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fru-gal

Farage: July 2015 Referendum Is My Price For Propping Up Tories

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Lets hope leaving the EU would cause a short term shock to the UK economy and house prices would crash as Gidiot and Dave aswell as Clegg have proven they are the party who will do everything to keep the bubble inflated.

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Interesting strategy. Gives Farage an aura of control and the feeling he is calling the shots and setting the agenda.

Demanding firm assurances rather than blabbing on via ambiguous euphemisms shows strong leadership.

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Oh and I was contemplating voting for them.

They need to completely dissociate themselves from the current establishment.

+1

That is their thing, they aren't LibLabCon. What happens after an election is another thing.

Edited by tinker

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The LibDems might have done better in coalition if they were prepared to play a bit more hardball rather than just bending over. They could have caused a no confidence vote at any time.

They were not. Maybe Farage would be? Farage could get em to do the referendum and then renege if he wanted even. The Kipper voters would probably love him for it.

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Seems like a high risk statement from Farage given that many ex-Labour UKIP supporters won't appreciate an advantage given to the Tories even if it does obtain the desired referendum.

Lord Ashcroft's polling is worth a look- he is conducting polls of 1,000 people in constituencies of interest (marginals). Were his research findings replicated on polling day, the expected Lib-Dem losses will be roughly evenly split between Labour and Tories, but in the Labour-Tory marginals he has yet to find what he describes at the 'bite point' - the point at which current Tory held marginals against Labour are expected to stay in Tory hands after the election. His polling has concentrated on the seats with the smallest majorities and is progressively moving to seats with higher and higher majorities. In the current round of releases, 9 of 11 Tory held marginals with majorities of between 1,300 and 2,400 votes would go to Labour. The presence of UKIP is a significant factor according to Ashcroft.

Given the Tories are the largest party by 46 seats, and the Lib Dem losses are expected to be split evenly, if Ashcroft finds the 'bite point' extends into seats with majorities of 4,000 or so then a Labour majority would be inevitable (if repeated on polling day..)

Worth a read, pretty interesting imo.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/back-con-lab-battleground/

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Seems like a high risk statement from Farage given that many ex-Labour UKIP supporters won't appreciate an advantage given to the Tories even if it does obtain the desired referendum.

Lord Ashcroft's polling is worth a look- he is conducting polls of 1,000 people in constituencies of interest (marginals). Were his research findings replicated on polling day, the expected Lib-Dem losses will be roughly evenly split between Labour and Tories, but in the Labour-Tory marginals he has yet to find what he describes at the 'bite point' - the point at which current Tory held marginals against Labour are expected to stay in Tory hands after the election. His polling has concentrated on the seats with the smallest majorities and is progressively moving to seats with higher and higher majorities. In the current round of releases, 9 of 11 Tory held marginals with majorities of between 1,300 and 2,400 votes would go to Labour. The presence of UKIP is a significant factor according to Ashcroft.

Given the Tories are the largest party by 46 seats, and the Lib Dem losses are expected to be split evenly, if Ashcroft finds the 'bite point' extends into seats with majorities of 4,000 or so then a Labour majority would be inevitable (if repeated on polling day..)

Worth a read, pretty interesting imo.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/back-con-lab-battleground/

Latest suite of constituency-level polling from Ashcroft, it now shows the Tories behind in 38 Tory-Lab marginal, and the point at which Tory losses end has not yet been identified, in terms of Tory majority required. It shows the scale of the problem facing Cameron, the media have been all over Miliband of late but the polling says Dave has work to do:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/11/labour-ahead-tory-seats-much/#more-6580

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As independence is the core policy of the United Kingdom Independence Party (it's in the name) it make sense to make an immediate IN/OUT referendum on the eu a condition for propping up the Conservative party.

If the vote is for OUT then the coalition would be the vehicle to arrange things accordingly. If the Conservatives don't like that then they could stand down and have another general election but the electorate having voted OUT would likely vote accordingly in a general election.

If the vote is for IN then likely the coalition could still continue provided it continued to implement UKIP favoured policies like direct democracy etc etc etc.

Mr Farage's announcement seems reasonable - except it should also be conditional on Mr Cameron resigning but likely that part is the unsaid part.

Mind you with the polling to date in the Rochester and Strood by-election and UKIP's increasing share of the vote then almost anything could happen by the time of the general election.

Edited by billybong

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