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zugzwang

Uk, Spain And Ireland: The Biggest Turds In The Bowl?

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Casting an eye over some recent OECD numbers I was struck by a couple of things. Firstly, the US debt ratio has grown faster than that of either Japan or France since 2008. Faster than the OECD average, in fact.

And secondly, with the exception of Spain and Ireland, the deterioration of UK finances has eclipsed the rest of the developed world by a considerable margin (the performance of Australia can be excused since its debt/GDP ratio is still insignificant.)

Change in gross govt financial liability 2008-14:

Japan: +34.19%

US: +46.28%

Greece: +54.04%

France: +45.14%

UK: +77.49%

Ireland: +165.67%

Spain: +126.04%

OECD average: +39.05%

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-debt_gov-debt-table-en

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I heard Peston the other day saying how well the USA was doing, after Cameron's warning of doom. It's all b*llocks isn't it. There is no real growth, just a debt/funny money mirage.

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What's worse, is that their end game is transferring all this government debt on to us as private debt..... better get your credit cards out!

Problem is for the UK it has higher private debt than any of the rest already. UK government debt will probably overtake France this year, the UK deficit is twice that of France and the UK's level of personal debt is also much higher than the French. As the well known France haters on this forum will tell you though France is a basket case.

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UK Govt. would tell you that their debt doesn't matter since it's all locked in at low interest rates and the UK is great :-)

Shame consumers cant get their debts fixed at 0.5% for 10 years or the debt really wouldn't matter that much.

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UK Govt. would tell you that their debt doesn't matter since it's all locked in at low interest rates and the UK is great :-)

Shame consumers cant get their debts fixed at 0.5% for 10 years or the debt really wouldn't matter that much.

I still can't believe how long this has been allowed to go on.

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I heard Peston the other day saying how well the USA was doing, after Cameron's warning of doom. It's all b*llocks isn't it. There is no real growth, just a debt/funny money mirage.

It might have been Peston saying this but basically someone on R4 the other day said the UK "recovery" was debt-led - something I've not heard mentioned much in the media.

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UK Govt. would tell you that their debt doesn't matter since it's all locked in at low interest rates and the UK is great :-)

Shame consumers cant get their debts fixed at 0.5% for 10 years or the debt really wouldn't matter that much.

Guess they would also argue that the one trillion debt is also in the hands of the British public, well boomers precisely backing annuities and forming parts of six and seven figure investment portfolios. Good job we are seeking to do away with inheritance tax so that the poor can be indebted to their spoilt kids, once they get the gilts handed over tax free.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I heard Peston the other day saying how well the USA was doing, after Cameron's warning of doom. It's all b*llocks isn't it. There is no real growth, just a debt/funny money mirage.

Indeed - thus has been always known on here.

Unfortuantely the question we'd all like to know the answer to is what range could that become and how big the percentages.

2008-2020 +500% then crash

2008-2017 +200% then crash

2008-364728568762387 5262493827486234771327671636736712657357581575385837581358518752385783751872% ongoing.

?

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UK Govt. would tell you that their debt doesn't matter since it's all locked in at low interest rates and the UK is great :-)

Shame consumers cant get their debts fixed at 0.5% for 10 years or the debt really wouldn't matter that much.

To me Uk debt doesn't matter so much at a national level because it is largely owed to ourselves. So at a national accounting level it makes less difference. At an individual level it is more significant, because it represents wealth transfer depending on circumstance.

Debts denominated in things you don't have control over are the most serious ones, because then the steps you can take to manipulate the situation are limited. So for example in Argentina where a significant proportion of the debt is in dollars (which they cannot conjure out of mid air) the situation becomes much more serious than in the UK.

I think the real issue with debt isn't something that can be easily captured with numbers. The problem for me is that politically it is helpful to extend debt in the short term but the consequence of this is systematic risk and a chance that economic systems will be completely destabilised. I don't trust politicians to bring the system back to equilibrium without being forced by external influences. Unfortunately without being able to put any timescale on how long this destabilisation process will take, and what level of debt is necessary to cause the destablisation, this knowledge to me is practically useless.

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As the well known France haters on this forum will tell you though France is a basket case.

Not just the forumites, French chanteur Renaud doesn't think much of the Hexagone either

Renaud would actually be quite at home on HPC.

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Problem is for the UK it has higher private debt than any of the rest already. UK government debt will probably overtake France this year, the UK deficit is twice that of France and the UK's level of personal debt is also much higher than the French. As the well known France haters on this forum will tell you though France is a basket case.

The 100s of thousands of young French who have moved to the UK would probably agree with that statement.

That said, it's a very nice country if you've got kids, a job and/or need a 'real' health service.

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That said, it's a very nice country if you've got kids, a job and/or need a 'real' health service.

Kids... they are going to means test family allowance. That's wiped the smile off a lot of middle class families with lots of kids. It is apparently pay-back for the Catholic protests against gay marriage.

Never have too may fixed assets, like houses, kids etc that the government can tax and you can't get rid of easily.

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UK Govt. would tell you that their debt doesn't matter since it's all locked in at low interest rates and the UK is great :-)

Shame consumers cant get their debts fixed at 0.5% for 10 years or the debt really wouldn't matter that much.

govt should have allowed debt to gdp to rise more to allow private sector to deleverage more quickly.

Wasted 5 years of failed austerity that didnt make any sense in the 1st place. QED.

Puzzling that BoE are now forecasting below target cpi for 3 yrs but not easing further and no fiscal easing either.

Bonkers. Unless they expect Labour to win and do the work for them which they appear not to be proposing

Edited by R K

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govt should have allowed debt to gdp to rise more to allow private sector to deleverage more quickly.

Wasted 5 years of failed austerity that didnt make any sense in the 1st place. QED.

Puzzling that BoE are now forecasting below target cpi for 3 yrs but not easing further and no fiscal easing either.

Bonkers. Unless they expect Labour to win and do the work for them which they appear not to be proposing

But UK households have been encouraged by Osborne to re-leverage.

We're on the way back to 150% of income again... might even be there already!

ippr-dec-13-houshold-debt-jpeg.jpg

imf%20-%20household%20debt%20as%20percen

Edited by zugzwang

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The UK is hardly making anything so the Bristol Stool Chart can't cover that condition.

Some things are called invisible exports but now it's invisible everything.

Edited by billybong

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