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Oliver Sutton

Halifax -0.4%

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Expected +0.5%

House prices in the three months to October were 0.8% higher than in the preceding three months. This was the third consecutive decline in the quarterly rate of increase and the smallest rise since December 2012. Annual price growth in the three months to October slowed to 8.8% from 9.6% in September.

Activity continues to decline with mortgage approvals in September falling for the third successive month to a 14 month low, whilst home sales are at their lowest level since October 2013. The associated weakening in demand has brought supply and demand into better ballance.

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Edited by Oliver Sutton

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Expected +0.5%

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Expected by whom ?

I've been expecting 2% drops and by now I should have a PhD in the housing market, what c**ts the BoE are and why politicians should be in Jail and replaced by primary school children, under 7.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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"House prices in the three months to October were 0.8% higher than in the preceding three months. This was the third consecutive decline in the quarterly rate of increase and the smallest rise since December 2012. Annual price growth in the three months to October slowed to 8.8% from 9.6% in September."

V.I., banker speaks with forked tongue.

I will translate.

House prices are collapsing.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Amazing the creation of low paid jobs isn't supporting house prices. Luckily I'm not a rocket scientist.

You'll never get an Economics teaching job in academia with an attitude like that.You'll scare the kids.

Edited by Sancho Panza

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Wait 'til George reads this over his Coco Pops.

Stamp duty holiday coming in 3... 2... 1...

I had a thought about how the MPs might react in the run up to the election.

My conclusion was...if they couldn't see the collapse coming in 2007 and pre-empt that and they think that 2007 prices are a nice level for house prices then they must be so arrogant/stupid/corrupt/out of touch that they wont see it this time.

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You'll never get an Economics teaching job in academia with an attitude like that.You'll scare the kids.

Yeah, it's not the low paid jobs that's the problems, it's the lack of affordable debt and government hand outs to support their landlords that's the issue.

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Yeah, it's not the low paid jobs that's the problems, it's the lack of affordable debt and government hand outs to support their landlords that's the issue.

Affordable debt. Very good classification actually.

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I had a thought about how the MPs might react in the run up to the election.

My conclusion was...if they couldn't see the collapse coming in 2007 and pre-empt that and they think that 2007 prices are a nice level for house prices then they must be so arrogant/stupid/corrupt/out of touch that they wont see it this time.

I think they will see it coming this time, for many reasons, but chiefly because they know damn well that the current bubble has only been achievable with govt props, low IR, trashed currency and QE.

The question is whether George thinks it has enough steam to get him over the election line, or whether he thinks another prop is needed. If the latter, then I wonder if he will have the guts to make it temporary and remove it after the GE, or whether to go balls deep for the long term. Past form suggests he would bottle it a couple of weeks after the GE.

Interesting times - I see Danny Alexander is now calling for oil price drops to be passed onto consumers, presumably so Georgie can whack the tax up on it again. Which suggests they are in reactive rather than proactive mode (has it ever been any different?).

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I think they will see it coming this time, for many reasons....

Yeah maybe, as you say maybe they will see it coming because it's the democratically elected ( for the public's benefits ) British government who are deliberately trying to push up house prices.

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BBC usual biased reporting, "rate of growth slows" over a three month period! What so they just cannot say house prices drop by x% and have to sugar coat it.

A turd dipped in sugar is still a turd.

Osborne and E.A. Dave might have done us all a favour, by pushing up prices in London and the S.E. so high above the 2007 bank collapsing bubble they have almost certainly guaranteed a much worse collapse and/or civil un-rest.

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NSA fall of greater than 0.8% and the lowest price figure since April. Quite a different story to the headline SA numbers, with this month's being the second highest figure this year.

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For sure the likes of Mr Daniel Alexander (LibDem) will be on the side of the consumer (fuel prices) in the last few months before the general election - and of course there's the Rochester and Strood by-election in 2 weeks time.

Edited by billybong

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I am not surprised, like the count says I'm surprised it isn't more.

We started looking at houses Saturday, agents are sat around doing nout. We viewed 10 on Saturday, agents all arranged to mee us at the time we wanted. Then the wife viewed 10 yesterday with 5 different agents!

We have had 3 agents trying to sall us 275k properties that the vendors will take £250k for and have only been on the market for a month - and IMO not badly priced for the area since prices haven't budged for 10 years (not that they are affordable to the average joe, as it's mainly retired here).

People know things are crumbling, even my father who have zero interest in property. He told me to wait until after the election as prices will be much cheaper. From my perspective he is somewhat a sheep following the script as I don't pollute his mind with the crap from this site.

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Osborne and E.A. Dave might have done us all a favour, by pushing up prices in London and the S.E. so high above the 2007 bank collapsing bubble they have almost certainly guaranteed a much worse collapse and/or civil un-rest.

I think you might be right there. What I've read on the Prime London thread suggests the lights have gone out quite suddenly. Let's hope it ripples outwards :)

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In North East Hampshire, a property came on as "price on admission".. I don't like this type of subterfuge. So I called the EA to see how high the kite was flying, and was told "Asking £550k, but they would likely take £500k".

That's two days after going on the market.

Still about £120k overvalued at £500k though IMHO.

I will wait this out for a few months until affordability = reality.

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In North East Hampshire, a property came on as "price on admission".. I don't like this type of subterfuge. So I called the EA to see how high the kite was flying, and was told "Asking £550k, but they would likely take £500k".

That's two days after going on the market.

Still about £120k overvalued at £500k though IMHO.

I will wait this out for a few months until affordability = reality.

Itll take years as opposed to a few months to see any kind of affordability.

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Getting back to normal then. The housing market, outside London, has been incredibly stagnant now for ten years...as the land registry pointed out it has actually flat lined for ten years in nominal terms outside London or something like a 30% correction in real terms.

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In 2004 when we saw price drops like this we were smiling. Then Mervyn cut int rates and boosted mortgage lending.

Now, mortgage rates are falling but of course Base cannot fall beyond 0.5%.

MMR cutting mortgage lending.

China slowing down.

It's coming. Whether it is now or yet a further year or two, qui sais? But it's coming. And IMHO it will last at least a decade. If #turningjapanese then 2 decades or longer ...

Edited by Killer Bunny

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In 2004 when we saw price drops like this we were smiling. Then Mervyn cut int rates and boosted mortgage lending.

Now, mortgage rates are falling but of course Base cannot fall beyond 0.5%.

MMR cutting mortgage lending.

China slowing down.

It's coming. Whether it is now or yet a further year or two, qui sais? But it's coming. And IMHO it will last at least a decade. If #turningjapanese then 2 decades or longer ...

Ive a lot of confidence in their ability to keep the plates spinning for a good while yet, especially with the central banks of the world colluding in handing over the QE baton to one another.

Carney is now claiming his genius for keeping rates at zero, he's only got another couple of years of his contract for him to get out of the game with his reputation in tact as he passes the shyt covered baton to some other bankers stooge.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-11-05/carney-s-low-rate-line-winning-amid-european-gloom-u-dot-k-dot-credit

Edited by Corruption

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In 2004 when we saw price drops like this we were smiling. Then Mervyn cut int rates and boosted mortgage lending.

Now, mortgage rates are falling but of course Base cannot fall beyond 0.5%.

MMR cutting mortgage lending.

China slowing down.

It's coming. Whether it is now or yet a further year or two, qui sais? But it's coming. And IMHO it will last at least a decade. If #turningjapanese then 2 decades or longer ...

well....they could...

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Can someone more statistically literate than me help interpret these figures?

The clickable regional map on the Halifax site shows prices rising significantly above 0.8% in the last quarter in all areas except the North.

There, prices fell by 2.3%. Everywhere else shows increases above the 0.8% quoted. East Anglia has the highest rise of 8.4%.

Is there a lag on these figures, or am I misinterpreting them?

Link here:

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/economic-insight/regional-house-prices/

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