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Trampa501

Gen Election Scenarios To Trigger A Hpc

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I'll list first the scenarios where the PTB can keep going with the same-old, same-old

Tory + LibDem coalition - Probability? Very unlikely

Tory + Ulster MPs coalition - Probability? Can the Tories win enough seats?

----------- however

Lab win (or in coalition) resulting in mansion tax that scares away foreign investors

Tory+UKIP coalition, resulting in anti-foreigner laws that scare away foreign investors

UKIP win resulting in anti-foreigner laws that scare away foreign investors - still extremely unlikely

The question is, which scenario will pan out?

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'Grand coalition' Tory and Lab looking more likely. No joke. Look at Germany.

You can have 50/1 at Ladbrokes....

Post-election government
Labour Majority
5/2
Conservative Majority
4/1
Lab/Lib Dems coalition
5/1
Cons/Lib Dems coalition
5/1
Labour minority government
7/1
Conservative minority government
8/1
Cons/UKIP coalition
14/1
Labour/SNP coalition
20/1
Conservative/Labour coalition
50/1
Labour/UKIP coalition
66/1

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The UKIP and SNP development are interesting, but I think Labour will have enough to limp over the line with a small majority.

The economy will be head into recession (the last one which we haven't really got out of started in 2008, so we are due for one). Labour won't cope well with the recession, the public will riot when they realise Labours promises were lies, the markets will panic, then we will have the mother of all house price crashes.

Sound realistic?

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Given that...

1 in 4 adults are tribal Labour voters who would vote for a turd with a red rosette on it,

1 in 4 adults are tribal Conservative voters who would vote for a turd with a blue rosette on it, and

MPs are elected by first past the post and each of these parties' tribal voters are geographically concentrated (Labour in former industrial cities, Conservative in rural areas) resulting in a large number of safe seats for each party

...the 2015-2020 government is guaranteed to be some blend of Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem. Grant Shapps is right, the next prime minister will be either David Cameron or Ed Miliband. That is the result the system is designed to produce.

The main lesson of the last 17 years of British politics is that there is no real difference between these three parties. Therefore the outcome of the next general election is completely immaterial as the same policies will be implemented no matter which combination of them gets to sit on the government benches.

After another decade of this a few million of the tribal voters will have gone to the great polling booth in the sky and general elections might start to matter again. Until then it'll just be a question of which colour tie the Oxford PPE grads are wearing this time round.

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'Grand coalition' Tory and Lab looking more likely. No joke. Look at Germany.

not a chance.

labour going hard left to appeal to scottish voters, who see snp as genuine hard left.(knowing full well they can't do jack sh1t without 40-50 solid labour seats in scotland)

alienates the rest of england..which is turning right....tories can only save this by dumping "neville" cameron and going for a more traditional centre-right conservative to combat UKIP..other wise UKIP mop up south of the border...leaving something like:

Conservative: 250

Labour : 200

UKIP: 70

SNP:50

LibDem: 20

UDP:15

SDLP:10

Sinn fein: 5

Plaid Cwmry:5

Other: 20

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The UKIP and SNP development are interesting, but I think Labour will have enough to limp over the line with a small majority.

The economy will be head into recession (the last one which we haven't really got out of started in 2008, so we are due for one). Labour won't cope well with the recession, the public will riot when they realise Labours promises were lies, the markets will panic, then we will have the mother of all house price crashes.

Sound realistic?

Possibly. But won't their proposed mansion tax bring about a change in market sentiment even before the election?

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You can have 50/1 at Ladbrokes....

Post-election government
Labour Majority
5/2
Conservative Majority
4/1
Lab/Lib Dems coalition
5/1
Cons/Lib Dems coalition
5/1
Labour minority government
7/1
Conservative minority government
8/1
Cons/UKIP coalition
14/1
Labour/SNP coalition
20/1
Conservative/Labour coalition
50/1
Labour/UKIP coalition
66/1

I'll take tory/UKIP coalition at those odds.

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UKIP will only win one seat at the next election Claxton.

At the moment I think most likely result is Labour just missing out on a majority and going it alone.

Id bet theyll win more than 10.

Looks a if Alistair Darlings got a job at the EU as he's leaving the sinking ship that is the Labour party.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11204402/Alistair-Darling-to-stand-down-as-MP-at-general-election.html

Would like to say i wish him well for the future but i dont.

Edited by Corruption

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Possibly. But won't their proposed mansion tax bring about a change in market sentiment even before the election?

Maybe that's Labour's way of bringing about a HPC without actually having to introduce policies. Just the threat of a "Mansion Tax" can scare the market in the same way that the threat of Help to Buy pushing up prices in London did just that (even though HTB hasn't been used much in London). One thing is for sure, the Mansion Tax is going to have to be rethought as if house prices drop, they will not collect the £2 billion or whatever figure they need from the Mansion Tax (and will probably lower it once in imo).

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Seriously, why are people in this thread talking as if any of the parties will actually implement their manifestos? IMO, Labour will not introduce a mansion tax. Millipede has no backbone and won't have the balls to do it once there's a London media-induced uproar. What is surely guaranteed is that all parties (including UKIP) will do everything they can to prop up house pricess and indeed push them higher. The only cause of a HPC will be external, but you can bet that the government of the day will QE us to hell to save the banks and house prices.

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Seriously, why are people in this thread talking as if any of the parties will actually implement their manifestos? IMO, Labour will not introduce a mansion tax. Millipede has no backbone and won't have the balls to do it once there's a London media-induced uproar. What is surely guaranteed is that all parties (including UKIP) will do everything they can to prop up house pricess and indeed push them higher. The only cause of a HPC will be external, but you can bet that the government of the day will QE us to hell to save the banks and house prices.

This thread isnt about anyones manifesto.

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The UKIP and SNP development are interesting, but I think Labour will have enough to limp over the line with a small majority.

The economy will be head into recession (the last one which we haven't really got out of started in 2008, so we are due for one). Labour won't cope well with the recession, the public will riot when they realise Labours promises were lies, the markets will panic, then we will have the mother of all house price crashes.

Sound realistic?

LABOUR CANNOT POSSIBLY GET A MAJORITY. WITHOUT A GOOD NUMBER OF SCOTTISH MPS LABOUR HAVE ONLY ONCE POLLED ENOUGH TO WIN - THAT WAS THE ORIGINAL BLAIR LANDSLIDE OF 1997. THE ADVENT OF UKIP RAISES A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT LABOUR AND TORIES WILL LOSE SEATS TO TGEM - Why? BECAUSE ONCE PEOPLE SEE NO ONE WILL WIN, TGEY WILL CEASE TO VOTE TO 'KEEP OUT LABOUR" OR " KEEP OUT TGE TORIES". NO, THEY WILL VOTE IN WILDLY DIFFERENT WAYS - SNP & UKIP WILL GET A GOOD NUMBER EACH. MOST LIKELY OUTCONE IS TORY/UKIP PACT, WITH EU REFERENDUM.

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We have two shocking main parties so I think they are playing into SNP and UKIP hands...should suit a few members on here.

Cameron is like a petulant kid, wont pay the 1.7 billion EU excess sub and the German chancellor, Merkel, has basically told him to f**k off then. Meanwhile UK break up will also follow Camerons' EU exit so good for Europhile SNP. Basically we are doing well but Cameron is doing his damdest to crash the pound, crash the FTSE 100 and crash the housing market come May...all good for most on here then even if Cameron is behaving like a complete suicidal c%%t.

Then we have a complete goon in charge of Labour, the kid that would get picked last for your team in the playground...you really couldn't make it up. God knows what the unions were thinking of other than bloody minded left wing self indulgence

Edited by crashmonitor

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UKIP reached the tipping point. They will hold the balance of power with (probably) the Tories.

There are many people, like me, who do not care for UKIP but will be voting for them anyway to disrupt the Westminster criminal cartel.

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UKIP reached the tipping point. They will hold the balance of power with (probably) the Tories.

There are many people, like me, who do not care for UKIP but will be voting for them anyway to disrupt the Westminster criminal cartel.

I think you are right..SNP will wipe out Labour in Scotland. Cameron will go with his EU vote get the result he doesn't really want and will have to exit. Meanwhile UK plc will crash, the UK will implode with Scotland leaving after voting to stay in Europe and we will get the biggest black swan in history. All brought on by Cameron...but good for many on here.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Guest UK Debt Slave

Basically, the elite will do ANYTHING to stay in power

So whilst a Con/Lab coalition seems unlikely, it is still a possibility if UKIP's support continues to rise exponentially in the next few months.

We pretty much live in a one party state now. The Fabians control all 3 main political parties, the banking system and all the institutions of state.

Instead of the communist revolution being a bottom up revolution from the proletariat, the Fabians have created a top down revolution and they have achieved it by subverting all agencies of the state and the capitalist system with their placemen and conspirators.

An excellent series of articles here:

http://www.eurocanadian.ca/2014/06/the-socialist-capitalist-alliance.html

http://www.eurocanadian.ca/2014/06/the-socialist-capitalist-alliance_26.html

http://www.eurocanadian.ca/2014/07/the-socialist-capitalist-alliance.html

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I think you are right..SNP will wipe out Labour in Scotland. Cameron will go with his EU vote get the result he doesn't really want and will have to exit. Meanwhile UK plc will crash, the UK will implode with Scotland leaving after voting to stay in Europe and we will get the biggest black swan in history. All brought on by Cameron...but good for many on here.

After years of waiting hoping for houses to become affordable again, I'm no longer certain that I want to live in this country much longer...

Edited by LC1

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So if it's to be a Con/Lab coalition, who would have the next largest number of seats to form the official opposition - the SNP?

There will only be England, wales and NI left so SNP wouldn't figure post election......Merkel wants us to f%%k off already. A Uk exit is basically the end of the Union from Europhile Scotland.

I guess Cameron has already started down the path of destruction even before the General election.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/auf-wiedersehen-britain-merkel-ready-to-cast-uk-adrift-over-migrant-quotas-9834484.html

Edited by crashmonitor

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I'll list first the scenarios where the PTB can keep going with the same-old, same-old

Tory + LibDem coalition - Probability? Very unlikely

Tory + Ulster MPs coalition - Probability? Can the Tories win enough seats?

----------- however

Lab win (or in coalition) resulting in mansion tax that scares away foreign investors

Tory+UKIP coalition, resulting in anti-foreigner laws that scare away foreign investors

UKIP win resulting in anti-foreigner laws that scare away foreign investors - still extremely unlikely

The question is, which scenario will pan out?

The crash started in 2007 and is ongoing. Do you mean the trigger for the next set of nominal falls ?

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From the independent link


Yesterday there were signs that the German warning may have been heeded by Mr Cameron. The Sunday Times reported that the Prime Minister was looking at ways to stretch existing EU rules “to their limits” rather than insist on measures that would require a treaty change.

You mean to say that he hasn't already been through that excercise already when he was claiming to reduce numbers to 10,000 before the general election and more recently setting a "target" of 100,000 (last year the number was 243.000 and climbing if the current trend since 2012 persists).

How many times since the 2010 general election has he said that the rules don't permit the UK to limit the numbers and now he's going to "stretch the rules" but this time "to their limits".

He's so full of it. Are people going to be taken in by him yet again but it also shows how much NuLabour sold the UK down the river during their years in power.

Edited by billybong

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I expect the two Lab' and Con' core blocks will come in at 3x% votes. Whether that means it's technically easier for Lab' to form a government I am not sure. I have not looked at the betting detail but presumably it will be like last time with deals hammered out behind closed doors.

A small Lab majority doesn't seem like a stable government. Also on Con' side both Boris and Osbourne have ambitions. So again I can't see stability there.

Edited by Ash4781

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