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Oh Dear, What Now? More Stimulus In The Autumn Statement?

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/david-cameron-third-eurozone-recession-g20-warning

David Cameron warns that second global crash is looming
David Cameron has issued a stark message that “red warning lights are flashing on the dashboard of the global economy” in the same way as when the financial crash brought the world to its knees six years ago.

Writing in the Guardian at the close of the G20 summit in Brisbane, Cameron says there is now “a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty” that presents a real risk to the UK recovery, adding that the eurozone slowdown is already having an impact on British exports and manufacturing.

His warning comes days after the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, claimed a spectre of stagnation was haunting Europe. The International Monetary Fund managing director, Christine Lagarde, expressed fears in Brisbane that a diet of high debt, low growth and unemployment may yet become “the new normal in Europe”.

Cameron has adopted the more sombre tone in the runup to the chancellor’s autumn statement on 3 December, when the Office of Budget Responsibility will produce new growth forecasts and spell out the impact on public finances...........

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Politically, Conservatives believe an emphasis on the risks still facing the UK will make anxious voters recoil from handing stewardship of a fragile economy to a relatively untried Labour team.

Same old arguments made by every party in power.

It'll make no difference whether it's the Lib the Lab or the Con branch.

Any "anxious voters" are just as likely to recoil from giving the Lib or the Con another chance after the last few years.

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"Politically, Conservatives believe an emphasis on the risks still facing the UK will make anxious voters recoil from handing stewardship of a fragile economy to a relatively untried Labour team."

He does have a point!

What's relatively untried mean? Compared to whom? We tried them last time and look how that turned out.... :lol:

Edit to add:-

Seeing how the BOE are the economy, and have taken over the whole business of pricing risk, choosing winners and losers, why don't they run for election? We could then have the BOE party, it would be like a dictatorship but with less citizen input.

Edited by XswampyX

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At least he implies there are limits to how much Gov can borrow (he says it's a choice when, really it is not) to keep things the way they are.

Cameron says there is now “a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty” that presents a real risk to the UK recovery, adding that the eurozone slowdown is already having an impact on British exports and manufacturing.

Perhaps if there were fewer VIs backed in the economy, younger people would have more opportunity to focus on creation and real entrepreneurship... failures yes, but one or two companies make it and they in turn bring about more succesful companies.

Possibly even bringing about emerging new ways of productive economic activity that old VIs (including many of us now) can not even imagine... way beyond just old-world manufacturing and selling houses at higher prices, and the anti-entrepreneurship policies such as Help-to-Buy to try and get younger people in as much debt as possible.

Help To Buy Will Encourage Entrepreneurial Endeavours And Drive The Recovery

http://www.pieria.co.uk/articles/the_uks_accidental_stimulus

Apparently homeowners set up statistically larger businesses than renters. Therefore, help to buy will increase the pool of 'better' entrepreneurs driving growth in the economy.

The end.

We r so fcked

There are many experts, of course, who will say that the key to prosperity is to revive manufacturing. Their prescription to do this is to focus incentives in ways that encourage long-term, fixed investment. It sounds plausible when viewed from a conventional perspective. But it is backward-looking and probably won't work. The reason fixed investment is lagging is that its productivity has fallen. Most of all the industries that figured in the post-World War II boom now face saturated markets with worldwide overcapacity. Force-feeding additional capital into fixed investment in the manufacturing side will only aggravate the long-term problem by increasing the overcapacity. It also takes resources away from the small business sector which creates new jobs.

Saturated or slowly growing replacement markets with overcapacity require companies to compete by increasing productivity. This is a good thing in itself. But higher productivity with flat markets means fewer jobs. Short of buying the products directly and giving them away, which is obviously ruinous, there is little that can be done to rescue old-line manufacturing in aggregate.

The hope for the future lies in incubating new products and services, in other words, in entrepreneurship. To do that, flexibility and adaptability must be the hallmarks of the economy and government policy. Legions of small businesses should be encouraged to form. Many ideas need to be tested in the market place in order to come up with the 20 to 30 major innovations that will create vigorous economic growth. Unfortunately, that is not likely to be the path that policy takes.

Here is one of our entrepreneurs.. living in a shed, whilst older VI counting their HPI on £1m+ ordinary houses.... and Wonderpup's 'The VI won't let lower prices happen/ Be careful what you wish for' / 'Get your debt on' new victims stretch to buy £500K two bed flats in Brixton and Tooting.

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Seeing how the BOE are the economy, and have taken over the whole business of pricing risk, choosing winners and losers, why don't they run for election? We could then have the BOE party, it would be like a dictatorship but with less citizen input.

:lol:

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Well it's a good job Britain is well placed to weather the storm having spent the years of the Cameron premiership getting our asset prices and debt levels back down from the insane 2007 levels that caused the last crash.

What's that you say?

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Well it's a good job Britain is well placed to weather the storm having spent the years of the Cameron premiership getting our asset prices and debt levels back down from the insane 2007 levels that caused the last crash.

What's that you say?

Yes.

The UK has a business cycle that last between 6 and 9 years.

Labour, by the magic of huge debt, managed to massage the slowdown in 2000, making the 2007 one massive.

2007+7 = 2014 simple really.

The cycles is just a rough guide. But its better than the Boe have come up with.

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At least he implies there are limits to how much Gov can borrow (he says it's a choice when, really it is not) to keep things the way they are.

Perhaps if there were fewer VIs backed in the economy, younger people would have more opportunity to focus on creation and real entrepreneurship... failures yes, but one or two companies make it and they in turn bring about more succesful companies.

Possibly even bringing about emerging new ways of productive economic activity that old VIs (including many of us now) can not even imagine... way beyond just old-world manufacturing and selling houses at higher prices, and the anti-entrepreneurship policies such as Help-to-Buy to try and get younger people in as much debt as possible.

Here is one of our entrepreneurs.. living in a shed, whilst older VI counting their HPI on £1m+ ordinary houses.... and Wonderpup's 'The VI won't let lower prices happen/ Be careful what you wish for' / 'Get your debt on' new victims stretch to buy £500K two bed flats in Brixton and Tooting.

This

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This

Indeed, the whole push these days to "defeat" Russia is to make their economy worthless, which means they cant pay the troops, and we "win" in Ukraine.

It seems to me that "stimulus" does the exact same thing...defeats capital by further malinvestment.

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The entrepreneurs these days are the "canny" BTL investors who had the foresight to be born at the right time. All these young people complaining should have just been born a few decades earlier instead of spending money on iPads.

Edited by fru-gal

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I try to console myself by thinking just how much worse it would be now if Labour had been in power 2010 - now

But there is no doubt it looks pretty ropey and the interventions by Georgie since 2010 haven't really done much other than kick the can down the road have they?

Japan's figures today simply serve as a reminder about how long an economy can go without growth...

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I try to console myself by thinking just how much worse it would be now if Labour had been in power 2010 - now

But there is no doubt it looks pretty ropey and the interventions by Georgie since 2010 haven't really done much other than kick the can down the road have they?

Japan's figures today simply serve as a reminder about how long an economy can go without growth...

I don't think it'd be worse at all the property bubble was deflating, the free market party havw spent hundreds of billions reinflating it.

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If we had suffered more Scottish git in 2010, at least we would most probably lanced the economical boil, instead we are drowning, and drinking Cameron's pus. Possibly the very worst result really.

Amen. Pus. Yes.

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Crash caused by the Tory party.

Kind of him to warn in advance that they know that's what their policies will do.

Edited by R K

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The Tories have extended the socialist bank bailout, implemented a socialist Help-To-Buy housing policy, and instigated a communist work for welfare program.

Maggie must be spinning in her grave.

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Perhaps this is his way of warning people about the forthcoming crash which is out of the government's hands?

Far more likely that he just wants to pump up the economy ahead of the next election and is using the doom and gloom as an excuse for doing it.

A lot of people on here said George shot his bolt too early with HTB, and MMR has taken some of the wind out of the sails of the housing market.

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The Tories have extended the socialist bank bailout, implemented a socialist Help-To-Buy housing policy, and instigated a communist work for welfare program.

Maggie must be spinning in her grave.

Indeed

The first set of VIs that Maggie cut down was the Tory party leadership (Ted Heath, Eton boy I believe)

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100108749/printing-money-is-the-last-resort-of-desperate-governments-when-all-other-policies-have-failed/

"

'Printing money is the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed'

So said George Osborne in January 2009

Replace desperate with corrupt and you be closer to the mark I think.

If they resume Q.E. I'd personally start to protest outside of parliament.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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"George did admit one exception. Quantitative easing, he allowed, 'can’t be ruled out as a last resort in the fight against deflation"

I read this as.....Rich man says...we must stop things getting cheaper at all costs, my rich friends need to be able to pay their debts off.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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