Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
ftb_one_day

Hang On A Minute

Recommended Posts

Every time I've glanced over this site I've seen you all working yourselves up into a frenzy over the "SIPPS myth", and how it must be "debunked" before the evil, plotting, hysterical, house-price-ramping media convince everyone of a new boom. Then suddenly, on the announcement that the rules are to change, you're all predictably bursting with glee that a new risk to your treasured house price crash has thankfully been averted. Why the celebration if the SIPPS would have had no effect anyway?

Only a question, but I'm still bracing myself for the abuse...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every time I've glanced over this site I've seen you all working yourselves up into a frenzy over the "SIPPS myth", and how it must be "debunked" before the evil, plotting, hysterical, house-price-ramping media convince everyone of a new boom. Then suddenly, on the announcement that the rules are to change, you're all predictably bursting with glee that a new risk to your treasured house price crash has thankfully been averted. Why the celebration if the SIPPS would have had no effect anyway?

Only a question, but I'm still bracing myself for the abuse...

Because we might have been wrong! :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every time I've glanced over this site I've seen you all working yourselves up into a frenzy over the "SIPPS myth", and how it must be "debunked" before the evil, plotting, hysterical, house-price-ramping media convince everyone of a new boom. Then suddenly, on the announcement that the rules are to change, you're all predictably bursting with glee that a new risk to your treasured house price crash has thankfully been averted. Why the celebration if the SIPPS would have had no effect anyway?

Only a question, but I'm still bracing myself for the abuse...

Because....

Just because it wasn't going to have an upward effect when it was ON does not mean it wont have the opposite effect now it's OFF.

I.e. people who currently own property may not have been intending to buy more because of SIPP rules, but they may well fear that prices will drop because others wont be doing so, and they may rush to sell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every time I've glanced over this site I've seen you all working yourselves up into a frenzy over the "SIPPS myth", and how it must be "debunked" before the evil, plotting, hysterical, house-price-ramping media convince everyone of a new boom. Then suddenly, on the announcement that the rules are to change, you're all predictably bursting with glee that a new risk to your treasured house price crash has thankfully been averted. Why the celebration if the SIPPS would have had no effect anyway?

Only a question, but I'm still bracing myself for the abuse...

Some posters thought is would have a nil effect some thought it would provide a prop to keep the market distorted for a longer period.

Most thought it was a bad idea and an unfair tax break to the already wealthy, hence the general feeling of relief that it has been shelved.

I think your post is a bit of a simplistic and inflammatory review of what was actually posted on this site.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

fair point

Personally I always beleived in the crash whether or not SIPPS would come into the equation

I think most other posters were of the same opinion

but I guess this is hefty kick in the nuts for all those VI's who were trying to use SIPPS as a selling point or to reverse growing negative sentiment in the market. hence the unbridled glee we have seen here today. there really is no good reason not to wait anymore

from my point of view the real crunch will come once a REAL tightening of the money supply comes into effect (not the piecemeal measures we have seen so far)

SIPPS or no SIPPS this will be the catalyst to drive the market downwards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The psychological blow to the investment market is hard to calculate. With the market teetering and most VIs admitting things have slowed to a crawl the prospect of a sipp-induced spring bounce was seen as the best hope for continuing HPI. With that gone there is nothing left to give Bulls any short to medium term hope (especially in the light of Gordon's dire predictions for the economy when compared with the growth elsewhere).

Perception eventually becomes reality and the Sipp U-turn may well prove to be the psychological trigger to the pending HPC.

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some posters thought is would have a nil effect some thought it would provide a prop to keep the market distorted for a longer period.

Most thought it was a bad idea and an unfair tax break to the already wealthy, hence the general feeling of relief that it has been shelved.

I think your post is a bit of a simplistic and inflammatory review of what was actually posted on this site.

I disagree, think it was a fair point myself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Read the pinned thread. It's all about the mindset.

As for the debunk thread, as you have noticed, the name has been changed. The clue is in the title.

The Government have made an unexpected U-turn.

As a FTB this could be significant in easing the pressure off you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You think it's fair to stereotype posters on this site as hysterical?

Hysterical, not usually.

Obsessed, almost certainly.

Open to alternative viewpoints, rarely.

Mistaken, who knows?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm gleeing cos the VI's can't use this BullSh** to ramp up sentiment anymore or trying to scare FTBers to get on the market before SIPPS investors push hope away from them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is a fair point, but there are some of us, like me, who've always said SIPP's was going to have a big impact. I'm pleased theres been a back track on it , but now we have REIT's, so all in all no real change.

Edited by simon99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hysterical, not usually.

Obsessed, almost certainly.

Open to alternative viewpoints, rarely.

Mistaken, who knows?

I'd put my hands up to obsessed!

Possibly mistaken; the future is unknown.

I think that there are more than a few open to alternative view points.

It does the majority disservice if you define them by the fringe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(HPC bears) Open to alternative viewpoints, rarely.

One question: look back 18 months. Which is the alternative viewpoint : more HPI, or HPC?

That's okay, we accept your apology...

Edited by Sledgehead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every time I've glanced over this site I've seen you all working yourselves up into a frenzy over the "SIPPS myth", and how it must be "debunked" before the evil, plotting, hysterical, house-price-ramping media convince everyone of a new boom. Then suddenly, on the announcement that the rules are to change, you're all predictably bursting with glee that a new risk to your treasured house price crash has thankfully been averted. Why the celebration if the SIPPS would have had no effect anyway?

Only a question, but I'm still bracing myself for the abuse...

The economic foundation for SIPPs was no way going to stop the crash.

Now SIPPs have been snatched back the trigger has been pulled and the Sentiment of the Public will onset the crash early.

So my advide to anyone thinking of selling to realise what you have MEWed in real money is to dump your box on the market as soon as possible before next door beats you to it.

Otherwise it's NE for you and e decade of misery.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every time I've glanced over this site I've seen you all working yourselves up into a frenzy over the "SIPPS myth", and how it must be "debunked" before the evil, plotting, hysterical, house-price-ramping media convince everyone of a new boom. Then suddenly, on the announcement that the rules are to change, you're all predictably bursting with glee that a new risk to your treasured house price crash has thankfully been averted. Why the celebration if the SIPPS would have had no effect anyway?

Only a question, but I'm still bracing myself for the abuse...

Perfectly correct - from an investment viewpoint placing residential property into a Sipp was a really bad idea and professionally I for one would have had a great deal of difficulty justifying it should Compliance have queried my advice. However the fact that £5bn (apparently) had been earmarked for it combined with the ridiculous assumption that property always goes up suggests that normal investment criteria had gone out of the window.

The jubilation is based on the same principle as house prices have been pushed up - confidence. VIs pump up the market/ lenders overlend/prices rise/people buy more/remortgage or MEW/prices rise ad infinitum.

This virtuous circle (or Ponzi scheme as it is more accurately known) has been turning consistently more slowly over the last 2 years as prices have stagnated/sales take longer/gap between asking price and sale price widens/ etc.

Sipps were a further potential delaying tactic before the inevitable fall started to accelerate. Imagine you are on a rollercoaster and it has finally reached the top of the hill huffing and puffing moving almost imperceptibly. The market is poised tantalisingly but realistically there is/was only one way for this rollercoaster to go - down.

Sipps and their cruel appearance and disappearance is that tiny little bit of pressure required to send the rollercoaster hurtling at great speed towards that dunking through the log flume. The BTLs and the heavy MEWers are screaming loudest. In genuine fear.

The realist professional landlords took hats and oilskins. The rest of us are playing on the dodgems chatting up your girlfriend.

The Fox

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every time I've glanced over this site I've seen you all working yourselves up into a frenzy over the "SIPPS myth", and how it must be "debunked" before the evil, plotting, hysterical, house-price-ramping media convince everyone of a new boom. Then suddenly, on the announcement that the rules are to change, you're all predictably bursting with glee that a new risk to your treasured house price crash has thankfully been averted. Why the celebration if the SIPPS would have had no effect anyway?

Only a question, but I'm still bracing myself for the abuse...

SIPPS wouldn't have necessarily caused a boom in prices but obviously does encourage investment in property and more money thrown at the housing market is the last thing we need right now....In fact the government should be actively DIScouraging property investment ............without knee jerk reactions ....as a mass BTL sell off would actually increase homelessness in the shortrun.............

Increasing the supply of property through new building would have no effect in the short to medium term as it would take 20 years to significantly increase supply.....so other means are required......(tax regime?....Tenancy regs?.....)

Because of the start up costs involved there is no way less well off people could buy property as a sideline ..unlike with say shares and other investments you can't start off with £100 or £1000 or whatever so

SIPPS in the form of property would simply be a tax dodge for well-off people like the much-maligned stakeholder pension schemes..which were primarily aimed at the less well-off........

but as we know all the rich pay in the maximum £75?? a week for each member of their family including children and it's tax deductible.......the poor either can't afford to pay in or choose not to as building up savings or pensions simply denies them state benefits in retirement..

Edited by Michael

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi FTB_one_day,

I had two main worries about properties in SIPPs, they were;

1) The main people buying would be BTLers, who would buy small properties that (at a reasonable price) would be ideal for FTBers. This, IMO, would hold off a crash, when IMHO it has already been delayed long enough, and make the FTBer position much worse. This, justifiably, was the main concern of people on this site.

2) I think we may have found some people using their family home in a SIPP. This worried me as I don't think a lot of the people I talked to quite understood what this would mean. When you put anything in a SIPP, you effectively give up ownership. Therefore things such as selling it or making alterations to the place would require the permission of the 'owner'. I'm not sure how this particular issue would have effected the HPI, but it did concern some people.

So basically, I am glad they have been scrapped as I think they 'may' have further staved off a crash, and also, could have caused a problem of the same scale that we are now seeing with Endowments in later years. This could end up costing the goverment (or should I say 'tax payer') dearly.

LG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With all the "hang on a minute, you said it would not make a difference" (technically wrong: folks here said it would have a negligible UPWARD affect) I'm beginning to think we need a "hang-on-a-minute,-you-said-it-would-not-make-a-difference myth debunked" thread.

But in the meantime here's my sh!t

Oh b@llox, what the hell, I'm gonna post that thread...

Edited by Sledgehead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My thinking is that house prices are way overvalued. However prices haven't come down much so far as most sellers would rather hold out for what they think their house is worth than give up some of their capital gain.

Therefore the market has stagnated, rather than crashed.

What is needed is something to give a jolt. Once there is real momentum downwards then the crash will be unstoppable.

Prices will then go into freefall. Unfortunately for those that bought near the top they will end up with negative equity. Some will have their houses repossessed, forcing the market still lower. BTL landlords will try to escape the Gotterdammerung but most will be too late (I think the smart investors have already sold up). Some will realize the folly of property as an investment in the coming few years and will try to get out, even if it means accepting a loss. However there are many investors that got into BTL 3 or more years ago and can still escape with a small profit. As these investors cash in this will drive the market still lower.

History has shown that after every boom there is a bust where prices fall below historic norms. Myself I reckon we are due for a ~50% drop in prices.

The U-turn on SIPPs could just be necessary trigger to get everything rolling.

However if this turns out not to be the case then there are other possible triggers: increased interest rates, increased unemployment...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.