Scottish Labour Faces Being Wiped Out By Snp At General Election, Poll Shows

[Sancho Panza]

Guardian 30/10/14

'His remarks came as a new poll by Ipsos Mori for STV showed that a record 52% of Scottish voters would vote SNP if there were an immediate general election, implying the SNP would win 54 Westminster seats – a nine-fold increase on the six seats it currently holds.

Carried out in part after Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont’s sudden resignation last Friday, the poll put Labour at just 23% – its lowest figure in over six years, with the Tories cut to 10% and the Lib Dems down to 6%, tying with the Scottish Green party.

The poll will deeply alarm Ed Miliband, the UK Labour leader, who arrived in Glasgow on Thursday for the Scottish party’s annual fundraising dinner, which comes during its most bruising period since Alex Salmond’s landslide Holyrood election victory in 2011.

Losing scores of crucial Scottish Labour seats would be a potentially fatal blow to Miliband’s hopes of winning an overall majority at Westminster, with polls suggesting Labour and the Tories are neck and neck.

Speaking before he arrived in Glasgow, Miliband admitted that he knew Labour had to “reach out to Scotland” and ask the hundreds of thousands of Labour voters who backed independence to “come home”.

He told the Daily Record that the leadership election was Labour’s chance to renew itself: “It is Labour’s mission to show the people of Scotland in the next seven months that we can be that change,” he said.

The poll implies that Scottish voters have been deeply disillusioned with Labour, only a month after the party successfully spearheaded the no campaign’s victory in the Scottish independence referendum.

Senior Labour MPs privately blame Lamont for showing poor, lacklustre leadership both during and immediately after the referendum, failing to capitalise on the no camp’s victory and allowing the SNP to seize the agenda.

Murphy, currently shadow international development secretary at Westminster, told the Guardian he also wanted the Scottish party to be given far more operational and political autonomy from the UK party – signalling he expects Miliband to allow him far freer rein to set policy.

It is understood Murphy wants the Scottish party to have greater freedom to raise and spend its own money, attracting its own donors: its budget is currently controlled and set at London HQ. Murphy and Miliband spoke earlier this week, before he finally confirmed his leadership bid.

He wanted to see “more devolution firstly for the Scottish party, more autonomy for the Scottish party, raising more of its own money, paying more of its own bills and taking greater responsibility”.

The MP for East Renfrewshire for 17 years, Murphy is also under pressure to quickly resign from the Commons and find a safe Holyrood seat to allow him to lead from within the Scottish parliament.

Some senior colleagues believe that a Labour MSP who plans to retire in May 2016 from a safe Labour seat could be persuaded to stand down earlier and allow a byelection to take place on the same day as the general election in 2015.

Murphy confirmed he wanted to stand for Holyrood “at the latest, or hopefully sooner”, but insisted he had not identified any seats or was pushing for a byelection. “I’m going to do these things one contest at a time,” he told the Guardian.

“I think it would be arrogant on the first day of a leadership contest in which there are three candidates for me to start picking and choosing Scottish parliamentary constituencies to go and stand in.”'

[Sancho Panza]

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/10/30/snp-take-29-lead-over-lab-in-new-scottish-poll-from-ipsos-mori/

'Electoral Calculus has LAB down to just 4 Scots MPs if it votes at GE15 as in today's Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll.'

[pl1]

Labour took Scotland for granted for decades. The winds of political change are blowing throughout the whole of the UK.

[Steppenpig]

The together lot said they were going to start taking scotland seriously. How about moving parliament to Scotland. We should start a petition.

[Corruption]

SNP wipe out the Labour Vote in Scotland,UKIP take a huge chunk of the vote in England, LimpDums wiped out all leading to extreme uncertainty which is something the markets dont like ... a significant step towards a HPC imho.

[Snugglybear]

Oh, dear, we'll have to go all Danish or Belgian.

[The Knimbies who say No]

A fascinating edge to the election. Lib-Dem losses throughout the UK are expected to be split roughly equally between Tories and Labour, so it comes down to whether the Tories can protect their sub-50 seat advantage over Labour. UKIP hitting Tories (to Labour's advantage) in England, but this possible edge in Scotland.

[thecrashingisles]

A fascinating edge to the election. Lib-Dem losses throughout the UK are expected to be split roughly equally between Tories and Labour, so it comes down to whether the Tories can protect their sub-50 seat advantage over Labour. UKIP hitting Tories (to Labour's advantage) in England, but this possible edge in Scotland.

If Tories vote tactically for UKIP in Labour seats then we might see some very interesting results with Labour not safe anywhere.

[lovelyhead]

"Scottish Labour" are a complete joke. Lamont moaning that Scottish Labour is basically run from London. The irony.

And now Murphy has thrown his hat into the ring to be the new Labour "leader" in Scotland. He isn't even an MSP but an UK MP. All this and Milliband is calling for previous Labour voters that also voted YES in the referendum to "Come home". The sheer arrogance. Labour are a complete shambles.

That 45% is increasing by the day.

[The Knimbies who say No]

If Tories vote tactically for UKIP in Labour seats then we might see some very interesting results with Labour not safe anywhere.

Lord Ashcroft's polling makes good reading, and he has found that in Con-Lab marginals, the UKIP effect hits the blues. He is progressively polling at a constituency level moving up the majority-sorted list of marginals. He hopes to identify a 'bite point', where the cons start holding seats. He has polled up to (iirc) majorities of 2300 ish and has not found it yet.

[thecrashingisles]

Lord Ashcroft's polling makes good reading, and he has found that in Con-Lab marginals, the UKIP effect hits the blues. He is progressively polling at a constituency level moving up the majority-sorted list of marginals. He hopes to identify a 'bite point', where the cons start holding seats. He has polled up to (iirc) majorities of 2300 ish and has not found it yet.

I'm thinking more of seats like Heywood where a few Tory tactical votes for UKIP could have taken the seat from Labour.

[geezer466]

SNP wipe out the Labour Vote in Scotland,UKIP take a huge chunk of the vote in England, LimpDums wiped out all leading to extreme uncertainty which is something the markets dont like ... a significant step towards a HPC imho.

What's not to like.......

I bet more than a few property owners would take a HPC as collateral damage to wrestle power away for them cosy LibLabCon cartel.......

[stormymonday_2011]

No more than the Parliamentary Labour Party deserve to be honest.

The have not believed in anything but getting elected for years and they have shamelessly shagged over their white working class voters while pursuing their Guardianista multi cultural agenda.

Labour's position on Europe takes the biscuit as they are essentially saying that it is a great idea to stay in an organisation whose purpose is to take money from poor people in the richer European countries and give it to the rich people in the poorer ones Quite why Labour supports this system of quasi feudal system of wealth redistribution to landowners is beyond me.

Maybe Miliband should read Michael Foot's 1983 General Election manifesto that argued for the UK to leave the then EEC. He might find a few ideas there whose time has come. At least Foot actually had political ambitions that extended beyond just getting into office.

Edited October 30, 2014 by stormymonday_2011

[geezer466]

IIRC, the same poll predicted 49 UKIP MPs and the extinction of the Parliamentary Liberal Democrat party. Looks like we're headed for a Tory/UKIP coalition. It'll make a change to see both sides arguing that they're not right wing enough.

On the plus side, we'll be out of the EU whether Dave likes it or not. The 2 billion Euros recently demanded will be paid in 1 cent coins delivered to Brussels using RAF cluster bombs. Being Gordon Brown will become a criminal offence. Fags will be down to 10 bob a packet.

Or, it could be a crap poll and we'll be in for another 5 years of Nick Clegg trying to show everybody that he doesn't make the brews at cabinet meetings.

[Executive Sadman]

I don't know why political parties, those same parties that procrastinate about the evils of monopolistic behaviour and cartels in any other area seem to think they have a right to govern in perpetuity. Labour has been around 100 years, the tories even longer.

They are rotten, entrenched, inflexible and part of the problem.

I hope the SNP get their 50 seats and the UKIP their 50 seats. The red and blues need to accept change means they too will in time vanish.

[Executive Sadman]

IIRC, the same poll predicted 49 UKIP MPs and the extinction of the Parliamentary Liberal Democrat party. Looks like we're headed for a Tory/UKIP coalition. It'll make a change to see both sides arguing that they're not right wing enough.

On the plus side, we'll be out of the EU whether Dave likes it or not. The 2 billion Euros recently demanded will be paid in 1 cent coins delivered to Brussels using RAF cluster bombs. Being Gordon Brown will become a criminal offence. Fags will be down to 10 bob a packet.

Or, it could be a crap poll and we'll be in for another 5 years of Nick Clegg trying to show everybody that he doesn't make the brews at cabinet meetings.

Interesting (and in my opinion very honourable) that the SNP have demanded a seperate EU poll for all 4 nations of the UK.

Not that cameron will agree to it.

[The Knimbies who say No]

I'm thinking more of seats like Heywood where a few Tory tactical votes for UKIP could have taken the seat from Labour.

The Goat's not for turning.

[hirop]

Guardian 30/10/14

...

He told the Daily Record that the leadership election was Labour’s chance to renew itself: “It is Labour’s mission to show the people of Scotland in the next seven months that we can be that change,” he said.

The poll implies that Scottish voters have been deeply disillusioned with Labour, only a month after the party successfully spearheaded the no campaign’s victory in the Scottish independence referendum.

Senior Labour MPs privately blame Lamont for showing poor, lacklustre leadership both during and immediately after the referendum, failing to capitalise on the no camp’s victory and allowing the SNP to seize the agenda...

This thinking is pretty much a text-book example of 2 + 2 = 5

They are so far off the mark it is becoming compulsive viewing up here. There is no agenda to seize, you either stand up for normal people or you stand up for the establishment cabal of bankers and corporates whilst caning your expenses and voting against real recall. The trouble with labour is that the mask has slipped, and they are now being seen as the self serving establishment pricks that they always were (and will be).

They had a gala dinner tonight in Glasgow. People are out putting banners up to troll them, with a few hundred strong protest and foodbank collection outside the hotel. A wet thursday night in winter, and your getting trolled by normal folk. Basically, your done.

[ingermany]

Brilliant. If SNP get balance of power in Westminster they can demand another referendum. Or just demand outright independence without one. EU exit and UK break-up in one GE.

[Scunnered]

Now the deputy leader of Scottish Labour has resigned as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29845021

Scottish Labour is seeking both a new leader and a new deputy leader following the resignation of Anas Sarwar.

The Glasgow Central MP announced he was standing down from his role as depute on Thursday evening.

He is currently interim leader of the party following Johann Lamont's departure and will remain in that role until her replacement is announced.

Contests for the leadership and deputy leadership will run concurrently.

Ms Lamont quit last Friday, and accused Labour's UK leadership of treating Scotland like a branch office.

This is all very entertaining.

Edited October 31, 2014 by Scunnered

[Sancho Panza]

This thinking is pretty much a text-book example of 2 + 2 = 5

They are so far off the mark it is becoming compulsive viewing up here. There is no agenda to seize, you either stand up for normal people or you stand up for the establishment cabal of bankers and corporates whilst caning your expenses and voting against real recall. The trouble with labour is that the mask has slipped, and they are now being seen as the self serving establishment pricks that they always were (and will be).

They had a gala dinner tonight in Glasgow. People are out putting banners up to troll them, with a few hundred strong protest and foodbank collection outside the hotel. A wet thursday night in winter, and your getting trolled by normal folk. Basically, your done.

Nailed it.

The foodbank collection jsut sums it up.Good on them.

[richc]

Labour's position on Europe takes the biscuit as they are essentially saying that it is a great idea to stay in an organisation whose purpose is to take money from poor people in the richer European countries and give it to the rich people in the poorer ones Quite why Labour supports this system of quasi feudal system of wealth redistribution to landowners is beyond me.

To be fair, the EU also does a pretty good job of taking money from the poor in rich countries and giving it to the rich in rich countries too.

[Guest UK Debt Slave]

Labour support isn't just imploding in Scotland

It is haemorrhaging nationwide

You simple couldn't chose 3 more revolting cretins to run a national political party than Ed Miliband, Chukka Umunna and Ed Balls.

They've been exposed for what they are, elitist, out of touch snobs, absolutely without any common ground with the "workin' people" they are supposed to represent.

Miliband ranks as the most hopeless politician since Michael Foot.....a tough act to follow. Everything he does turns to $hit. everything he says sounds like it was written by a team of semi-literate "special advisors". Ed Balls has the thousand yard stare of a madman and Chukka Umunna edits his own Wikipedia entry and moans on social media that he is "surrounded by trash" when he is out and about in London.

And if this isn't bad enough, you have the rearguard section of hopeless cases, Harridan Harperson, supporter of PIE and paedophilia, for example.

How on earth do these people get elected as MP's

It's beyond appalling.

Edited October 31, 2014 by UK Debt Slave

[Guest UK Debt Slave]

To be fair, the EU also does a pretty good job of taking money from the poor in rich countries and giving it to the rich in rich countries too.

"Foreign aid is taking money from poor people in rich countries and giving it to rich people in poor countries." - Ron Paul

One of my favourite quotes in the last few years.

[Caius]

Labour support isn't just imploding in Scotland

It is haemorrhaging nationwide

Aren't you making the same mistake as the Labour party? I think you'll find most Scotts view their nation as being Scottish. The Labour party view 'British' as their preferred nationality with it's capital in the south east of England. That's half the problem.