gf3 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Deflation Cost deflation from falling oil prices is silently welcomed be central banks and government. It's asset deflation that they will not allow under any circumstances, hence all the delation rhetoric when cost inflation was soaring around 5% a few years ago. If anything it will give consumers more money to spend, boost consumer spending and employment. Yes I think rents may go up as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Oh, they have. Not as much as you'd like, but they have. I've been going through my mileage records, and I was filling up at £1.39/l unleaded last year (not a motorway service station). I've most recently filled up for £1.22/l As to the price of crude, I do wonder how much lower it can fall. It seems that OPEC, Saudi particularly, are pumping like crazy. Saudi are rumoured to be almost up to "surge" capacity, last seen when oil prices had their massive spike to $150. What their motiviation isn't clear? Perhaps, they are trying to starve out the shale oil producers? Perhaps, they've committed too much government expenditure predicated on high oil revenues, and are now faced with having to pump even faster into a soft market, just to make ends meet. Perhaps they're worried that oil-alternative technolgies are starting to appear (e.g. commercially viable electric cars) and are trying to make them as uneconomic as possible. More likely that they will use the cash to bribe their own citizens or bolster their defence force. They are probably keeping a close eye on what's happening up north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Deflation Cost deflation from falling oil prices is silently welcomed be central banks and government. It's asset deflation that they will not allow under any circumstances, hence all the delation rhetoric when cost inflation was soaring around 5% a few years ago. If anything it will give consumers more money to spend, boost consumer spending and employment. In the short term yes more money in consumer's pockets but they may just pay down debt or hoard cash if goods and services are likely to be cheaper in the future. The MPC are relaxed to deflation risks. Maybe they are expecting the pound to weaken. The Bank of Japan have made an aggressive move. I think the ECB is up this week. I have not read what China plans to combat deflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 It's going to $300, gold is going to the moon, hyperinflationary collapse dude!! Oh sorry, that was sooooo 2008 Oh come on where's your hpc spirit ? Surely you can find something in the "Oil Trumpet" that says we're going to run out of hydrocarbon resources in 5 years and from then on its all hitting each other over the head with sticks and rocks. My guess is that the price will continue to decrease as EOR kicks in big time outside the states in places like russia and the middle east and demand falters in China. Prices might be depressed for 10 years or so. The only thing I think realistically that may spike it in the short term is some major aggro kicking off in one of the more unstable large producers. Oh yes, and we won't run out of gas this winter (whatever happened to ruffles the guniea pig). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Oh, they have. Not as much as you'd like, but they have. I've been going through my mileage records, and I was filling up at £1.39/l unleaded last year (not a motorway service station). I've most recently filled up for £1.22/l As to the price of crude, I do wonder how much lower it can fall. It seems that OPEC, Saudi particularly, are pumping like crazy. Saudi are rumoured to be almost up to "surge" capacity, last seen when oil prices had their massive spike to $150. What their motiviation isn't clear? Perhaps, they are trying to starve out the shale oil producers? Perhaps, they've committed too much government expenditure predicated on high oil revenues, and are now faced with having to pump even faster into a soft market, just to make ends meet. Perhaps they're worried that oil-alternative technolgies are starting to appear (e.g. commercially viable electric cars) and are trying to make them as uneconomic as possible. A lot of it is political. Yanks are probably leaning on Saudi to bankrupt Putin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 A lot of it is political. Yanks are probably leaning on Saudi to bankrupt Putin. cant see that happening...theyll just pay the oilmen less... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Executive Sadman Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Denningers take on things... http://market-ticker.org/post=229562 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybernoid Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subspace Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Can the Americans protect their shale producers by slapping import tariffs on Saudi oil? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill D'arblay Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Does anyone have any views on what is going on with the oil price? Is it falling as a result of a slowdown / deflation in the global economy? Or is it more to do with a war between Saudi Arabia and the other producers in the Middle East, Russia and the US? Are the Saudis trying to put the US shale gas producers out of business? (Or is someone making a fortune from all the oil that the ISIS lot have nicked?). If it is the Saudi's driving down the price of oil then surely it is a game of brinkmanship to see who gives in first? I read that Saudi needs oil at 80 bucks a barrel whilst the US and Canadian shale producers need it nearer 100 bucks. Some are saying that, in the short-term, Saudi could sustain an oil price at the mid-60s mark, to even the low 60s, to try and break the US shale producers. Thoughts? Did you miss the news that Putin has just found more, easy, oil than all the Arabs put together? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Oh, they have. Not as much as you'd like, but they have. I've been going through my mileage records, and I was filling up at £1.39/l unleaded last year (not a motorway service station). I've most recently filled up for £1.22/l As to the price of crude, I do wonder how much lower it can fall. It seems that OPEC, Saudi particularly, are pumping like crazy. Saudi are rumoured to be almost up to "surge" capacity, last seen when oil prices had their massive spike to $150. What their motiviation isn't clear? Perhaps, they are trying to starve out the shale oil producers? Perhaps, they've committed too much government expenditure predicated on high oil revenues, and are now faced with having to pump even faster into a soft market, just to make ends meet. Perhaps they're worried that oil-alternative technolgies are starting to appear (e.g. commercially viable electric cars) and are trying to make them as uneconomic as possible. sure about that ? crude prices have nearly halved form their peak , i dont see petrol going less than £1 a litre do you ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 sure about that ? crude prices have nearly halved form their peak , i dont see petrol going less than £1 a litre do you ? No since about 80p is tax. I can see them hiking fuel tax as 'nobody will notice' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
house-down Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 No since about 80p is tax. I can see them hiking fuel tax as 'nobody will notice' Oil prices are down massively in London - Unleaded now at 120 and diesel at 124. Just a few months ago these were 130 / 135 so that's a 8% drop. What is interesting is the price of crude has come down much more substantially but this has been partly offset by the change in GBP / USD Weak oil prices generally indicate weak global demand but I think personally people are being a lot more energy cautious - I certainly drive a lot less then I used to and I enjoy petrol power as much as every one does Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Oil prices are down massively in London - Unleaded now at 120 and diesel at 124. Just a few months ago these were 130 / 135 so that's a 8% drop. What is interesting is the price of crude has come down much more substantially but this has been partly offset by the change in GBP / USD Weak oil prices generally indicate weak global demand but I think personally people are being a lot more energy cautious - I certainly drive a lot less then I used to and I enjoy petrol power as much as every one does lowest i have seen unleaded is 124 where is it 120 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I must admit I don;t pay much attention to petrol prices since my little 125 only takes £14 to fill up and lasts me a month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houses-do-my-head-in Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 my Iranian friend says oil is coming down because the West is now best buddies with Iran again. New apple stores opening in Iran over the last month or 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I bought £300s worth of Statoil shares 6 months ago. That's what did it. Love Auntie Cassandra. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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