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Venger

It's Getting Better All The Time - Asking Prices Vs Last Sold Prices

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Anything in the idea of keeping track of houses on the market, already realising, or heading toward, significant losses from around the 2006-2010* price paid? (Despite the $£QE trillions/zirp.) Could it help to build up an alternative picture of market situation?

*[Perhaps soon to be repeated 2012-2014 years too - stranded flippers for instance, or recent 'smart money' investors, where money is an irrelevance and them expecting the destruction of savers.]

Only tend to see these at the higher end of market, but weakness at the higher end, may weigh down eventually.

Many of these homeowners-sellers must be zombie-supported homeowners with the 0.5% and mostly corresponding mortgage rates/QE global $trillions. Could be looking at severe losses if a market turn overwhelms, or just if other sellers with similar homes transact at ever lower prices with buyers.

My own area of search is around the South Manchester/Cheshire edges. I've found a dozen of level-or-lower than paid in the last few months, but because I don't make note of them anywhere (just want a semi, or something humble and less expensive to run) they tend to slip my mind.

Super prime Hale-Altrincham-Greater Manchester.

Sale Date: 03 Sep 2007. Price Paid: £2,100,000
This property is currently on the market. Guide Price £1,850,000
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=28053258&sale=34557656&country=england

Super prime Hale-Alty (again). Not actually asking lower than they bought it act, furnishings suggest an elite financial overall position, but on market at only just over the price they paid, and real-world markets look looks like a long way down to me.

Sale Date: 04 Dec 2007. Price Paid: £2,642,975

This property is currently on the market. Guide Price £2,750,000

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=8133510&sale=34557833&country=england

One TheCountofNowhere posted up a few weeks ago, for the £200,000 asking price cut, around one of his own search areas, Northamptonshire. .

Sale Date: 24 Feb 2011. Price Paid: £1,015,000
This property is currently on the market. Offers in Excess of £1,000,000

(Was asking £1,200,000 a few months ago - see PB)
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=21163001&sale=45302246&country=england

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Still crazy round me, although there's not much of evidence of the supply surge seen elsewhere.

Ah well, worth a vid for other areas anyway:

Hah - happy trippy late 60s-early 70s song.... Starry eyed... "I don't mind waitin... I don't mind waitin, because no matter how long it takes, the two of us know... it's getting better every day."

Had a quick glance at somewhere around your (wide) search patch, and found this almost immediately; 2nd house I clicked on search and checked against last sold price.

I accept your position (same here) but is it possible there are subtle warning sides of serious weakness ahead though?

They are not making any more land, but it seems like they're not making any more buyers either. Well just enough to currently tick market over at these prices. Although MSEers on mortgage forum talking about their 2-3 hour MMR interviews at Nat West in the quest to comply and buy a house.

Sale Date: 02 Sep 2010. Price paid: £525,000

Offers in Region of £525,000

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=42199660&sale=44222957&country=england

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I trust everyone does this basic of basic check anyway, but whenever I look at an active 'for sale' Rightmove listing of interest...

.. I also click the the link View More, under the subheading Properties Sold Nearby... to see if can find corresponding pics and data from its last sold price/clump of sold price data from previous years.

The View More link takes you straight to the sold prices for the postcode. Quicker than trying to find postcode and manually search sold prices.

Probably overdone it here.. the area rectangled off in green.

2qnrrsm.jpg

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Bit of a shock in the Times property section today - front page + 2 pages inside about 'being realistic' on price if you want to sell.

The statutory smug couple + child and dog in the picture have reduced their 6 bed house in N Yorks by £100K - down to £1 .35M* so that was a bit of a joke.

BUT the article quotes a Savills director as saying that if you are motivated to sell, it may be necessary to reduce by 'as much as 20%' to stand out from the crowd. What you should never do, according to him, is reduce in dribs and drabs (his actual words) so that you're chasing the market down.

I was pretty startled to hear this from anyone at Savills.

*bought in 2010 for £775K, in Helperby, if anyone wants a good old nose. They did say it was 'semi derelict', but still a whacking great markup. They want to go and live the dream in Bordeaux, with a vineyard...

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Bit of a shock in the Times property section today - front page + 2 pages inside about 'being realistic' on price if you want to sell.

The statutory smug couple + child and dog in the picture have reduced their 6 bed house in N Yorks by £100K - down to £1 .35M* so that was a bit of a joke.

BUT the article quotes a Savills director as saying that if you are motivated to sell, it may be necessary to reduce by 'as much as 20%' to stand out from the crowd. What you should never do, according to him, is reduce in dribs and drabs (his actual words) so that you're chasing the market down.

I was pretty startled to hear this from anyone at Savills.

*bought in 2010 for £775K, in Helperby, if anyone wants a good old nose. They did say it was 'semi derelict', but still a whacking great markup. They want to go and live the dream in Bordeaux, with a vineyard...

Good stuff.

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Hah - happy trippy late 60s-early 70s song.... Starry eyed... "I don't mind waitin... I don't mind waitin, because no matter how long it takes, the two of us know... it's getting better every day."

Had a quick glance at somewhere around your (wide) search patch, and found this almost immediately; 2nd house I clicked on search and checked against last sold price.

I accept your position (same here) but is it possible there are subtle warning sides of serious weakness ahead though?

They are not making any more land, but it seems like they're not making any more buyers either. Well just enough to currently tick market over at these prices. Although MSEers on mortgage forum talking about their 2-3 hour MMR interviews at Nat West in the quest to comply and buy a house.

Sale Date: 02 Sep 2010. Price paid: £525,000

Offers in Region of £525,000

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=42199660&sale=44222957&country=england

Plenty of reasons to suppose that weakness is around the corner, despite the fact that 3 bed semis have been consistently bid up to an asking of £230k in a couple of years from maybe £200k. Buyers in my street are expected to pay (and occasionally do pay) ~peak prices. Nomatter which way you cut it, 9*average local earnings for a 3 bed semi on the outskirts of a small town which gets you little more than easy access to your commute and basic(although the kebab shop and chippy at Kingsway shops are unusually decent) local amenities is a ripoff.

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Bit of a shock in the Times property section today - front page + 2 pages inside about 'being realistic' on price if you want to sell.

The statutory smug couple + child and dog in the picture have reduced their 6 bed house in N Yorks by £100K - down to £1 .35M* so that was a bit of a joke.

BUT the article quotes a Savills director as saying that if you are motivated to sell, it may be necessary to reduce by 'as much as 20%' to stand out from the crowd. What you should never do, according to him, is reduce in dribs and drabs (his actual words) so that you're chasing the market down.

I was pretty startled to hear this from anyone at Savills.

*bought in 2010 for £775K, in Helperby, if anyone wants a good old nose. They did say it was 'semi derelict', but still a whacking great markup. They want to go and live the dream in Bordeaux, with a vineyard...

Wow thanks for that info; partially expected but still very surprising to see some EA cooling words to help owners get their houses sold. Just borrowed the newspaper so I could follow it up.

Headline: Your price has got to be realistic.

The wife of the couple selling says it sold very quickly after they put it on market, but it fell through in the buyer chain, and puts in the wanting to move to France where there is a house they really want - and claim they're reducing asking price to sell and buy France house before someone else does.

Not allowed to quote much from The Times, so will just post a few of the EA's wisdom words. 'Balance of buyers changing in the North' - (C.H - Savills' country department) - despite increase in London-based buyers with northern roots, 'market remains price sensitive' / 'motivated by value'. 'reducing price not necessarily an admission of defeat but positive move designed to generate interest and complete a sale' / Sellers have to be honest with themselves and clued up. Maybe the SoCal guy was correct, and this is part of the turn.

Still, many of us have very different realities about values/money/debt/stability in our decisions. Bought £775K in Aug 2010 as you stated.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45563806.html?backListLink=%2Fproperty-for-sale%2Ffind.html

Paul

October 4, 2014 at 4:18 pm

….EXACTLY CORRECT ….

This spike in escalating home prices was due to temporary lack of inventory,

but the prices and sales are declining slowly.

Once the reductions TAKE HOLD .. the price reductions will escalate …. WHY?????

Because the REAL ESTATE SALES PEOPLE (Agents/Brokers)

MUST MAKE A LIVING .. THEY WILL TELL THE SELLERS ANYTHING …

” Sorry — I can’t get you Top Dollar for your house… Sales are DECLINING”

What the R.E. Agent/Broker is really saying is :

” I really need to SELL SOMETHING, I have bills to pay and I need to make

a quick sale on your p.o.s. House — I need my money FIRST … You can take

your FANTASY PROFIT that we promised you when you signed the Listing Agreement

and just “eat your heart out” ….. TOUGH LUCK FOR YOU…. I NEED MY COMMISSION,

IT’S TIME TO DISCOUNT YOUR damn PROPERTY”.

*** AND THAT IS EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT.****

Just go back and take a look at 1991 to 1996 California R.E. Statistics,

I lived through it and bought a house at 75% discount. I saw how

desperate and hungry the Agents and Brokers were — THEY ONLY CARED

ABOUT THEIR COMMISSION….. REALITY RETURNS TO US AGAIN.

Edited by Venger

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Plenty of reasons to suppose that weakness is around the corner, despite the fact that 3 bed semis have been consistently bid up to an asking of £230k in a couple of years from maybe £200k. Buyers in my street are expected to pay (and occasionally do pay) ~peak prices. Nomatter which way you cut it, 9*average local earnings for a 3 bed semi on the outskirts of a small town which gets you little more than easy access to your commute and basic(although the kebab shop and chippy at Kingsway shops are unusually decent) local amenities is a ripoff.

I know it; know know it. Miserable here because thhe 'lower end' of market around here (200K - quarter million pounds) also competing against BTL investors / 'not earning anything in the bank' / 'houses always go up' and then others overreaching to set the higher transaction prices. I will stick to my own reality where money and value and having a balanced debt exposure, all matter a lot. It's all we can do really for now.

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I know it; know know it. Miserable here because thhe 'lower end' of market around here (200K - quarter million pounds) also competing against BTL investors / 'not earning anything in the bank' / 'houses always go up' and then others overreaching to set the higher transaction prices. I will stick to my own reality where money and value and having a balanced debt exposure, all matter a lot. It's all we can do really for now.

Indeed. I came across a bit blunt btw, wasn't meant!

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Indeed. I came across a bit blunt btw, wasn't meant!

I like it blunt and real, and know of your long term patience in seeking to do best for your own family, against this market.

Everytime I came to open the reply box to the Summer invite thread for meet-up on NW Regional subforum, my mind wouldn't work, fingers couldn't type, my legs felt heavy - vs - house prices selling at new peaks, asking prices going up and up, houses on market at 8 year lows, stock markets soaring, and not a scrap of house price caution/hestitation from any of the main newspapers but just so many articles of VI looking at contiunous HPI. I wasn't being anti-social in not following up my initial interest and stopping my participation in thread... it was just markets heavily weighing down.

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Bit of a shock in the Times property section today - front page + 2 pages inside about 'being realistic' on price if you want to sell.

The statutory smug couple + child and dog in the picture have reduced their 6 bed house in N Yorks by £100K - down to £1 .35M* so that was a bit of a joke.

BUT the article quotes a Savills director as saying that if you are motivated to sell, it may be necessary to reduce by 'as much as 20%' to stand out from the crowd. What you should never do, according to him, is reduce in dribs and drabs (his actual words) so that you're chasing the market down.

I was pretty startled to hear this from anyone at Savills.

*bought in 2010 for £775K, in Helperby, if anyone wants a good old nose. They did say it was 'semi derelict', but still a whacking great markup. They want to go and live the dream in Bordeaux, with a vineyard...

How on earth does a young family in Yorkshire get the funds to spend 800k on a house during the grip of a debt crisis and employment recession?

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How on earth does a young family in Yorkshire get the funds to spend 800k on a house during the grip of a debt crisis and employment recession?

I think it said he worked (past tense) in 'financial services'. Nuff sed - a few huge bonuses = enough to pack it all in and go and live in Bordeaux and play at vineyards.

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I think it said he worked (past tense) in 'financial services'. Nuff sed - a few huge bonuses = enough to pack it all in and go and live in Bordeaux and play at vineyards.

Ah

Gordon's bailout

Nice

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I think it said he worked (past tense) in 'financial services'. Nuff sed - a few huge bonuses = enough to pack it all in and go and live in Bordeaux and play at vineyards.

They could surely have done that in 2010. Instead this purchase at £775K in 2010, for 4 years of ownership and effort doing it up. The 'best' house in the local area is it... ? Main Street on streetview makes it appear so. Anyway, according to Mirror Mirror, no problem... because houses are a currency (lol), even at prices people been paying to own them at... £3/4milion pounds.. expecting others to come along paying way over £1m a few years later. We shall see.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45563806.html

Accepting they've put money into doing it up... even the £775K was far and above anything that has sold in a 1/4 mile range according to Rightmove-Land Registry search.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^974853&searchLocation=YO61+2NT&radius=0.25

There's a smaller house on Main Street under offer at £595K

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44493163.html?premiumA=true

and another on a 1/4 mile search, Guide £430K with Express Agency, where 'all interest and OFFERS are INVITED.'

Edited by Venger

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They could surely have done that in 2010. Instead this purchase at £775K in 2010, for 4 years of ownership and effort doing it up. The 'best' house in the local area is it... ? Main Street on streetview makes it appear so. Anyway, according to Mirror Mirror, no problem... because houses are a currency (lol), even at prices people been paying to own them at... £3/4milion pounds.. expecting others to come along paying way over £1m a few years later. We shall see.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45563806.html

Accepting they've put money into doing it up... even the £775K was far and above anything that has sold in a 1/4 mile range according to Rightmove-Land Registry search.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^974853&searchLocation=YO61+2NT&radius=0.25

There's a smaller house on Main Street under offer at £595K

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44493163.html?premiumA=true

and another on a 1/4 mile search, Guide £430K with Express Agency, where 'all interest and OFFERS are INVITED.'

I can't imagine anyone in any practical sense ever wanting to live in such an ostentatious expression of bad taste

It's awful

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Still crazy round me, although there's not much of evidence of the supply surge seen elsewhere.

Ah well, worth a vid for other areas anyway:

Patience.....'' And I don't mind waiting, I don't mind waiting.....because no matter how long it takes the two of us knows that it's getting better''

Edited by crashmonitor

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They could surely have done that in 2010. Instead this purchase at £775K in 2010, for 4 years of ownership and effort doing it up. The 'best' house in the local area is it... ? Main Street on streetview makes it appear so. Anyway, according to Mirror Mirror, no problem... because houses are a currency (lol), even at prices people been paying to own them at... £3/4milion pounds.. expecting others to come along paying way over £1m a few years later. We shall see.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45563806.html

Accepting they've put money into doing it up... even the £775K was far and above anything that has sold in a 1/4 mile range according to Rightmove-Land Registry search.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^974853&searchLocation=YO61+2NT&radius=0.25

There's a smaller house on Main Street under offer at £595K

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44493163.html?premiumA=true

and another on a 1/4 mile search, Guide £430K with Express Agency, where 'all interest and OFFERS are INVITED.'

With my charitable hat on (not always easy to find it) I can imagine the original impetus was that it'd be nice to live in a big impressive house in N Yorks, because even the most hardened grump would have to accept that N Yorks is beautiful. Also, it said that she was an interior designer so she probably enjoyed doing it up.

Can imagine that eventually it dawned on them that a) the house is huge for 2 adults, one infant and a dog, and given that N Yorks can be bloody cold, expensive to heat. And that for that same money they could get an even more impressive place in France, with a vineyard thrown in. Though still maybe with large heating bills in winter. A BIL of mine has a big place in Burgundy and it does get bloody cold in winter. He spends a fortune on heating oil.

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A BIL of mine has a big place in Burgundy and it does get bloody cold in winter. He spends a fortune on heating oil.

Perhaps his neighbours probably come round in the night and help themselves to his heating oil?

Edit: typo.

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Ofcourse house prices will fall.

Our masters were caught flat footed in 2008, they have blatantly massaged the system to position themselves for the big one.

The too big to fail banks are now even bigger.

British Society has had a systemic problem since the end of WW2 that has not and cannot be addressed by weak ignorant politicians who see no further than the next election.

We are talking terminal decline over decades here, and this housing bubble is just one symptom.

At least it has got the proles into debt which makes them all more controllable.

Thatcher and Reagan bought time with their policies...thats all.

The NHS is not fit for purpose, nor is education or what has laughingly been re-branded as defence (or should that be attack?)...we do not have the money.

As for pensions, they are already finished...the VIs just have to keep the plates spinning (and the under 45's paying for as long as possible) until they leave the arena with their seats in the house of lords.

Our system relies on constant growth (the real reason for immigration) to function and for too long now that has been funded by borrowing from the future.

Well guess what, the future is now arriving.

We will soon see a collapse that will be the REAL fall of the British Empire (Anglo American Banking Empire) and the US, UK and the white Anglo-saxon English speaking commonwealth will drag the Europeans into a depression of savage intensity.

That is unless they can start a war...cue ISIS cutting a few heads off on YouTube (or is that IS or ISIL???)

We are about to live through some "interesting times" me thinks.

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Ofcourse house prices will fall.

Our masters were caught flat footed in 2008, they have blatantly massaged the system to position themselves for the big one.

The too big to fail banks are now even bigger.

British Society has had a systemic problem since the end of WW2 that has not and cannot be addressed by weak ignorant politicians who see no further than the next election.

We are talking terminal decline over decades here, and this housing bubble is just one symptom.

At least it has got the proles into debt which makes them all more controllable.

Thatcher and Reagan bought time with their policies...thats all.

The NHS is not fit for purpose, nor is education or what has laughingly been re-branded as defence (or should that be attack?)...we do not have the money.

As for pensions, they are already finished...the VIs just have to keep the plates spinning (and the under 45's paying for as long as possible) until they leave the arena with their seats in the house of lords.

Our system relies on constant growth (the real reason for immigration) to function and for too long now that has been funded by borrowing from the future.

Well guess what, the future is now arriving.

We will soon see a collapse that will be the REAL fall of the British Empire (Anglo American Banking Empire) and the US, UK and the white Anglo-saxon English speaking commonwealth will drag the Europeans into a depression of savage intensity.

That is unless they can start a war...cue ISIS cutting a few heads off on YouTube (or is that IS or ISIL???)

We are about to live through some "interesting times" me thinks.

Agree. Particularly with the bit in bold.

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Not me below - I've never owned a house (saver into boom time stupidity and into unfair reflation bailouts); but just reminds me that some of the owners out there may now be feeling uneasy, and maybe soon, start the feeling of having anxiety knots in their stomach -vs- what was always before, forever HPI boom complacency, HPI compounding wealth-upon-wealth spreadsheets.

The last house i owned, it took me about 12-15 months to find a buyer, I only lived there 18 months, realised what a mistake it was living their shortly after I moved in. I completed shortly before the NR collapse.

Not being able to sell was a weight round my neck. The agents ALL wanted to put the house up for silly money, it sold for 80K less then the initial asking price ( 10K more than I paid for it, which just about covered my buying/selling costs ). It was depressing not being able to find a buyer. It was perhaps the unhappiest time of my life. Little did I know at the time how dysfunctional the market had become and what was coming.

Being stuck in a house is no fun. The costs/risks involved in owning a house are huge. Buying at the prices we see now is a mugs game for sure.

Sale Date: 29 Oct 2007. Price Paid: £2,400,000

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=43413433&sale=34549514&country=england

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-43413433.html

28/01/2015: Price changed: from '£2,690,000' to '£2,500,000'
31/07/2014: Price changed: from '£2,795,000' to '£2,690,000'
25/03/2014: Initial entry found

That's mansion land; mansion upon mansion built during the boom years. Where are the upsizers???

~

This guy won't have financial problems, even into a HPC (or at least I seriously doubt it), but still having to cut asking price, to try and find that buyer.

The Premier League star put his house up for sale at £4.5 million this summer..
...has sliced £700,000 off the asking price of his mansion just a month after putting it on the market.
...has cut to £3.8million in the hope a new United signing will buy it, reports the Sun.

Looks like a match to me, but no idea what he bought it for.

Guide £3,450,000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45263038.html

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