The Preacherman Posted September 30, 2014 Share Posted September 30, 2014 Q3 change for London +0.9%. Quarterly regional report here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Oops double post A definite turn. The big question is...will it be allowed to continue to collapse. Me thinks this time it's a YES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble & Squeak Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 A definite turn. The big question is...will it be allowed to continue to collapse. Me thinks this time it's a YES. there is no time left to come up with and implement new schemes to prop it up before the next election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Obviously an anomaly caused by uncertainty due to the referendum in Scotland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Obviously an anomaly caused by uncertainty due to the referendum in Scotland. Don't forget the terrible weather and global warming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankstersparadise Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Don't forget the terrible weather and global warming. ISIS, Russia, Ebola.....all clear factors too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ray Valentine Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 ISIS, Russia, Ebola.....all clear factors too. Don't forget uncertainty over the X-Factor results too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Don't forget uncertainty over the X-Factor results too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The October Rightmove report is going to be interesting, just a couple of weeks to wait for that forward indicator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ray Valentine Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The October Rightmove report is going to be interesting, just a couple of weeks to wait for that forward indicator. It'll probably be slightly up, though after the big fall a couple of months back who knows. My feeling is that the next month or so will see small rises in the indexes before hitting a wall leading up to Christmas followed by a slowly falling market from there on in, leading up to the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 The October Rightmove report is going to be interesting, just a couple of weeks to wait for that forward indicator.If anything it will indicate how much of the news of these falls is reaching the general public. I've just seen another write up of yesterday's Nationwide data, which shamelessly plays up the quarterly figure and ignores the first MoM fall since early 2013, so I'm not holding my breath. News of August's Land Reg HPI fest has filtered through (but not news of the three-month lag). So, for the next RM update, I am expecting the Delusion Index between vendor expectations and actual sold prices to 'soar' however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble & Squeak Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The October Rightmove report is going to be interesting, just a couple of weeks to wait for that forward indicator. it will have to go up by over 10% just to maintain the YoY average. can't see that happening. i've been keeping a tally on the percentage of price cuts to entries in a handful of london postcodes for the last few months: May - 10.34%, June - 13.23%, July - 19.01%, August - 21.03%, Sept - 24.37%. this week i've seen a glut of price cuts. could be EAs getting worried about the nationwide figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 (edited) Early days yet but any sustained plateau now would mean this time really is different. We have just about got out of a seven year trough (2007-2014) in which prices are about back to the previous peak. Exiting troughs in every other housing cycle has been followed by maximum velocity going forward.....think 1998-2003. This time (and after seven painful years of trying to clamber out of the trough) its starting to look like escape velocity is in doubt. No historical precedent....trough exits have always been followed by a new taller peak forming in nominal terms at least. Edited October 1, 2014 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluegnu Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Early days yet but any sustained plateau now would mean this time really is different. We have just about got out of a seven year trough (2007-2014) in which prices are about back to the previous peak. Exiting troughs in every other housing cycle has been followed by maximum velocity going forward.....think 1998-2003. This time (and after seven painful years of trying to clamber out of the trough) its starting to look like escape velocity is in doubt. No historical precedent....trough exits have always been followed by a new taller peak forming in nominal terms at least. I'm probably slow on the uptake here but I recently had a 'lightbulb moment' looking at the history graph of UK base rates and realising that the past quarter of a century's HPI could simply be the product of falling interest rates (15% in late 80's down to 0.5% present day)- Joe Public being able to borrow more and more money as time goes on and paying ever increasing house prices. Sellers get a double win - increased equity from the 'profit' they've just made and re-mortgaging at a lower rate. That's where the money came from - falling interest rates. Rinse and repeat and we end up where we are today. If my amateurish and naive interpretation is correct we now have a problem with base rates at practically zero - they can't fall any more. Folks in the future won't be able to borrow more money than today, it'll be either roughly the same as today or when interest rates start to rise they'll only be able to borrow less. Long term HPI as we've seen over the last couple of decades can't happen 'cos folks won't have any more money, the mechanism that has funded the past 25 years of HPI is now dead. I'm now wondering if prices will increase in the short term as the market catches up with the super low rates but will ultimately hit an affordability ceiling and stop, just like we're now seeing in London. And when they do hit this limit - that's it! Unless another source of funding is created that has the same effect as falling interest rates it's game over. Prices will simply stagnate until rates move - and they can only move one way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ray Valentine Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I'm probably slow on the uptake here but I recently had a 'lightbulb moment' looking at the history graph of UK base rates and realising that the past quarter of a century's HPI could simply be the product of falling interest rates (15% in late 80's down to 0.5% present day)- Joe Public being able to borrow more and more money as time goes on and paying ever increasing house prices. Sellers get a double win - increased equity from the 'profit' they've just made and re-mortgaging at a lower rate. That's where the money came from - falling interest rates. Rinse and repeat and we end up where we are today. If my amateurish and naive interpretation is correct we now have a problem with base rates at practically zero - they can't fall any more. Folks in the future won't be able to borrow more money than today, it'll be either roughly the same as today or when interest rates start to rise they'll only be able to borrow less. Long term HPI as we've seen over the last couple of decades can't happen 'cos folks won't have any more money, the mechanism that has funded the past 25 years of HPI is now dead. I'm now wondering if prices will increase in the short term as the market catches up with the super low rates but will ultimately hit an affordability ceiling and stop, just like we're now seeing in London. And when they do hit this limit - that's it! Unless another source of funding is created that has the same effect as falling interest rates it's game over. Prices will simply stagnate until rates move - and they can only move one way! You're more or less correct. You may be behind the curve as regards to readers of this site but your thinking is well ahead of the curve as regards the average punter out there currently bidding up prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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