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TheCountOfNowhere

Negative Inflation

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29406085

Aldi, the discount supermarket chain, has posted a big rise in full-year profits as its share of the British grocery market continues to grow.

The company said pre-tax profits rose 65.2% to £260.9m for the year to 31 December 2013.

Group turnover rose 35.7% to £5.27bn over the period.

Its market share grew from 3.1% to 4% in 2013, according to Kantar Worldpanel, and is now 4.8% after a continued strong performance in 2014.

"We keep prices constantly low while keeping product quality consistently high, which is exactly what shoppers want," said Roman Heini, Aldi's UK group managing director.

How long before one of the big 5 break ranks and cuts prices on the food they sell?

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Tesco seems to having a sell off. I am not sure if it is a real attempt at discounting or a fire sale, but around here they are awash with special offers, much more than is usual.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29406085

How long before one of the big 5 break ranks and cuts prices on the food they sell?

Well, it wont be asda IMHO.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2752264/Supermarket-giant-Asda-warn-Scottish-shoppers-pay-price-independence-higher-costs-checkout.html

I no longer shop in Asda since this threatened this.

Lest we forget,

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29406085

How long before one of the big 5 break ranks and cuts prices on the food they sell?

Meanwhile annual food price inflation at 0.3% in August but it will go negative in the coming months as artificial support to Uk farmers have been undo by the Europena food mountain building up at the locked gates to Russia. Milk prices for one are collapsing.

http://www.bakeryinfo.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/13097/Food_inflation_at_record_low.html

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29419259

"

Petrol prices cut by three UK supermarkets"

Is it because it saves them money if you use your own car/transport to drive to them to pick and buy their products, can carry more so can buy more....it is in their interest all our interests that the price has fallen....but that was weeks ago, takes longer to drop than to rise. ;)

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Houses not looking good as an inflationary hedge. Going to be difficult to justify today's ball crunching property valuations unless we can bloody well find some inflation from somewhere...the central banks are doing their damndest to find some. Otherwise we will go Japanese.

Edited by crashmonitor

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The oil price has dropped by about 15% recently and the chart has one of those nasty rolling over patterns reminiscent of Black Monday in October 1987 when the stockmarket went into freefall.

On top of that in his conference speech yesterday Chancellor Osborne announced economic policies in the approach to the general election and they are so bad for the UK economy that immediately after hearing his speech the supermarkets started to panic.

Edited by billybong

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Houses not looking good as an inflationary hedge. Going to be difficult to justify today's ball crunching property valuations unless we can bloody well found some inflation from somewhere...the central banks are doing their damndest to find some. Otherwise we will go Japanese.

Wage inflation is what is required, but there are too many factors working against it.

The real problem is the monetry and banking system that required inflation.

Government are trying to keep the old system alive via inflation, when they really need to reform the system.

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Not really as things were meant to play out this year. As I have just mentioned on the gold thread..commodities under pressure and the dollar crucifying all comers..gold, oil, pesos and roubles. From the UKs point of view, the best we could hope for in keeping the wolf from the door, where the dollar goes its lap dog the pound follows.

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Houses not looking good as an inflationary hedge. Going to be difficult to justify today's ball crunching property valuations unless we can bloody well find some inflation from somewhere...the central banks are doing their damndest to find some. Otherwise we will go Japanese.

Agreed, but your secondary theory part is wrong, imo. Then again, perhaps it's partly correct on a longer view..... falling inflation puts pressure on some companies who've expanded/debt in pursuit of all profits, and they have to let people go/cut wages/close outlets... putting crazy real estate valuations under pressure, whilst selling off parts of their businesses to other market participants.

So it's ok to have rampant house price inflation and the VI laughing, and non owners squeezed against these crazy prices, but not asset price deflation? We need x10 Japan deflation with real estate.

I don't see any salary inflation* in our future for years to come, and that's the only kind of inflation that boosts house prices. Inflation in everything else (food, energy, medical) just takes away from the money people have to spend on housing.

(*Wage inflation/increasing lending multiples... + according to many a hpcer... 'smart money' blowing all their savings and doubling down on investment property at prices even at £2m+ in London, to rent to younger people, praying that savers are going to get wiped out. Not satisfied that in some instances, their own homes are worth £2m+ in this market, Won't be long until all the victim excuses come out for them, as they lose all their properties, and others buy them at super low prices.)

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This is competition. Not deflation. Not negative inflation. The price of one commodity in the basket of goods going down (ever so slightly) may have an effect on inflation, depending largely on its weighting, but I don't see this as significant and I'm calling BS on the deflationistas

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This is competition. Not deflation. Not negative inflation. The price of one commodity in the basket of goods going down (ever so slightly) may have an effect on inflation, depending largely on its weighting, but I don't see this as significant and I'm calling BS on the deflationistas

+1

Yes competition from structural change in the market. Price sensitive consumers going to discounters and high end, service quality sensitive customers going to Ocado.

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In 1944, the NYT daily cost 3cents. According to inflation calculator it should cost 41cents today.

Actually costs $2.50.

Only a bit more than 6 times out...

But the quality of journalism is 6x better now, so actually the calculator is correct. ;)

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This is competition. Not deflation. Not negative inflation. The price of one commodity in the basket of goods going down (ever so slightly) may have an effect on inflation, depending largely on its weighting, but I don't see this as significant and I'm calling BS on the deflationistas

Yup.

Earnings v CPI

Commodities

Recent commodities

Are you indeed?

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Wage inflation is what is required, but there are too many factors working against it.

The real problem is the monetry and banking system that required inflation.

Government are trying to keep the old system alive via inflation, when they really need to reform the system.

Spot on with that summary, Like all 'Schemes' they always reach an end point, which is where we are right now.

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Spot on with that summary, Like all 'Schemes' they always reach an end point, which is where we are right now.

The scheme is dead, long live the scheme

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In 1944, the NYT daily cost 3cents. According to inflation calculator it should cost 41cents today.

Actually costs $2.50.

Only a bit more than 6 times out...

I note in 1933 that a Pye radio cost £20 and it was bloody crap...in 2014 my DAB radio cost £20 and it wasn't crap. Guess we could always pick up a Metro newspaper.

Edited by crashmonitor

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