I'm looking for confirmation of my feeling that house prices are too high.

Would also explain the 'success' of the YES vote in Scotland. Yes I know they didn't win, not yet anyway, but it was a creepy campaign run on cult lines. You could see some of the distress this caused when the results came in, people literally in tears.

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The poll doesn't seem to address the issue that UKIP is mainly about.

UKIP is the United Kingdom Independence Party - it's in the name.

The Times and yougov could have had questions like for instance "Is a referendum on the eu a good idea" - but apparently not.

Even so it's not that surprising that a relatively new party has opinions maybe a bit (or a lot) less optimistic and a bit (or a lot) out of line with the old political parties as that's why new parties tend to come into being.

One would have thought that The Times and yougov would have realised that.

It's also interesting that yougov was founded by Stephan Shakespeare (born in Germany and current Chief Executive Officer of yougov) and Nadhim Zahawi (born in Iraq and former Chief Executive Officer) and both are (apparently) Conservatives - make of that what you will.

Edited by billybong

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