Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
ThePiltdownMan

Great Harwood

Recommended Posts

I was recently in Great Harwood, having not been there since the 1990s and it has changed quite a bit since then. I noticed there's 3 supermarkets (Aldi, Morrisons, Tesco) all within 1/2 a mile - and full size ones not the metro shops. I had a look on houseprices.io for BB6 and it's mostly green. The ones that are red are predominantly the Brockhall Village newish builds from 10 years ago. For a small town 3 supermarkets seems excessive, and bearing in mind it's not an easy commute to any cities I can't see why the property prices are staying up. Any ideas?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Piltdown Man,

I just don't know about the supermarkets.

I would say that it is on the edge of the Ribble Valley and house prices are much more affordable in Great Harwood than in the Ribble Valley itself. So the most probable explanation is prices are being propped up there by its wealthier neighbour.

Good Schools have a lot do do with this.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2734932/Parents-want-send-children-best-state-schools-face-paying-500-000-extra-home.html

I am not sure if Great Harwood is in the catchment area though, it would be worth checking this out if you can.

Although it might not be an easy commute to anywhere, Great Harwood is at least served by the M65 with good links to Manchester, Preston, Liverpool, Lancaster and the Lake District all within an hours drive. The Forest of Bowland, which is an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty is only 20 minutes away.

Whalley is a much more desireable place to live, but it is much more expensive and harder to get to the M65 from there. There is lots of development planned to go ahead in Whalley and one of the fears is increased traffic congestion making it harder to get to the motorway.Save Whalley Village

Also Great Harwood suffers less from the stigma's attached to its neighbouring towns on the M65 corridor

Accrington, Blackburn, Burnley and Nelson. The North side of Great Harwood is very green, the south side and the centre should be avoided IMHO.

I would say that the last time I went to Great Harwood was in the 1990's too. I used to enjoy playing chess against the town team who were based in this pub. Decline is everwhere unfortunately. In the North West, the Ribble Valley seems to be the region that is suffering least of all.

Its funny that you mention Brockhall Village because I have three theories forming about that.

1. The decline in value of the properties there seems to be linked to the decline in fortunes of Blackburn Football Club who I believe have a training ground there.

2. The decline in value of the more expensive homes at Brockhall Village are perhaps pushing down the values of other homes homes in the surrounding areas.

3. I believe there is a Management Company that looks after the communal areas in Brockhall Village, and there is also a residents association and the two don't always see eye to eye. I think this could be affecting supply and demand on this development.

Compared to many other properties in Brockhall Village this one seems to be good value (although still very expensive)

159m2 bought for £312,500 in March 2006, New build sold in December 2003 for £245,000

It has been on the market for quite some time and hasn't sold yet, although clearly empty.

Thank you for prompting me to speak about the North West, I think we should be a bit more active on HPC in Lancashire.

Best regards

Thames

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Piltdown Man,

I just don't know about the supermarkets.

Compared to many other properties in Brockhall Village this one seems to be good value (although still very expensive)

159m2 bought for £312,500 in March 2006, New build sold in December 2003 for £245,000

It has been on the market for quite some time and hasn't sold yet, although clearly empty.

Thank you for prompting me to speak about the North West, I think we should be a bit more active on HPC in Lancashire.

Best regards

Thames

presumably no one is prepared to pay over 250k for it, and rightly so. Are there many jobs in that area?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Andy T,

Yes the Stamp Duty threshold should put a dampener on it, but you would be surprised at how many people are prepared to pay more than £250K to live there:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=REGION^96741&searchLocation=Brockhall+Village&propertyType=1&referrer=listChangeCriteria

Someone even paid £3million. Photo's are no longer on line unfortunately... It looked a bit like the Clampett's Beverley Hills home.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=STREET^1504300&searchLocation=Franklin+Hill&propertyType=1&referrer=listChangeCriteria

As for what jobs these people do I have no idea... I wish I did know though, I should be retraining!

See below for a table of average prices for detached houses on the development since 1995.

They busted through the 250K Threshold in 2003 and are still comfortably above it despite sliding 13% since 2007.

Region (All) Town (All) Type D Village BROCKHALL VILLAGE Street (All) Number (All) Postcode (All) Row Labels Average of Price 1995 95,000 1996 155,000 1997 126,172 1998 145,968 1999 163,382 2000 204,869 2001 197,515 2002 241,866 2003 289,591 2004 325,873 2005 373,000 2006 371,873 2007 387,929 2008 379,679 2009 388,143 2010 382,958 2011 369,583 2012 360,900 2013 366,455 2014 339,633 Grand Total 284,685

Best regards

Thames

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Andy T, Biggest nearby employer is Samlesbury BAE, and there will be some well paid teaching jobs at Stonyhurst, but it's not a part of the country people gravitate towards looking for employment.

@Thames Ditton, As you say, the decline is everywhere but I envisaged that it would be worse, akin to the urban decay you see in Blackpool. It did occur to me that it could be a mild case of white flight from nearby towns by people who can't afford the likes of Clitheroe or Whalley. I noticed in Burnley, Nelson and Colne there are terraces well below 50K but none at that level even in the south end of the town.

Clitheroe and Whalley are definitely places I would consider for retirement, although I can't see 400 new builds improving it much. I would avoid anywhere like Brockhall village where there is a management company, it seems too much like paying council tax twice over. houseprices.io shows the % change factoring in inflation so you get a more dramatic decline than in your chart.

https://houseprices.io/blackburn/brockhall-village

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Piltdown Man,

Thanks for your reply to Andy T regarding emloyment. I am thinking about retraining as a rocket scientist ;)

The Urban Decay in Blackpool is almost unique, almost... because there is also Morecambe.

I think it is to do with the tourism industry suffering and then bringing in people on benefits to fill the hotels.

This is certainly how it happened in Morecambe. There are probably a whole host of other reasons too.

I think Great Harwood is safe from that level of decline.

I would do a lot of research before choosing an area to retire too. For instance Whalley is going to change a lot, it has around 550 new builds that have been approved, a further 50 in the planning permission stages... developers are winning all the battles, despite strong local opposition. The long term plan has a further 1,500 homes earmarked for Whalley and 500 more in neighbouring Barrow.

You can see the impact on a google earth satellite image here.

Clitheroe is having similar issues, so be careful if you want a home with a view!

Thanks for the link to housepricesio. I am in the middle of building my own house prices analysis and it is true I haven't adjusted for inflation yet. I am wondering if you can help me with a conundrum.I am having a conversation with myself and I am hoping you can help.

What extra information does adjusting for inflation bring?

Money tends to lose purchasing power over time anyway.

The chart that is inflation adjusted gives a more dramatic effect.

And I also agree that the effect is real. But is it relevant?

If you are comparing houses that have been equally affected by the same level of inflation?

It could be relevant if you have an alternative way of saving cash that is inflation proof?

I am pretty sure most people don't have that.

In fact I can't think of many ways an average joe like me could hedge effectively against inflation.

(So far I have thought about Foreign Exchange, Precious Metals, taking on more debt or perhaps a clever basket of shares - but none of those solutions is really satisfactory for me personally)

Also when we analyse house prices we are usually doing that in real time (ie today with the value of the £ in todays terms).

We might have been able to buy more with £1 ten years ago... but what can we do about that now?

The purchasing power of the £ is what it is. If we borrowed £1 ten years ago that might be a different story.

Here's hoping that you can take apart my reasoning and convince me that inflation is important here.

And if you do I will adjust my analysis. Its not a difficult thing to do, I am wondering about the analytical value in doing so.

Have a good day

Best regards

Thames

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   211 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.