repetitive bleats Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Its different and a change. I doubt it. Luckily I doubt if we will ever find out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geezer466 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 I think it's worth noting that most of these constituencies are pretty similar. Thurrock, North Thanet, South Thanet, Boston and Skegness, and Clacton are all decaying seaside towns in the east of England full of not-particularly-affluent older white people. There are not enough constituencies like that in the UK to support a new party of government. Eastleigh is an unusual example of a 4 way split in which UKIP might be able to slip through with 20-odd percent of the vote if the mainstream vote is split evenly between LibLabCon. Farage also mentioned Rotherham, which is full of disaffected working class Labour voters but which UKIP are not leading in. I think it's worth keeping some perspective on the UKIP phenomenon. Of course 5 MPs in 2015 would be a step forward for UKIP from where they are now, but there are Northern Irish parties with more seats than that. If UKIP get a result like that they will sit powerlessly with the nationalists as a kind of east of England SNP/Plaid Cymru. Clearly he has chosen what figures he wants to display one would presume these are his 'best clothes'. That said Rotherham is significant and if is the failure of the Labour authorities which are swinging it for him then this will not be confined just to Rotherham. Labour lost their 3rd safest seat to the SNP in a by election in 2008. It would be rash to write all this off as guff. The three by elections Clacton, Middleton and Heywood and Rochester and Strood will be very revealing. Who will write off UKIP if they take all three of those seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Its different and a change. New ideas a lot of which have not yet been tried. It cannot be any worse than the alternatives. What are these fresh new ideas? Blaming immigrants for everything? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallingAwake Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 I think it's worth noting that most of these constituencies are pretty similar. Thurrock, North Thanet, South Thanet, Boston and Skegness, and Clacton are all decaying seaside towns in the east of England full of not-particularly-affluent older white people. There are not enough constituencies like that in the UK to support a new party of government. Eastleigh is an unusual example of a 4 way split in which UKIP might be able to slip through with 20-odd percent of the vote if the mainstream vote is split evenly between LibLabCon. Farage also mentioned Rotherham, which is full of disaffected working class Labour voters but which UKIP are not leading in. I think it's worth keeping some perspective on the UKIP phenomenon. Of course 5 MPs in 2015 would be a step forward for UKIP from where they are now, but there are Northern Irish parties with more seats than that. If UKIP get a result like that they will sit powerlessly with the nationalists as a kind of east of England SNP/Plaid Cymru. Oh I agree. I don't expect them to miraculously sweep to power in the space of a year, clean up the bankers and cure cancer. At the same time, I think those stats show how things can change quite fast. As campervanman likes to point out, at the moment UKIP are geared towards older people. But those are also the people who are most likely to vote! So if there's a swing to UKIP, it may be more pronounced because of this. What they need to do now is draw in younger people, and former Labour supporters. I think that's quite achievable, given that the young are being screwed by the LibDems and Cons, and Labour don't necessarily represent the working person any more. Sadly, politics is partly about what you can offer the electorate, and so I think their promise to raise the Income Tax threshold to £13.5k (taking out those who earn minimum wage) was very shrewd, and shows that they are taking the whole political process more seriously. I think, within an election cycle, they could at least have a chance of replacing the LibDems as the 3rd political party, which in turn will make them think more carefully about how to appeal to younger voters and Labour supporters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallingAwake Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 What are these fresh new ideas? Blaming immigrants for everything? Ah, Straw Man again. They are not "blaming immigrants for everything". Nice try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallingAwake Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 (edited) What are these fresh new ideas? Blaming immigrants for everything? Gordon? Is that you? Edited September 27, 2014 by FallingAwake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
repetitive bleats Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 (edited) What they need to do now is draw in younger people. Absolutely not going to happen. In the same way that young people aren't about to start buying the Daily Express or going on holiday to bongo bongo land and complaining about having to eat foreign muck. Edited September 27, 2014 by repetitive bleats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallingAwake Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Absolutely not going to happen. In the same way that young people aren't about to start buying the Daily Express or going on holiday to bongo bongo land and having to eat foreign muck. Well then, if young people want to make themselves politically irrelevant, that's their choice. There's enough of them to make a difference if they were motivated enough. (Compare the Scottish Referendum turnout.) But I doubt they'll be returning to the LibDems in droves any time soon. Personally, I think the smartest thing the young could do would be to join UKIP en masse. They would then give themselves a much bigger chance of steering or at least influencing UKIP policy. I think that would be much more achievable than trying to do that with Labour or Conservative. Maybe not going to happen, sure. But the opportunity is there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TheBlueCat Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Absolutely not going to happen. In the same way that young people aren't about to start buying the Daily Express or going on holiday to bongo bongo land and complaining about having to eat foreign muck. It's pretty clear Farage gets that and I suspect the new UKIP policy of higher rates of VAT on luxury items is part of his plan to address it. It's an interesting strategy of adding some quite left wing policies impacting a relatively small number of people unlikely to care that much (or ever to vote UKIP either) to a broadly quite right wing agenda. My usual disclaimer: I am not a UKIP supporter and will not be voting for them at any point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
repetitive bleats Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Well then, if young people want to make themselves politically irrelevant, that's their choice. Why wouldn't they vote Green? They actually are radically different and last time I looked, unlike UKIP, they even had an MP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economic Exile Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 It's 8 months to the election so anything can happen. SNP membership in scotland has increased by 39000+ since the referendum. I think the referendum has created an interest in politics in many people over the uk. I'm sensing a lot of increasing dissatisfaction in the country and people will vote for change. I think that's why 45% voted yes in scotland. We have a new grass roots movement in scotland and from what I've seen in my rural area they're mainly decent people who want a better society. My guess is that snp will retain power and the independence movement will grow. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing well I don't know but it seems to be happening. Voting liblabcon isn't going to change anything. Voting ukip may not change anything but it sure will get westminster rattled if they make progress. My view is that the current state of affairs with corruption, waste of resources, high basic living costs, lack of opportunities and social mobility, decreasing pay etc will sway people to vote for anything other than liblabcon. At least politics isn't boring at the moment! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybernoid Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 I think it's worth keeping some perspective on the UKIP phenomenon. Of course 5 MPs in 2015 would be a step forward for UKIP from where they are now, but there are Northern Irish parties with more seats than that. If UKIP get a result like that they will sit powerlessly with the nationalists as a kind of east of England SNP/Plaid Cymru. I don't think thats their point, they know they won't get power. They serve as a voice. They rattle the established parties and make them take notice of why people are voting for ukip. The main parties will then adjust their offering to better match what the electorate actually want in order to get back some of those voters. Ultimately ukip policies will be enacted in a watered down form, but not by ukip. They would be happy with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blod Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Ah, Straw Man again. They are not "blaming immigrants for everything". Nice try. That's like people saying they hate Europe. UKIP hate the EU not Europe, bloody Farage is married to a German. The twisting of the various parties is good sport to watch, you can see the Common Purpose trolls squirming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Why wouldn't they vote Green? They actually are radically different and last time I looked, unlike UKIP, they even had an MP. Yes, the Greens are a more obvious alternative for the young than UKIP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallingAwake Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Yes, the Greens are a more obvious alternative for the young than UKIP. Why would you say a more "obvious" alternative? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Farage, a bankster who consorts with Murdoch. Yawn! He represents a false choice, and the people are duped, yet again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EUBanana Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Absolutely not going to happen. In the same way that young people aren't about to start buying the Daily Express or going on holiday to bongo bongo land and complaining about having to eat foreign muck. The youngest guy at work where I am is a UKIPper, he's 24? Young enough? I have no idea why people talk up the Greens, Caroline Lucas is a complete nut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economic Exile Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 All I would say is that 'Hope' was considered an evil in the story of Pandora's Box.... Yes. But throughout history I assume that many have hoped and tried to change things to make it better. But worldwide imo things don't look too hopeful overall for humanity creating a world where basic needs are met and populations are satisfied. I'm very pessimistic about the future! My life consists of trying to sit back and observe the show as it unfolds and getting out into the wilds of nature as much as I can to appreciate the beautiful side of life. Regardless of what's said about people voting for snp or ukip my guess is that the votes for these parties will increase because of dissatisfaction in the population and hope for change. Whether it's a good thing or a bad thing time will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Why would anyone in Rotherham still vote Labour? Because if they don't their husbands will have them killed and shipped abck to Pakistan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
repetitive bleats Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 The youngest guy at work where I am is a UKIPper, he's 24? Young enough? I have no idea why people talk up the Greens, Caroline Lucas is a complete nut. Well that doesn't say much for the schools round where you live considering the recognised correlation between UKIP voting and lack of education. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wherebee Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Well that doesn't say much for the schools round where you live considering the recognised correlation between UKIP voting and lack of education. No - that quote about education and UKIP voters was a direct lie by the BBC and proved as such. Do I really have to go and dig it out AGAIN? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
repetitive bleats Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 (edited) No - that quote about education and UKIP voters was a direct lie by the BBC and proved as such. Do I really have to go and dig it out AGAIN? If you could. I'd love to read anything you have that contradicts various independent polls (including yougov) that clearly show the average UKIP voter is over 50 and most likely to have finished their education at 16 or under. Edited September 28, 2014 by repetitive bleats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 (edited) Whatever their education if they voted years ago they quite likely voted Lib, Lab or Con - now they're voting UKIP. Edited September 28, 2014 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 (edited) From the UKIP web site: http:// www.ukip.org/great_grandson_of_labour_co_founder_stands_for_ukip Great grandson of Labour co founder stands for UKIPIn the Manning Mills district of Bradford, some 120 years ago, the great grandfather of UKIP Parliamentary Candidate Blair Smillie, stood beside Kier Hardie making his famous speech which was to launch the Labour Party. History was in the making as Kier Hardie would soon become the first ever Independent Labour MP and again Robert Smillie would be by his side. At the UKIP party conference held in the present Labour Leader’s constituency Blair Smillie will tell the delegates why he lost faith in Labour today and will launch his career as a Parliamentary Candidate for the North Wales constituency of Alyn and Deeside. Edited September 28, 2014 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qetesuesi Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 If you could. I'd love to read anything you have that contradicts various independent polls (including yougov) that clearly show the average UKIP voter is over 50 and most likely to have finished their education at 16 or under. Of course you do realise, don't you, that there's a strong correlation between your present age and the age at which you finished education. The older you are, the less likely (MUCH less likely) you are to have gone to uni. Nothing whatsoever to do with your intelligence. Have the clever statisticians at the polling companies allowed for this virtual aliasing effect? Not to mention that back then, people who left school at 16 generally had better literacy and numeracy than many young folks at unis today (witness remedial catch-up classes even at Oxbridge). Also: when you say "lack of education", you are aware, aren't you, that the unis in general have been left-wing dominated for decades? The left, and only the left, on campuses acts to censor e.g. visiting speakers straying from the PC party line, and has been doing this since at least my time there (almost 30 years ago). Hence in the actual UK context, "lack of education" could just as well mean "freedom from brainwashing".... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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