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Guy

Wow - It's Actually Happened! Welcome Hpc!

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Haven't visited this site for a while as I haven't had much to report. Recently it has all been "prices falling but slowly, stagnation yada, yadya yada" and I started to lose faith in an HPC.

Then over the last two weeks three business guys I know have all dumped their portfolios in the SE & NW, the lot!

I haven't bumped into them all yet to ask them personally (so far it's just been dinner party chat), but I am meeting with one of them tomorrow for the varsity match at Twickenham so I'll ask him why!

I wonder if they are all separately gearing up to sell into the SIPP muppets buying spree and so adjust their holdings for what might be a bad bear market?

Has anyone else seen this happening?

Ps. Does anyone know of any good IT recruitment agencies for Development Manager posts - I'm looking for a new job in the NY!

Edited by Guy

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How big were the portfolios?

These were all business portfolios so I expect they are not small. [removed name] is around 40 or 50 properties mostly HMO's in London I think, but I could be wrong as that information comes from some time ago.

Edited: Schoolboy error! Added the guy's name to the post! Opps! Must really be off the boil today.

Edited by Guy

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These were all business portfolios so I expect they are not small. [removed name] is around 40 or 50 properties mostly HMO's in London I think, but I could be wrong as that information comes from some time ago.

Edited: Schoolboy error! Added the guy's name to the post! Opps! Must really be off the boil today.

Well if it turns out that these are the firts of many then the panic stage could be quite close.

We'll just have to wait and see. Of course, if your mates are responding the the actions of others then we could be witnessing a general move out of property.

I wonder where their capital will be heading next? Gold? Shares?

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Guy,

Were the sales dispositions of the properties on a piecemeal basis or as a portfolio?

I ask because of the nature of the buyers - individuals or "investors".

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Guy,

Were the sales dispositions of the properties on a piecemeal basis or as a portfolio?

I ask because of the nature of the buyers - individuals or "investors".

I'm afraid I don't know - yet!

However, I can ask tomorrow! If anyone has any suggestions for questions I can feed into a conversation tomorrow then let me know. However, while this guy is more of an acquaintance than a mate, I wouldn't want things to go sour, so the questions will have to be a little subtle!

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These were all business portfolios so I expect they are not small. [removed name] is around 40 or 50 properties mostly HMO's in London I think, but I could be wrong as that information comes from some time ago.

Edited: Schoolboy error! Added the guy's name to the post! Opps! Must really be off the boil today.

Guy, were they selling due to the new HMO regulations coming into force soon?

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Guy, were they selling due to the new HMO regulations coming into force soon?

That's a point, I'll ask if I get the chance. I know the bloke I'm meeting tomorrow was HMO focussed, but have no idea about the other two.

I'd be interested to know if they accepted below asking price!

Well if they've all sold by now then I'll have to take it all back and say the HPC is off! If they are mainly selling them as a job lot I don't think they'd have got an offer by now, but then again I know little about selling portfolios as I have never had one. Do you sell it in one go or as individual properties? I guess in the current market you'd hope for a job lot sale, but who knows!

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Guy, were they selling due to the new HMO regulations coming into force soon?

You might be wrong TTRTR...

It could have been the HMO regulations..

Or they could have been waiting to invest heavily into SIPPS..

Oh no.,,, SIPPS... We will never be able to buy a home..

bo hoo...

SIPPS...

they are going to really effect houseprices..

Ha... ha.. ha.. ha...

Oops.. I laughed so hard I think I had a little wee.. :):):)

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Smart money is getting out, if it is not out already.

I believe the smart money left in 2003/4 from the many conversations I have had with professional landlords. Those that have stayed in the market are those who bought very many years ago who can weather practically any storm with regard to HPs and who are probably looking at the negative CGT implications of offloading at the top of an absurdly overheated market.

It is the newbie BTLs who bought in the last 1-2 years who are facing potential ruin. TTRTR (much as we all love to malign him) has, by the sound of it, a balanced portfolio much of which was acquired when prices were sane. He will undoubtedly survive provided he desists from further purchases.

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TTRTR (much as we all love to malign him) has, by the sound of it, a balanced portfolio much of which was acquired when prices were sane. He will undoubtedly survive provided he desists from further purchases.

Although grateful for the role TTRTR has played on HPC, I have wondered about his motivation.

If he had (and I have no reason to doubt he has) a secure economic grounding in his properties and is in it for the 'long-term', surely he would just see a crash as being an opportunity to buy more properties?

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Smart money is getting out, if it is not out already.

The Dumbe money is still in, being joined by more newbies buying the advertised "soft landing".

-ie They believe VI spin

As I posted on HPC many months ago: A good mate of mine has worked for 3-4 years for a guy who has been in the Property game for 40+ years - owned anything between 500-1000 properties all over the uk.... dealing all the time - and very, very, very rich. .... on the back of the past booms over 40+ years when things were different - and not all the world and his wife had joined in like some massive game of bingo...

This guy realised things have reached the very top - "it is so totally obvious to anyone with one brain cell" ......"it's time to abandon a sinking ship", he said - "house prices have never ever been so absurd..."

WELL; 18 months ago - yes 18 months ago - he had finally off-loaded ALL his properties!! ALL of them - because, he said, ..... the market is absolutely crazy and stupid; he said he'd seen it all before and that he was simply amazed at the CRASS STUPIDITY of the amateur BTL type punters out there today.... - who could not see it for what it is: He said it is just SO simple: House prices as proportion of incomes were simply UNSUSTAINABLE. .....And how the BTL punters are going to get SERIOUSLY burned

..... and of course - we all know that BTL people are already in meltdown situation.....

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Although grateful for the role TTRTR has played on HPC, I have wondered about his motivation.

If he had (and I have no reason to doubt he has) a secure economic grounding in his properties and is in it for the 'long-term', surely he would just see a crash as being an opportunity to buy more properties?

Exactly. And the fact that he is still buying now at what he perceives to be BMV shows how flawed his thinking must be...

Remember: today's bargains are tomorrow's market price.

I know another developer who reminds me of TTRTR; he started buying in '98 and basically lucked out for a few years. Trouble is, he's intoxicated by the whole 'property is the only way' thing and can't stop buying places, refusing to accept that there will be a downturn at all. He is not the brightest button in the box and it may not surprise anyone that he's also an EA! :lol:

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Exactly. And the fact that he is still buying now at what he perceives to be BMV shows how flawed his thinking must be...

Remember: today's bargains are tomorrow's market price.

I know another developer who reminds me of TTRTR; he started buying in '98 and basically lucked out for a few years. Trouble is, he's intoxicated by the whole 'property is the only way' thing and can't stop buying places, refusing to accept that there will be a downturn at all. He is not the brightest button in the box and it may not surprise anyone that he's also an EA! :lol:

I know!!! Leave him be -- not worth even bothering to discuss anything.......... just a waste of energy! Just sit back and laugh!!!

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There is one friend of mine who I'd thought was a canny businesswoman and around April she told me that she had sold off all her BTLs. Then in September she told me that she was back in the market - apparently SIPPs would drive the market crazy. Saw her on Sunday and she'd bought a place at asking price without seeing it (ahead of three builders).

The point? Even smart money can call this wrong.

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There is one friend of mine who I'd thought was a canny businesswoman and around April she told me that she had sold off all her BTLs. Then in September she told me that she was back in the market - apparently SIPPs would drive the market crazy. Saw her on Sunday and she'd bought a place at asking price without seeing it (ahead of three builders).

The point? Even smart money can call this wrong.

I bet your friend is really fed up after GB binned SIPPS!

Guy,

What was the out come of your talk, especially after the SIPPS thing? :D

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Although grateful for the role TTRTR has played on HPC, I have wondered about his motivation.

If he had (and I have no reason to doubt he has) a secure economic grounding in his properties and is in it for the 'long-term', surely he would just see a crash as being an opportunity to buy more properties?

Indeed, and I wonder if LL is in the same boat.

I did notice despite her continuous exhortations to jump in and buy, that on the one thread where she detailed her own purchases that she hasn't bought anything since 1999!

Ah well, her motto might be 'do as I say ...'.

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Well I'm back from the match (light blues rule, at least in the second half anyway!!!!) and I did manage to get some answers, although I should stress that this is only one guy's view out of the 3 that I know of who have apparently sold/will sell.

He's been advised that in the current market he should break his portfolio into smaller lots and this is what he is going to do. He's got one lot coming up in Clapham so I'll keep an ear to the ground and post a link if/when I get the info.

He says he's selling as he got a whiff of the SIPPs U Turn, but that he would have sold next year anyway. He just brought his plans forward. However, I don't know whether to take the SIPPs comment with a serious pinch of salt. I would have thought the treasury would have been really tight lipped about that kind of an announcement.

The most suprising thing out of the whole day was that he pressed a crumpled copy of the 'First Time Buyer Beware' pamphlet into my hand and directed me to this site in a jokey kind of way! Apparently he though it might be my kind of thing as I'm a bit of an HPC bore in discussions!!! I doubt if he's visited here himself though, not that kind of lad, but who knows - hi mate, if you're out there! He is also reading the 'Bubbles and How to Survive Them' book (I forget who by). Times really have changed, although he still reckons that there will be no crash without a recession to trigger it.

Anyway I guess from now on I better watch what I say when I'm on here. I never realised that the word had spread so far and wide. I take back everything I said about not being able to influence the market through PR releases - good work guys!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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