Ulfar Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 I know I'll be decried for saying this, but... look, we do have the tools to rid ourselves of the banking cancer. If we as a society moved to disintermediate the banks by using Bitcoin for transferring value, and gold/silver for savings we can do it. Or we could all use cash. Get paid, draw all of your money out. Got savings diversify them into something the bank doesn't control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Mason's rage seems pretty synthetic to me. He's not likely to be personally affected by what's happening with the economy. He's old enough to have bought property when it was cheap and he has a well-paid and fairly secure job. The impact on his life of a few bankers messing about with LIBOR or exchange rates? Close to zero. I'm sure there are journalists out there who are full of genuine rage, but they are probably 20-25 years younger than 1960-born Mason. Exactly. Partly the malstructuring in the economy even makes such work for him; to be on tv and report on. I would just like to see some honest wider analysis and solutions, and that involves allowing markets and asset prices to rebalance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 You lot are turning on Mason?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
begob Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 You lot are turning on Mason?! Weird, isn't it. Goldbugs can turn and turn and yet go on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeroSumGame Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 You lot are turning on Mason?! How to shoot the one of the very few allies the HPC lobby actually has. Wierd isn't it? Mason has found freedom and a voice since since he left PravdaVision Inkorporated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 (edited) Maybe it takes more than just 2 minutes of one person on one of the mainstream media outlets (CH4) to be fully convincing. Edited November 15, 2014 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 If he came out here, in one of his most recent articles, that solution is allowing market to normalise, allowing some market opportunities for others, and allowing hpc in low-mid-high prime, I would back him all the way. Instead it's all about wage inequality/ limiting competition, boosting up welfare spending, with him, it seems. £33K is fair income on global level; younger people up against it with high house prices. What is he going on about? Too many want to have wages rise for younger people, whilst also wanting for HPI for themselves. If you’re earning £33k you are – well, where exactly? Numerous people we talked to on this salary thought they were in the bottom third of the wage-scale. In fact, in a single-person household someone earning £33k would be in the top third. And a £60,000 salary puts you in the top 10% of earners. We all dream of earning more, but throughout the western world, wage inequalities have widened and, since the financial crisis began, real incomes have stagnated. The solution is easy to envisage – but distasteful to mainstream politics. It means generous welfare benefits, strong unions with institutional bargaining arrangements and less globalisation: less offshoring, less outsourcing, less temporary work. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/09/low-paid-outraged-workers-ready-fight-back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 (edited) How to shoot the one of the very few allies the HPC lobby actually has. Wierd isn't it? How is Mason an ally of "the HPC lobby"? Has he ever said anything about house prices? Mason wants more welfare spending, stronger unions and a more regulated labour market. It's classic Old Labour stuff which he probably picked up during his childhood in a working class family in Lancashire. Is that what the "HPC lobby" wants? Edited November 15, 2014 by Dorkins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 How is Mason an ally of "the HPC lobby"? Has he ever said anything about house prices? Mason wants more welfare spending, stronger unions and a more regulated labour market. It's classic Old Labour stuff, and you could almost imagine Gordon Brown coming out with it. Is that what the "HPC lobby" wants? 1. See below. An observer to it; I didn't see too much objection to it from him. Danny Dorling is too gentle, but much smarter than anyone in the piece - back in the studio. Mason (note one of the questions which occurs to him first): "And what politician is going to do that?" Mason re forever HPI: "Past experience suggests it can't go on - but knowing the British housing market, we'll probably die trying." Please hurry up and do that. So you can make all the correct conclusions you like but until the day IT happens they're just idle musings. Timing will be everything and even then people will be queueing to catch a falling knife on the way down. The behaviour you and Fully Detached reference (I have said similar recently) is so ingrained into tens of millions of people, nothing other than a massacre will change the housing dyanmic and even then the potential consequences could be more extreme than we are prepared for. Not that I've got any sympathy anymore, so bring it on I say. Oh, and to further paraphrase Marx, Other People's Money is the opium of the muppets. 2. Old Labour - Ancient, vicious, discredited ideas, with that old controlling Labour bias pushing to the fore - imo. 19 February 2014Jon Snow:..but first to a bidding frenzy that is going on right now in east London, and our Culture and Digital Editor Paul Mason is there; Paul. Paul: Jon, in this estate agents window, two bedroom flats, there's none going for less than half a million pounds and all night people have been queuing up around here to place sealed bids on properties they're not even allowed to see. That's how crazy it gets when you have a house price bubble. Mid/late 20s hopeful punter queuing up (Victim of media/the banks/"they've only got 5 GCSEs and easily led" / 'Didn't know what they were doing' etc: It's ruthless and it's just, you know, you don't know whether you're going to be successful or not. There was a guy walking down the street and he said "What's going on here?" and there's a house for sale in London, causing a queue, trying to get somewhere; it's just impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hirop Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 He has a fine taste in Northern Soul and wants to see the bankster class (and their bosses) held accountable for their corrupt practices and he is on TV saying it. Whats not to like? It's not you or I he is seeking is persuade, as we are already persuaded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy soy Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Mason's rage seems pretty synthetic to me. He's not likely to be personally affected by what's happening with the economy. He's old enough to have bought property when it was cheap and he has a well-paid and fairly secure job. The impact on his life of a few bankers messing about with LIBOR or exchange rates? Close to zero. I'm sure there are journalists out there who are full of genuine rage, but they are probably 20-25 years younger than 1960-born Mason. Like his predecessor, Faisal Islam. Faisal always brought up housing and talked about mortgages being the real financial weapons of mass destruction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulfar Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Like his predecessor, Faisal Islam. Faisal always brought up housing and talked about mortgages being the real financial weapons of mass destruction. Will he like Faisal Islam be corrupted by money. The problem for Mason is he is a lone voice in the wilderness of mainstream media, lone voices are easy to ignore silence. Our journalists should be holding those in power to account but that is incredibly hard when you are fighting not only those in power but a state propaganda organization in auntie Pravda that has massive resources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 a link to a matt taibi story in rolling stone http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-9-billion-witness-20141106 which shows in america just how much the justice system is controlled by the banks . Given the similar lack of action here , can only assume similar corruption here . Given the USA shenanigans with the crash and its response (in the usa) .. someone was able to buy up bad debt using the $700B allocated but no oversight by congress , I wasnt surprised by this ... read and weep for democracy . . rockhopper Unfortunately it's probably more likely that Fleischmann will get prosecuted for breaching her confidentiality agreement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Thanks for the reminder re Paxman article; yes I too agree with Mason's frustration over unethical behaviour inside banks and lack of prosecutions. It's just when a report comes out - such as a book some journalist was trying to launch a few months ago how ALL of the blame has been put onto the bankers for problems , with so many people in denial that we are where we are because people over-borrowed, over-expanded, were complacent and entitled - and too many people who have gained multiple times over unwilling to accept that view - unwilling to even process it. Would like to see more older owners push for lower house prices, and less solutions which involve a quest for wage-growth / higher benefits / limiting competition - whilst almost every day we still have a broken culture that champions rising house prices, already extreme in many parts, as a 'good thing'. There is definitely a tendency for people to see the bankers as doing something wrong in isolation, and for everyone else to be simple victims of banker avarice with no consideration of their own. Personally I'm of the school of thought that there has been a lot of irresponsible behaviour on both sides of the equation and simply scapegoating the bankers will not be a solution in itself, but ignoring their role is equally dangerous. Bankers should be prosecuted, zombie banks should fail, but zombie mortgage holders should also account for their own reckless behaviour and not given a free pass. People need to learn that they absolutely have to do their own due diligence, no matter where the state says this responsibility lies, otherwise we will just continually revisit the same problems over and over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 There is definitely a tendency for people to see the bankers as doing something wrong in isolation, and for everyone else to be simple victims of banker avarice with no consideration of their own. Personally I'm of the school of thought that there has been a lot of irresponsible behaviour on both sides of the equation and simply scapegoating the bankers will not be a solution in itself, but ignoring their role is equally dangerous. Bankers should be prosecuted, zombie banks should fail, but zombie mortgage holders should also account for their own reckless behaviour and not given a free pass. People need to learn that they absolutely have to do their own due diligence, no matter where the state says this responsibility lies, otherwise we will just continually revisit the same problems over and over again. The pass is factual. HPI is hard-locked in, in my areas. And values way beyond peak. Just what consquence have many older owners had? Their homes going up 25%+ extra value in many areas near me since 2007. They do not need to learn/be taught - they need to experience hard consequences of markets being allowed to normalise. Agreed, but too many owners (not overindebted zombies) still do not associate banking-and-borrower excesses, to the value of their homes (I am surrounded by owners who think their homes worth £350K- £half-a-million+...... thousands and thousands of such homes - and even during this 'crisis' - warped logic that their homes have naturally had hpi. The hpi came from buyers and sellers at margin transacting at higher prices. One of the things that caught my attention is how one of the more ardent Money Saving Expert forum bulls has managed to backfill the logic of the 2008 crisis. They have determined to their own satisfaction that the crisis was nothing to do with the amount of lending that had been extended against property (including UK property) and the ability of the borrowers (including UK households) to service the debts on a continuing basis, but instead was the consequence of a crisis in interbank lending which was caused solely by the problems with some RMBS backed by housing in some American cities. To borrow a phrase from Michael Burry, "[t]he ignorance is wilful". I think that the point is worth reiterating - it seems at this point that one of the major consequences of the policy response from Brown's Labour government and the present Coalition to the financial crisis as a whole is that the many people who previously believed that house prices don't fall now believe that house prices will not be allowed to fall. I'm running with the idea that their confidence about the lack of risk involved in buying at any price, no matter how estranged from earnings, has increased as a consequence of the crisis! That's why in threads like this I'm guessing at chinks in the armour of the current 'machine'. Sentiment may well be more solid in the world of the property bull than it was in 2007 and hence waiting for sentiment to spontaneously change may be a long wait for a train that doesn't come. Something will emerge in due course, but as to what and when - who knows. I think that BTL is a soft spot, and this thread is just one guess at how a price correction mechanism can arise from rock solid bullish sentiment. 0.5% / $£Trillions QE... new bubble (in my areas - not all areas) - can only hope malinvestement by yield chasers and forever HPIers is going to see some future consequence. Too many older owners, and hpcers, claiming older owners can't be expected to downsize from homes (which as Danny Dorling says are totally adding to stresses in market, where 1 person living in 4 bed house) worth £500K because, for 'why should these owners pay a little in stamp duty in their next purchase' (although claiming younger people should pay and meet ultra hgh prices). Hard consequences. It seems to me now that the politicians know that the sheeple can be relied upon to believe that house prices are about to race away, regardless of the prices and the broader economic context, (presumably many of these politicians simply hold the same opinion themselves - i.e. they are not looking down at Joe Public and saying "This cretin thinks house prices can accelerate way from earnings forever" - they themselves look at the HPI in the past 'empirically' and assume that HPI is some iron law of economic nature).[..]However, all hope is not lost. We are bumping along the bottom on mortgage rates. Even if they don't go higher, they won't go lower. If my sketch of how the bulls are behaving is right then what we are seeing is bubble equity 'captured' by households during the pre-2008 phase being handed over to the banks as BTL deposits. 'Winners' are being lured into putting their 'winnings' back on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TheBlueCat Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Given the existence of utterly damning evidence, it beggars belief that there have been no criminal charges here. It's absolutely clear that the traders involved have a case to answer. It also seems likely that some of their managers have been criminally negligent, although that's harder to prove in court. On his last point though, where he asks what's so hard about stopping it, the answer is that there are almost countless ways in which fraud can be committed when there's money moving around. Figuring out what all of them are, especially those that involve collusion between staff at different banks, is impossible. This case would likely never have come to light if the traders in question had been smart enough to use PAYG mobiles to talk to each other instead of Bloomberg chat rooms (how dumb was that?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The pass is factual. Agree with all your points Venger, the vast majority have seen no consequences to date. However, unlike for the bankers who are closing in on being free and clear, there are no statutes of limitations on negative equity and I very much doubt this thing is over just yet. The pass for reckless borrowers is likely to be temporary barring massive, and to my mind highly unlikely, wage inflation. The general public sentiment that erroneously places all blame on the bankers, who do justly deserve some of it, and none on the borrowers, who should also shoulder their fair share, might well call for bail outs of the over indebted but I doubt they will be indulged. The government have limited remaining options, they can't lower rates by any significant degree and they lack the funds for direct, non-repayable, bail-outs on any significant scale (I very much doubt they would get out the printing press for the "little people" and the banks are likely well-positioned for a crash by now). Many in negative equity will go on paying their mortgages regardless in any case, with no real damage other than the psychological trauma of all property owners who consider themselves so assuredly asset rich and will be shocked to discover that the world is not as they thought it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Yes Neverwhere, totally agree - prosecute the bankers for obvious frauds and malpractice - but hopefully the position of those who have complacently been blaming the banks for everything, from very cushy HPI positions... the assuredly asset rich, are going to some market reaction eventually. Rising debt levels, including the shift to putting in on Government debt books, creates economic feedback that eventually forces a deflationary reaction. Debt cannot indefinitely compound faster than income. Those zombie debtors are part of it, but the outright owners and equity rich at the mid-prime end face similar pressures. Who are they going to sell to? Far fewer upsizers for these £750K+ homes, imo - in my area at least Ok the debtor zombies. Commercial litigation solicitor (renter-saver together with his accountant wife) relative recently got a possession order on a £1m+ house; I don't tend to mention their work on forum as it is privileged and wouldn't want to let any identifiable info slip. The owner wasn't involved in BTL or anything; just racked up debts with others. There's this woman, similar pressures, self-created. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/201720-liz-jones-mk2/ Seeing quite a few mid-prime houses on market that look empty... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47049628.html Then there are many an equity rich, owner, looking like there's far fewer buyers in market to meet their 2002-2007 purchase price at mid prime side. Was asking price £1,200,000, now £1,050,000.http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44290688.html?premiumA=trueBought in 2010 for £965,000 - previously 2004 for£ £790,000http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=44290688&sale=44352449&country=england more.. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/201336-its-getting-better-all-the-time-asking-prices-vs-last-sold-prices/#entry1102604940 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve99 Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 But Boris says we shouldn't be bashng the bankers, they are hardworking folk with enormous talent. If we threaten to punish them for breaking laws, we would drive them out - and no-one would be left to run the banks. In fact so was Stalin ,Hitler and Pol Pott, all worked hard and really believed in what they were doing. Boris is an idiot in public and I suspect a full on C-word behind the scenes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 There is definitely a tendency for people to see the bankers as doing something wrong in isolation, and for everyone else to be simple victims of banker avarice with no consideration of their own. Personally I'm of the school of thought that there has been a lot of irresponsible behaviour on both sides of the equation and simply scapegoating the bankers will not be a solution in itself, but ignoring their role is equally dangerous. Bankers should be prosecuted, zombie banks should fail, but zombie mortgage holders should also account for their own reckless behaviour and not given a free pass. People need to learn that they absolutely have to do their own due diligence, no matter where the state says this responsibility lies, otherwise we will just continually revisit the same problems over and over again. when rates are cut to zero, then you are a fool if you hold savings. You should borrow like crazy because the inflation will erode your debt. Cutting rates to zero is the primary cause of this situation, and the govt/banks are solely responsible. of course , now we have a hp bubble, and the risks of a corresponding hp bust. Now is the time to get out of property, rates cannot practically go lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olde guto Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I have to applaud the former commodities trader and son of a stockbroker Nigel Farage and UKIP for diverting attention away from the financial institutions that helped get us into the mess we're in. A cynic might even think UKIP have been taking money from The City to help deflect attention away from their activities. Some might consider it surprising that two of their biggest donors are linked to the City, Insurance millionaire Arron Banks who donated £1million to UKIP and Stuart Wheeler founder of financial services firm IG Group who donated £100,000. Oh and lets not forget the Tories, they've done a sterling job of deflecting attention away from their chums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Compare and contrast The fine, the bonus cap and the potential of losing their job - for multi billion ££ fraud by those protected by a Banking Licence with The prison term for stealing 15 Toblerones http://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/man-who-stole-15-toblerones-8079970 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 (edited) when rates are cut to zero, then you are a fool if you hold savings. You should borrow like crazy because the inflation will erode your debt. Cutting rates to zero is the primary cause of this situation, and the govt/banks are solely responsible. of course , now we have a hp bubble, and the risks of a corresponding hp bust. Now is the time to get out of property, rates cannot practically go lower. You would be an even bigger fool if you put your savings into something that lost it's value due to market movements even if the savings were alongside borrowed money and especially if it was pension savings. Isn't it akin to that thing they call being whipsawed - you lose both ways. Of course sometimes it's difficult to win whatever especially when in competition with those first in line for receiving QE money. whipsawed : subjected to a double market loss through trying inopportunely to recoup a loss by a subsequent short sale of the same security Edited November 16, 2014 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 when rates are cut to zero, then you are a fool if you hold savings. You should borrow like crazy because the inflation will erode your debt. Cutting rates to zero is the primary cause of this situation, and the govt/banks are solely responsible. of course , now we have a hp bubble, and the risks of a corresponding hp bust. Now is the time to get out of property, rates cannot practically go lower. When rates are cut to zero then it would be better to hope to hell that you had already loaded up on (I would still say, given the future was unknown at that point, responsible levels of) debt while interest rates were high and asset prices were low, which can now be inflated away / paid down in a low interest environment. Waiting for asset prices to take off under ZIRP before buying is a foolhardy gamble as anyone making it would then need to time the market just right in order to get out without losing their entire position and more (how many people think they are doing this now, in London prime, only to find their property is not selling into a stagnating market?) Loose credit is the primary cause of this situation, ZIRP is a part of that but other kinds of loose credit existed beforehand and asset prices had already taken off way before ZIRP was introduced. I suspect the best time to get out of property was about six months ago... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 You would be an even bigger fool if you put your savings into something that lost it's value due to market movements even if the savings were alongside borrowed money and especially if it was pension savings. Isn't it akin to that thing they call being whipsawed - you lose both ways. Of course sometimes it's difficult to win whatever especially when in competition with those first in line for receiving QE money. sure you can ride your luck and attempt to time it exactly. But the prudent man may say , in bubbles of this size, better 5 years early than one day late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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