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John The Pessimist

No Rate Rise Until 2016 - Hsbc

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Now here's a question. At the time rates first came down to 0.5, in March 2009 wasn't it - among forecasters, what was the latest date anyone offered as to when rates would start to rise again?

Did anyone come anywhere near saying 2016?

I seem to recall Roger Bootle saying "five years" and he was at the extreme pessimistic (?) end of the spectrum. Well that's already lapsed and all....

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http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2014/02/24/hsbc-institutionally-corrupt/

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/140121/hsbc-paying-2-billion-drug-money-laundering-cartel

Maybe it's time the bankers were punished for their crimes.

Who do we vote for to get this ?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Probably won't be until way after that either. Things look like they are starting to fall apart, can't see a rise in the next few years.

I can see there being a run on the pound in the next few years though, which will mean rates rising.

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I shamefully admit that I have just been approved for a 1.99% mortgage with HSBC, which tracks 1.49% above BOE base rate for life.

Property118 might have some information for you.

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The 30 year gilt is telling us it might be closer to 2061 than 2016.

50 years of QE....now thats an interesting thought.

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Now here's a question. At the time rates first came down to 0.5, in March 2009 wasn't it - among forecasters, what was the latest date anyone offered as to when rates would start to rise again?

Did anyone come anywhere near saying 2016?

I seem to recall Roger Bootle saying "five years" and he was at the extreme pessimistic (?) end of the spectrum. Well that's already lapsed and all....

Mainstream economists didn't see the GFC coming and still have no credible explanation for it - economic depressions are exogenous to the neoclassical/New Keynesian steady state model. Understandably, they also failed to anticipate the flat-line 'recovery' post-2008. In effect, these are two phases of the same deleveraging process.

Steve Keen is a much better guide, as ever.

The global economy won’t return to sustained growth until debt levels are substantially reduced. With debt at its current level, the general tendency of the private sector will be to delever, so that the change in credit will deduct from economic growth rather than contributing to it. Any short-term boost to demand from the Credit Impulse – such as that occurring in early 2011 – will ultimately dissipate, since if it were sustained then ultimately debt levels would have to rise again. Since the household sector in particular is debt-saturated, credit growth will hit a debt ceiling and give way to deleveraging again.

The US economy in particular is likely to be trapped in a never-ending sequence of ‘double dips,’ just as Japan has been for the last two decades.

Keen, Steve (2011-09-22). Debunking Economics - Revised, Expanded and Integrated Edition: The Naked Emperor Dethroned? (Kindle Locations 8534-8539). . Kindle Edition.

Edited by zugzwang

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