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Trampa501

Express Still Pushing Their "coldest Winter In 100 Years" Prediction

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Could they be right, for once? (as per the stopped clock...)

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/528643/Winter-2014-weather-warning-snow-arctic-freezing-temperatures-forecast

Looking at air flow in the upper atmosphere to produce an index called the October Pattern Index (OPI ) experts have said everything points towards a negative Arctic Oscillation this winter.

The resulting weak jet stream, which usually holds the cold at bay over the North Pole, will give way to a blast of freezing air which will sweep across the UK.

Experts expect this by the middle of November with snowstorms and numbing Arctic gales set to wreak havoc at airports and on the country’s transport systems.

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What about a newspaper article, about "the most desperate newspaper article in 100 years"?

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I saw an express headline some shared on the book face the other day. Very similar worst winter for a thousand years everyone to die etc etc.

Everyone commented about how terrible it sounded and worried they where.

Until someone realised it was last years headline... And we know how cold last year was!

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Until someone realised it was last years headline... And we know how cold last year was!

Indeed !

http://www.itv.com/news/granada/2013-10-13/the-met-office-responds-to-headlines-warning-of-worst-winter-in-decades/

Once again it is the season for speculation and big headlines regarding what the weather will do over the winter period. The front page of the Daily Express (Saturday 12th October) claims: ‘Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November’.

We saw similar headlines last year and instead winter 12/13 ended up being only the 43rd coldest on record with an average temperature of 3.3C and flooding until the turn of the year.

What the Daily Express has failed to explain to it’s readers is that there is absolutely no certainty about what weather the UK will see over the winter period. The science simply does not exist to make detailed, long-term forecasts for temperature and snowfall even for the end of November, let alone for the winter period, which does not officially start until 1 December.

31st OCTOBER 2013

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We had hail in Swansea last night the likes of which I have not seen and heard in the UK before. All my neighbours were looking out of their windows at it. Enormous downpour of some quite, for the UK, sizeable hailstones.

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Guest UK Debt Slave

Other Daily Express headlines:

HOUSE PRICES TO SOAR!!!!

MADELEINE MCCAAN SEEN ALIVE!!!

LORD LUCAN LIVING IN BRAZIL!!!

LADY DI MURDERED BY SAS!!!

A cretinous newspaper for cretins

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Well winter is done and it is remarkable for being consistently average. Certainly the most average winter I remember for years.

That's backed up by the stats.......

December 4.4 c (0.5 above average)

January 3.7c (0.1 above average)

February 3.7 c (estimated from Nottingham stats (linked) Met office not yet published UK, probably 0.1 below average)

Every month pretty close....no remarkable warm spells or cold spells. These Nottingham stats are telling for Feb...coldest a mere -2c, but only one day in double figures. Remarkably average throughout.....

http://uk.weather.com/weather/almanacMonthly/Nottingham+NGM+United+Kingdom+UKXX0104:1:UK

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Won't stop them trotting it out again next year. They'll get it right eventually by chance (keep going for long enough and they're almost certain to be right eventually) and crow about how great their predictions were.

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Let's wait until October, when this "news" can be published again! Althought I do not live in Massachusets!

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In my area I've seen crocuses and buttercups flowering. Seems early to me?

Crocuses are out in my garden. Buttercups? Nah surely not. Might be something else that looks like them.

Hail and snow here today.

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Sunny but blowing a gale here. Lots of crocuses out, and a few daffodils, masses more nearly there.

Just off to Kew to see the crocus carpet. I think I read that they planted two million. At any rate, it was spectacular last year.

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Crocuses out, not seen any daffodils yet though. Some plants in the garden starting to grow again. Something that gets covered in flowers already has a few appearing on it (they don't last long and I didn't think that they normally came out until April, but I may just be remembering wrong).

As for winter I'd call this one entirely normal.

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Goes to show average doesn't bring on spring....not much sign in my area...trees pretty dormant. Lacking a few warm days in February.

Average temperatures are based upon a cold period in the UK stats - I think it's 1960 to 1990.

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Average temperatures are based upon a cold period in the UK stats - I think it's 1960 to 1990.

Met Office now use 1981-2010.

December/ January came in marginally above average. I reckon February will come in pretty close to average or even slightly below.

Their summary to the end of January.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/winter

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