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Realistbear

Uk Property Market Looks Set For Modest Rebound

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/051206/323/fynft.html

"LONDON (AFX) - The UK property market looks set for a modest rebound in 2005 and over the next two years, the Council of Mortgage Lenders predicted.

The CML is now forecasting that house prices will rise by an annual rate of 4 pct this year, a substantial upgrade from the no change estimate made previously. Through 2006 and 2007, prices are seen rising by 2 pct respectively -- also upward revisions from the no change prediction made previously.

A lot of the buoyancy in the market will be the result of mortgaging activity, it said.

'Even though the number of property sales is expected to decline from 1.23 mln in 2004 to 970,000 this year and 920,000 in 2006 and 2007, the high level of remortgaging will ensure that gross lending remains buoyant,' CML said."

Can you spot the contradictions?

Clue: look at headline and then read the bit about "remortgaging." They expect property sales to decline yet see a rise in prices next year? Has the law of supply and deman suddenly been suspended?

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NOT AN UNBIASED FORECAST,

These are the HOPES of a party with a vested interest in seeing a firm market.

Anyone who would use this "forecast" as a reason to buy is a FOOL

More to the point, if this is the best case scenario that the CML can think up then this is a tacit admission that they expect real falls in 2006 and beyond

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Seen it b4.

I recall lots of news like this in 1990, from the so called experts no internet then.

" Property on the way up"

"Worst Over"

Then what happened "$HIT HIT THE FAN" Property dropped on average 30 % overall between then and 1995.

Have we found a vein of Gold under the country or something.

Whos buying ? and Why ?

Consumer Confidence is low, Retail Figures all time lows, Big Lay Offs in 2006, Property Priced Too High, For Sale Signs Everywhere, Empty Estate Agents, Estate Agents Going out of business, increase of repossessions, Average Day to sell a house increasing.

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/051206/323/fynft.html

'Even though the number of property sales is expected to decline from 1.23 mln in 2004 to 970,000 this year and 920,000 in 2006 and 2007, the high level of remortgaging will ensure that gross lending remains buoyant,' CML said."

Aren't those VERY grim figures for property sales?

I mean ACTUAL sales - after you have stripped out people shifting about their existing mortgages.

I think Savills recently estimated house sales this year will be 930,000 (don't remember if this was the EXACT figure but it was there or thereabouts), which it described as the lowest number since 1974.

Is the CML really saying that 2006 and 2007 will be even worse than 1974 (when interest rates were 25% or so, TWO general elections were held, the UK had a three-day week etc)?

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A little round up (6th December) of VI "desperate" headlines - after Browns' speech yesterday!

Well what do you expect?? ;)

House prices to pick up in 2006

This is Money

Economy robust after housing and oil shocks - Brown

Reuters

CML Predicts Two Per Cent Next Year

findaproperty.co

House sales tipped to boom next year

Evening Times, Scotland

Property market to strengthen in 2006

MyFinances.co.uk

Halifax reports rising house prices

The Times

Property market optimism rises

MyFinances.co.uk

Edited by erranta

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Is the CML really saying that 2006 and 2007 will be even worse than 1974 (when interest rates were 25% or so, TWO general elections were held, the UK had a three-day week etc)?

After Wilson`s election victory in 1974 interest rates averaged 12% and inflation was 16%. Heath presided over the highest HPI which peaked at 36% a year. During Wilson`s 2 year term HPI dropped to minus 13% with inflation running at 16%, 24.2%, and 16.5% . Callaghan`s 3 year term saw HPI average 4% a year with interest rates averaging 13% and inflation 13.4% at the time of his defeat in the 1979 election.

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After Wilson`s election victory in 1974 interest rates averaged 12% and inflation was 16%. Heath presided over the highest HPI which peaked at 36% a year. During Wilson`s 2 year term HPI dropped to minus 13% with inflation running at 16%, 24.2%, and 16.5% . Callaghan`s 3 year term saw HPI average 4% a year with interest rates averaging 13% and inflation 13.4% at the time of his defeat in the 1979 election.

I bow to your wisdom Charlie.

Nominal interest rates were indeed around 12-13% with annual inflation averaging around 15-16% (with zero/negative real interest rates)... it got worse in 1975.

All-in-all, it was a grim time... but there were still more houses actually getting sold in 1975 than in 2005!

And the CML is predicting the market is going into yet more of a shutdown?

Well, if they are right, people MIGHT be able to CLAIM their house hasn't fallen in value but I pity anyone ACTUALLY trying to sell. A Pyrrhic victory?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

All-in-all, it was a grim time... but there were still more houses actually getting sold in 1975 than in 2005!

To be honest most of the people I knew were on the move then. Strange times, most people appeared happy as if they did not have a care in the world, as far as they were concerned most jobs were for life and the only major redundancies in London were dockers at The Royal Docks which tranferred to Felixstowe as the new containerisation came in.

I sold my FTB two bed maisonette and bought a four bed detached house September 1975 moving in Easter 1976. Repayment was £116 per month at 11% climbing to £132 per month at 15%.

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smacks of the invincible black knight from the holy grail.

"tis but a flesh wound"

-your arms off..!!!

"ive had worse.."

"get back here you chicken...ill bite your legs off.."

Edited by right_freds_dead

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I was wondering what the first bit of spin after GBs pre-budget report would be.

Totally laughable. Extremely weak.

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To be honest most of the people I knew were on the move then. Strange times, most people appeared happy as if they did not have a care in the world, as far as they were concerned most jobs were for life and the only major redundancies in London were dockers at The Royal Docks which tranferred to Felixstowe as the new containerisation came in.

I sold my FTB two bed maisonette and bought a four bed detached house September 1975 moving in Easter 1976. Repayment was £116 per month at 11% climbing to £132 per month at 15%.

I'll bow to your wisdom again... I was a baby at the time.

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The always bullish homes-on-line.com says "Budget boost for homes . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "

Funnily enough they don't mention SIPPs

(on 30/11 they said "Pensions fears boost buy-to-let . . . . ." and on 15/9 they said "Buy-to-let market awaits pensions boost ")

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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