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CrashIsUnderWay

Why The Only Way For Property Now Is Down

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We are getting constant bleating posts from trollish newbies along the lines of

* 'it hasnt crashed yet' or

* 'its not crashing where I live' or even my fave

* 'I have seen lots more sold boards than last year' blah blah

so I just thought it might be worth explaining one last time to these morons why:-

the crash IS underway, and why NOTHING anyone can do can stop it getting worse.

Perhaps they will then realise that they are simply wasting their time, and just make themselves look silly, doing nothing to 'address the obvious bias of this site' (hhahahahah!)

Why property MUST fall now

Here we go. Having seen rates of growth collapse from 22% plus to virtually zero in little over a year, even the most hardened property 'guru' must be having to dryclean the trousers every couple of hours. Next year brings the first unspinnable 'negative growth' stories, as there is now too much momentum built up on the downside for it to turn around before going negative. Why has this happened?

An incontrovertible law of self-modifying systems. To avoid boring those numpty BTL 'barons' and pathetic estate agents reading this, who have only the one brain cell, and wouldn't understand anyway, I'll use single syllables and cut the science.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS FREE MONEY.

Never was, never will be.

Even 'EASY MONEY' doesn't last long, because self referencing systems tend to adjust to reach equilibrium. If they didn't, for example, everyone could be a trillionaire in the stock market with no effort. The reason why this is impossible is that even newly discovered 'secrets' or 'systems' that appear to offer 'free money' or 'easy money', once they are introduced into the system, have the effect of causing the system to adjust itself so that these methods no longer work because...

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS FREE MONEY

A classic stock market example would be the 'Turtle Trading method', once hailed as the 'easy money' route to effortless profits in stocks. Nowadays, of course, professional traders make 'turtle soup' out of any newbie stupid enough to actually try it. I.e. the market adjusted to close out the loophole that appeared to offer 'free money'.

Is the house market 'different' in some way from every other market / self-adjusting system? No. It's just slower to move or adjust. Over the last decade, a lot of money has been made (and some smarties have even converted these gains into actual cash!) from property. While appearing to be a 'one way street', i.e. an opportunity on which one can't lose, what has actually been happening is that smart traders have been extracting money from the less smart, which is, after all, what every market is for.

Was it actually 'Free Money'? No. It may have been 'Easy Money' for a while, but as with all self-referencing systems, the feedback loops are undeniable, and equilibrium, once upset, will re-assert itself. As more and more people jumped in, and bid each other up again and again, in pursuit of this supposed 'easy money', it actually became less and less 'easy'.

Until now. When it is very hard money indeed as any BTL 'baron' will admit (gosh - cashflow a bit tight. Thank god for those 0% interest cards! Ooooopppsss... Well SIPPS will save us!!! Oooopppppssss!!!)

So where does this leave us? The market is doing what markets do, and using efficiency to punish the stupid - i.e. those who STILL think there is free money around. The old ocean-going tanker turned last year, and being so big, there are still suckers at the stern who haven't noticed. They will, too late of course ('Er... weren't we supposed to be heading INTO the sunset???'). Can it spin again and resume an upward course? No. It's too big, and has too much momentum. Stocks move in minutes, or even seconds. House sell in MONTHS or even YEARS. Expect the crash to take 3 or 4 years at least (worst case scenario - a decade - death by a thousand cuts for any BTL landlord who bought after 2001!)

For the very last time...

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS FREE MONEY

Just naive / silly / dumb people who think otherwise.

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We are getting constant bleating posts from trollish newbies along the lines of

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS FREE MONEY

Just naive / silly / dumb people who think otherwise.

Yep. Excellent.

And just a reminder that the profits made at the top are coming in from the bottom. When those at the bottom (FTB) cannot and will not pay the profits of those further up, the whole game stops.

Thousands of BTL's and ordinary buyers bought at the top of the market a year ago, hoping the fantasy would last forever. No amount of spin or denial can alter the fact that the party is over, finished, done for and dead.

It's all downhill now and thank goodness for that.

VP

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Why property MUST fall now

It is a quoted article from the link to mortgage/down.com

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Personally I thought it was the usual long winded BS spat out by CIUW. ....yawn.....

I've been looking at the prices of properties that have changed hands more than once in the last five years using the LR figures. From what I can tell, prices are still moving upwards, albeit at a slower pace. And even slower in London.

However, it's very difficult to determine the statistical relevance of these properties. Many of them, I suspect, have been do-er up-ers "flipped" for quick profit.

I might post my findings if people are interested.

Edited by the_duke_of_hazzard

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CIUW - you had me going there for a minute.

Thought you had put that post together yourself. Then followed the link and realised you just copied it.

18 months into the impossible soft landing ......... I think on balance, the soft landing will keep going for at least another 12 months. Just can't see anything on the immediate horizon to ***** this bubble !

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It is a quoted article from the link to mortgage/down.com

and the style is strikingly similar to CIUWs own. (note that the website takes contributions)

CIUW is something of a seer though IMO :)

Edited by Fancypants

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I believe that a correction in property prices is inevitable at some point but you do ignore some things in your argument.

Not everyone is a fool. Many homeowners are not as exposed as you believe and have taken the equity made from each purchase up the chain so that even with rising prices the mortgage on the last property bought is not excessive

For the duration of this site we have been told that the market will collapse - it's just around the corner. However during this time the market has continued to defy the expectations of economists and has continued to rise. Whilst this has slowed considerably I believe it’s too early to call any crash yet, as such I am open to alternative viewpoints.

Basically at the moment no one knows what is going on and the key factors for me are debt and interest rates.

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All sounds a bit aggressive to me. I am a bear. I want a severe crash and logically I have been expecting it since 2002. But it really is not happening round my way (North London) yet, although I still think it should, so when people tell you their experience in a particular area, who are you to say they are wrong? Unless you happen to me my next door neighbour, I really doubt you are better qualified to judge the state of my local market... or am I just a troll?

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From what I can tell, prices are still moving upwards, albeit at a slower pace. And even slower in London.

Then your DNS server needs fixing. As www.rightmove.co.uk for my region of London shows nothing but falling prices (and even then most still aren't selling...) Maybe your browser is resolving to a parallel universe?

Nomadd

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Then your DNS server needs fixing. As www.rightmove.co.uk for my region of London shows nothing but falling prices (and even then most still aren't selling...) Maybe your browser is resolving to a parallel universe?

Nomadd

Thanks for that. I'm not talking about viewing a website with asking prices, I'm talking about analysis of the LR figures on properties actually sold.

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Thanks for that. I'm not talking about viewing a website with asking prices, I'm talking about analysis of the LR figures on properties actually sold.

Don't waste your breath ... they only want to hear the same mantra. I have also seen the same in my neck of the woods. Very slow but with no significant falls.

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Yep. Excellent.

And just a reminder that the profits made at the top are coming in from the bottom. When those at the bottom (FTB) cannot and will not pay the profits of those further up, the whole game stops.

Thousands of BTL's and ordinary buyers bought at the top of the market a year ago, hoping the fantasy would last forever. No amount of spin or denial can alter the fact that the party is over, finished, done for and dead.

It's all downhill now and thank goodness for that.

VP

And I bet you like the other rent boys have been saying exactly that for the last 2 years. :lol:

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Guest Fiddlesticks

I've been looking at the prices of properties that have changed hands more than once in the last five years using the LR figures. From what I can tell, prices are still moving upwards, albeit at a slower pace. And even slower in London.

However, it's very difficult to determine the statistical relevance of these properties. Many of them, I suspect, have been do-er up-ers "flipped" for quick profit.

I might post my findings if people are interested.

I'd be very interested to see your findings Duke. I've tried to do what you're describing myself, but there's no easy way to find properties which have changed hands more than once. Did you just scout around the Land Reg site manually?

Incidentally I'd agree with your perception of the London market. Prices where I live (Holloway) seem to me to have been at a virtual standstill for two to three years. I think there's some upward movement, but it's barely discernable.

Fiddlesticks

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Incidentally I'd agree with your perception of the London market. Prices where I live (Holloway) seem to me to have been at a virtual standstill for two to three years. I think there's some upward movement, but it's barely discernable.

Fiddlesticks

What you are describing, will in due course be used as evidence of a crash. In fact flat lining, is a crash to most of the nutters on here.

In the real world where you clearly live, prices are static - its the same where I live in Yorkshire according to LR figures.

If you post anything else other than total adherence, then you will be dubbed an evil relation of the devil himself.

:D

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especially if you don't bother to back up your claim, and pepper your sad little posts with 'smilies'.

Rather than multiple exclamation marks and block capitals?

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CIUW - you had me going there for a minute.

Thought you had put that post together yourself. Then followed the link and realised you just copied it.

It was written largely in English (albeit gratingly annoying English) which ought to have given the game away.

Edited by BoredTrainBuilder

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Guest Fiddlesticks

especially if you don't bother to back up your claim, and pepper your sad little posts with 'smilies'.

From what I see of this board, if I referred to ANY of the several indices (which in the outside world be be though of as respectable) that would back up my claim of a flat/slowly-rising market here for years they would be scoffed at as vested interests! The fact that I can't find a single index, reliable or otherwise, that shows anything else probably doesn't help me either.

As this is likely to be deemed a sad post I think I'll pepper it with a smiley ;)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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