Big Black Monthly Thread

[pl1]

Initial claims for unemployment are still running at record lows in the US. The non-adjusted figures are published here:

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/eta20151714.pdf

Suggests today's non-farms payroll number will be strong enough to force a rate rise this month or next. And that would initiate a hard sell-off this afternoon. Sub 6000 finish is my guess.

It has got to the point where good unemployment figures initiate a selloff because they are more likely to mean rate rise?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Draghi's already commited with his "whatever it takes" comment. His colours are well and truly on the mast for all to see.

I think people are getting a bit sick of the bankers and their ongoing fraud, Dhragi would be better letting the correction occur.

[zugzwang]

It has got to the point where good unemployment figures initiate a selloff because they are more likely to mean rate rise?

Yes. The longer Yellen vacillates the more acute the reaction is likely to be.

Big downward move today, though. We didn't quite get to 6000 but not far off. Monday/Tuesday next week should get her done.

An absolutely cracking start to September!

[zugzwang]

Liesman, Insana and Kudlow.

Has a trio of financial commentators ever been more appropriately named?

[council dweller]

I`ve voted twice for UKIP so far and will vote in the referendum for a final time next year. I just have to A. get to the polling station and B. work out which one of 2 boxes to put my cross in. It`s a challenge .......

You never know the migrant problem will probably be much worse next year.....especially if Cameron has anything to do with it.

[The Aggravated Francophile]

We're moving to France in December. We've bought 4 acres of CU land south of Carcassonne for €54k (was up for €80k). I genuinely think the worlds going to change shortly and thought where else could I buy land so cheap, that I could turn 3 acres over to permaculture for when the poop does, indeed, hit the fan. Hoping to get there and building before we leave the Euro, which is how I think it's starting to look.

I'm also slightly scared by the prospect of the UK having, potentially, a further 100,000+ migrants here, all looking for jobs, or not and using a scarce set of public services. The Schools here, already, are taking a bit of a beating and whilst we're rural, way away form the south east, we still have quite a lot of eastern europeans in our schools, kids who are using valuable time resources here on getting up to enough speed to not hold other kids up in class. I can't see that improving; 50 families in each town in the UK the plan? That means more stress of the education, nhs, social services. I read yesterday there are 11m refugees waiting to come. Whilst its devastating for them, to keep on letting them in sends a signal to them all to come; it's going to get worse. Add to that even a small percentage, a tiny amount, who could be ISIS (an other faction) and, well, I don't need to paint the picture.

I am glad I'll have enough land, and hopefully wind, to see out any issues coming.

Just hope the French don't end up kicking us out. Wouldn't that be ironic. Could I claim asylum; I don't want to live here anymore

[frederico]

Just the 5million, and growing, supporters.

Right wing Britain is on the rise....swiftly followed by...at war Britain...alll in the name of defending our borders and freedom.

Sorry, UKIP were shown up at the last election, despite lots of free publicity from the media, they failed dismally. The people of Britain do not want UKIP.

Nobody seems to know what they do want mind.

As regards the markets, it amazes me that anyone is putting money in at the moment.

[papag]

We're moving to France in December. We've bought 4 acres of CU land south of Carcassonne for €54k (was up for €80k). I genuinely think the worlds going to change shortly and thought where else could I buy land so cheap, that I could turn 3 acres over to permaculture for when the poop does, indeed, hit the fan. Hoping to get there and building before we leave the Euro, which is how I think it's starting to look.

I'm also slightly scared by the prospect of the UK having, potentially, a further 100,000+ migrants here, all looking for jobs, or not and using a scarce set of public services. The Schools here, already, are taking a bit of a beating and whilst we're rural, way away form the south east, we still have quite a lot of eastern europeans in our schools, kids who are using valuable time resources here on getting up to enough speed to not hold other kids up in class. I can't see that improving; 50 families in each town in the UK the plan? That means more stress of the education, nhs, social services. I read yesterday there are 11m refugees waiting to come. Whilst its devastating for them, to keep on letting them in sends a signal to them all to come; it's going to get worse. Add to that even a small percentage, a tiny amount, who could be ISIS (an other faction) and, well, I don't need to paint the picture.

I am glad I'll have enough land, and hopefully wind, to see out any issues coming.

Just hope the French don't end up kicking us out. Wouldn't that be ironic. Could I claim asylum; I don't want to live here anymore

Hope all goes well for you , I have done similar in Spain no land just an apartment bolt hole if you like. Around us in the UK we are beset by problems with our friends from overseas my good lady is at her wits end with everything that's happening around here even witout the millions waiting to come. Last week on challenging the police on recent crimes they say they know who are responsible but are powerless to detain / charge them as they have no ID home etc so what's the point . Very scary as to the future of the UK with no real available money just more debt and we all know what's going to happen soon..

Edited September 5, 2015 by papag

[The Aggravated Francophile]

The thing, for me, with UKIP, is there's plenty of support 'around' the country, but not enough in each constituency. So, in that respect, they'll never get a seat.

[The Aggravated Francophile]

Hope all goes well for you , I have done similar in Spain no land just an appointment bolt hole if you lik.Around us in the UK we are beset by problems with our friends from overseas my good lady is at her wits end with everything that's happening around here even witout the millions waiting to come. Last week on challenging the police on recent crimes they say they know who are responsible but are powerless to detain / charge them as they have no ID home etc so what's the point . Very scary as to the future of the UK with no real available money just more debt and we all know what's going to happen soon..

Thanks a lot. Much Appreciated. We have been thinking about it for years, but finally decided it's the time to do it. 18th December, Xmas in Limoux, then we'll set to putting something there from march, maybe Feb onwards. Just have this gnawing belief something big is going to happen soon.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Sorry, UKIP were shown up at the last election, despite lots of free publicity from the media, they failed dismally. The people of Britain do not want UKIP.

Nobody seems to know what they do want mind.

As regards the markets, it amazes me that anyone is putting money in at the moment.

Oh right you are....there was me thinking their share of the vote had shot up and barring the out of date electorate system they'd be representing a fair chunk of people in parliament.

Come the next election UKIP will be as strong as labour....5 more years of immigration....5 years of actual austerity...5 years of listening to Cameroooon and Osboring.

[justthisbloke]

@AggravatedFrancophile: (your move really deserves a thread of it's own but I think newbies don't have that privilege)

Brave move, I hope it goes well. Will you be working out there or living off investments (albeit, no doubt, in an HPC frugalista manner) in addition to your land? I'm also curious as to why you chose to leave the UK. Everytime I've looked at abandoning ship, I've found it to be unattractive from almost every angle - bar house/land prices. And I've always had a sneaking suspicion that if I looked for somewhere in the desolate North, prices would be cheapish.

I doubt you'll escape immigrants by moving South - but maybe you know more than I on that score. Personally, I don't have a problem with migrants - provided I don't have to pay for them.

[The Aggravated Francophile]

@AggravatedFrancophile: (your move really deserves a thread of it's own but I think newbies don't have that privilege)

Brave move, I hope it goes well. Will you be working out there or living off investments (albeit, no doubt, in an HPC frugalista manner) in addition to your land? I'm also curious as to why you chose to leave the UK. Everytime I've looked at abandoning ship, I've found it to be unattractive from almost every angle - bar house/land prices. And I've always had a sneaking suspicion that if I looked for somewhere in the desolate North, prices would be cheapish.

I doubt you'll escape immigrants by moving South - but maybe you know more than I on that score. Personally, I don't have a problem with migrants - provided I don't have to pay for them.

Hi, thanks, again.

I'll be working here on and off (flying in and out weekly) for 6 months a year until we're settled. But initially, I'll be there full time for 12-18 months. We've enough money to build on the land we've bought and in the interim, we'll be putting together a market garden as such, one that could, with planning, feed us. The region we're moving to has a good supply of wind all year (keeps it nice cooler in summer to the ambient temps), so we have a good supply of renewables, plus with Solar and the new heating solar (name escapes me), we can become fairly self sufficient, more so when home battery stores become more available, so we should be able to exist on quite a low amount of money.

We're moving to a very rural area, but not to escape migrants, that wasn't the idea, it was to go somewhere with a longer growing season than we have here and one with a climate that would be better for us as we get older. It's not going to be a silver bullet, a shangri la, I know, for every place has its pros and cons, but we like it there, we speak French and have been preparing for years. We sold up in 2013, convinced prices wouldn't get higher, but they have, and it kind of scares me that we seem to be walking headlong into a very large car crash. No one seems to think, anymore, that things can be bad. I just think we're on the brink of something quite big and when it goes pop, I don't want to be near anything resembling an area of tactical value, or of large population. Sounds bit tin foily, but it's how we feel at the moment, plus we'll home school the kids for a year so we can spend a bit of their ever dwindling childhood with them

[The Aggravated Francophile]

Oh right you are....there was me thinking their share of the vote had shot up and barring the out of date electorate system they'd be representing a fair chunk of people in parliament.

Come the next election UKIP will be as strong as labour....5 more years of immigration....5 years of actual austerity...5 years of listening to Cameroooon and Osboring.

But, as was said, if we're out of the EU, UKIP seems to become less current, less, well not required; it would lose its being.

[crashmonitor]

The jury is out as to whether the bull run since 2009 is over or this is just a correction on the way up. A lot of comparisons have been made with the August 1998 Russian crisis close to the end of the bull run. However, looking back there is another correction that would fit today's model more closely.

We all know about the autumn 1987 crash whence the FTSE 100 went to 1600 after which we got a climb to the 3450 area by early 2004. That pretty much follows the path of the doubling the FTSE 100 has seen since 2009 over a simialr period, also the index was priced almost identical allowing for inflation which has doubled...for 3450 read 6900.

When the correction came it shaded a Bear but not quite.....3450 approx. to 2850 and struggled to launch off the sub 3000s thereafter. Of course, when it did we got the continuation of the bull to 6930 over the next five years.

May be I am just clutching at straws and we just have a load of hopeless banks, oil and mining firms and service sector firms that haven't got a chance of making a profit from a public that expects to buy everything for just about free these days in the great deflation of services.

Indeed as a fully paid up member of the housepricecrash skinteratti I don't expect to pay for anything these days.

http://swanlowpark.co.uk/ftseannual.jsp

Edited September 5, 2015 by crashmonitor

[zugzwang]

The jury is out as to whether the bull run since 2009 is over or this is just a correction on the way up. A lot of comparisons have been made with the August 1998 Russian crisis close to the end of the bull run. However, looking back there is another correction that would fit today's model more closely.

We all know about the autumn 1987 crash whence the FTSE 100 went to 1600 after which we got a climb to the 3450 area by early 2004. That pretty much follows the path of the doubling the FTSE 100 has seen since 2009 over a simialr period, also the index was priced almost identical allowing for inflation which has doubled...for 3450 read 6900.

When the correction came it shaded a Bear but not quite.....3450 approx. to 2850 and struggled to launch off the sub 3000s thereafter. Of course, when it did we got the continuation of the bull to 6930 over the next five years.

May be I am just clutching at straws and we just have a load of hopeless banks, oil and mining firms and service sector firms that haven't got a chance of making a profit from a public that expects to buy everything for just about free these days in the great deflation of services.

Indeed as a fully paid up member of the housepricecrash skinteratti I don't expect to pay for anything these days.

http://swanlowpark.co.uk/ftseannual.jsp

It's a secular bear market that will trade down for the next five to ten years as the debt deleveraging process resumes in earnest. The limits of QE have been reached, the central banks have effectively run out of debt to monetise. As a mechanism QE fails because it generally acts to maintain rather drive down levels of private sector indebtedness, the root cause of the crisis. Unless the central planners choose to Weimar-ise their economies via out-and-out money printing then you should look to stay in cash or get short. Alternatively, if they adopt to print, then precious metals are your friend.

[wish I could afford one]

We're moving to France in December. We've bought 4 acres of CU land south of Carcassonne for €54k (was up for €80k). I genuinely think the worlds going to change shortly and thought where else could I buy land so cheap, that I could turn 3 acres over to permaculture for when the poop does, indeed, hit the fan. Hoping to get there and building before we leave the Euro, which is how I think it's starting to look.

...

Sounds like the start of an adventure. Would you be prepared to share why you're going to build a home rather than buy some land with one already on it? Inquisitive as I'm investigating building vs buying also. I'm looking for as close to zero energy/running costs as possible.

[The Aggravated Francophile]

Sounds like the start of an adventure. Would you be prepared to share why you're going to build a home rather than buy some land with one already on it? Inquisitive as I'm investigating building vs buying also. I'm looking for as close to zero energy/running costs as possible.

Mainly as we can make it as eco friendly as possible; I want to be able to run off grid if I needed to. We can design a house using proper scientific principles to best heat, cool and insulate. The French are more savvy from a design perspective so have a wider range of acceptable designs; we tried this in the UK and every one of our designs were poo poohed as they didn't fit into the look and feel of the area (poppy **** itself). Too make an older house less costly to run is harder, more expensive. We can locate the house in the best position, put parts of it underground, we'll have enough land to get a wind turbine up,a usefully sized one. Mainly because it gives us a lot of options that taking on an older house wouldn't. Without labouring a point (if I haven't already), we'll have plants on the roof, ground source heat, turbine, solar thermal and solar PV and whilst just listing that is £20k, that's ready to go off grid, in case the poop does hit the fan.

We've also invested with the kids in that they can design parts too, well, the less insane ones (zip wire from their bedroom to the pool, etc...).

Also, building land is of a magnitude cheaper, so it makes it doable. A similar sized plot wouldn't exist in the uk, it simply wouldn't. If it did, it would be far and away too expensive to justify.

[crashmonitor]

It's a secular bear market that will trade down for the next five to ten years as the debt deleveraging process resumes in earnest. The limits of QE have been reached, the central banks have effectively run out of debt to monetise. As a mechanism QE fails because it generally acts to maintain rather drive down levels of private sector indebtedness, the root cause of the crisis. Unless the central planners choose to Weimar-ise their economies via out-and-out money printing then you should look to stay in cash or get short. Alternatively, if they adopt to print, then precious metals are your friend.

Today might be key to where we are going this week. not surprisingly the FTSE has rallied off the back of relative calm on the Shanghai composite, I reckon it needs to hold at 6100 to make further progress.

If I was to bet on the outcome for Friday I would go with 6300, and still think it may firm to 6500 by the month end,

But for that to happen we need rate holds from the Fed, a rally on oil and a good start to this week. If it doesn't hold at 6100 the shorts will have another ago, they pounce on any weakness in the bulls and lacklustre rallies are shot down at the moment.

[Democorruptcy]

We're moving to France in December. We've bought 4 acres of CU land south of Carcassonne for €54k (was up for €80k). I genuinely think the worlds going to change shortly and thought where else could I buy land so cheap, that I could turn 3 acres over to permaculture for when the poop does, indeed, hit the fan. Hoping to get there and building before we leave the Euro, which is how I think it's starting to look.

I'm also slightly scared by the prospect of the UK having, potentially, a further 100,000+ migrants here, all looking for jobs, or not and using a scarce set of public services. The Schools here, already, are taking a bit of a beating and whilst we're rural, way away form the south east, we still have quite a lot of eastern europeans in our schools, kids who are using valuable time resources here on getting up to enough speed to not hold other kids up in class. I can't see that improving; 50 families in each town in the UK the plan? That means more stress of the education, nhs, social services. I read yesterday there are 11m refugees waiting to come. Whilst its devastating for them, to keep on letting them in sends a signal to them all to come; it's going to get worse. Add to that even a small percentage, a tiny amount, who could be ISIS (an other faction) and, well, I don't need to paint the picture.

I am glad I'll have enough land, and hopefully wind, to see out any issues coming.

Just hope the French don't end up kicking us out. Wouldn't that be ironic. Could I claim asylum; I don't want to live here anymore

Have you seen how much coast and border there is in France? Plenty of spaces for the immigrants to pour in and call into your place for some food on the way up to the UK.

I think you might be going in the wrong direction. Maybe the Scottish Highlands instead? The growing season isn't as long but plenty of water.

[crashmonitor]

Wall Street also looking pretty cautious off the back of last week. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see where it is headed after they have gotten Labour day out of the way.

http://www.ig.com/uk/ig-indices/wall-street

Absolutely relevant to be concentrate on markets at the moment because the tail is trying to wag the economic dog. Global markets are under attack . The trouble with shaking out retail investors suffering heavy losses is that you risk an impact on consumption down the line. China being a case in point.

Edited September 7, 2015 by crashmonitor

[The Aggravated Francophile]

Have you seen how much coast and border there is in France? Plenty of spaces for the immigrants to pour in and call into your place for some food on the way up to the UK.

I think you might be going in the wrong direction. Maybe the Scottish Highlands instead? The growing season isn't as long but plenty of water.

Well, if they get themselves to me, they'd have walked past a lot of places better suited, so I am willing to make that gamble. I think that migrants are coming here not to retire to the deep, deep French countryside, not to be there for the silence and absence of industry and picturesque view of the Pyrenees. I think they'll be looking for larger centres where there's more work. Besides, the Cathars were historically resolute punchy types

Scotland? No chance; the reason we hate English Winters is the low cloud, the mizzle, the damp, the absolute misery of it at times and we want to stretch a growing season a couple of months. With a polytunnel, there's not much I'll not be able to grow, with land not many animals I can't raise. Couple that with renewables and it's, for us, an obvious choice.

[crashmonitor]

Well, if they get themselves to me, they'd have walked past a lot of places better suited, so I am willing to make that gamble. I think that migrants are coming here not to retire to the deep, deep French countryside, not to be there for the silence and absence of industry and picturesque view of the Pyrenees. I think they'll be looking for larger centres where there's more work. Besides, the Cathars were historically resolute punchy types

Scotland? No chance; the reason we hate English Winters is the low cloud, the mizzle, the damp, the absolute misery of it at times and we want to stretch a growing season a couple of months. With a polytunnel, there's not much I'll not be able to grow, with land not many animals I can't raise. Couple that with renewables and it's, for us, an obvious choice.

Absolutely damn right you will be safe in deepest France...they are indeed looking for urban centres and housing. The fact that France is not too fussed about indefinite shanty towns and isn't in any hurry to hand out welfare means the migrants are generally desperate to get out of the country. The Calais lot says it all...''France is not a good place we want England''

The amazing thing is France with open borders attracts hardly any asylum seekers.

Edited September 7, 2015 by crashmonitor

[crashmonitor]

Well there is time left today but the rally has gone a bit tits up to be honest. Needed to stay above 6100, had all the help it needed from Shanghai, big fail

http://www.google.co.uk/finance?cid=12590587

[The Aggravated Francophile]

Absolutely damn right you will be safe in deepest France...they are indeed looking for urban centres and housing. The fact that France is not too fussed about indefinite shanty towns and isn't in any hurry to hand out welfare means the migrants are generally desperate to get out of the country. The Calais lot says it all...''France is not a good place we want England''

The amazing thing is France with open borders attracts hardly any asylum seekers.

The thing is, most of the refugees coming from the middle east and Afghanistan, Pakistan, speak English as a second language; French isn't taught as a second language there, so it's kind of, to me, obvious they want to come to the UK. Germany needs migration to keeps its economy going, so are welcoming them with open arms. I don't think we have the necessary infrastructure to suddenly welcome 100k migrants. Asn aside, a friend living north of Frankfurt tells me they are preparing for 47,000 migrants to come to his city (Giessen). Says they have already had 20k, but that they have nothing to do, so roam the streets all day. Kind of concerning, as much as they want to help, it's now coming through that they're worrying at what cost it will all be.

France will have to take it's allocation, but as I said, it'll not be round where I am moving, there's nothing there!