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Second Conservative Mp Defects To Ukip ++B R E A K I N G++


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Guest Jemmy Button

Good post. Not sure Cameron is capable of anything other than short term knee jerk thought though

Labour faced down their extremists - Derek hatton & Co. Cameron should do the same, but has instead chosen to react with knee jerk jingoist nonsense. At heart he's a coward. He'll be ousted soon enough.

Labour faced down their extremists alright, and ended up with the war criminal Tony Bliar who, effectively, fecked up the whole country. We would have been better off with the 'extremists'!

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If only Scotland had voted Yes, or the AV vote had gone through. It seems no matter who wins elections the establishment wins every vote that matters.

If Scotland had voted Yes, it would have destroyed the Tories' only reason for not voting UKIP, which they parrot every time they suffer a defection.

If the AV vote had gone through, UKIP would be set to win still more seats than at present. (E.g. in Rotherham, as per Farage's poll results, if Labour were only a sliver ahead of UKIP in the first round, and below 50%, imagine how the remaining Tories would swing behind UKIP to knock Labour out in the AV runoff.

By the way: people who hold a different policy opinion from you aren't thereby automatically nutters.

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I think the extreme anger against politicians is in a large part because national governments now have so little real power to change the big things because of globalisation etc. I don't think leaving the EU will change that. People might be happy for a few months but then reality will dawn - maybe that in itself will be a wake up moment.

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UKIP's identity is in it's name - the United Kingdom Independence Party. Increasing numbers of people are starting to vote for that.

Yes, that works in an ant-EU context. But as for 'increasing numbers of voters are starting to vote that', hmmmm.

A recent polling analysis (I think in Clacton) found that only 13% of would-be UKIP voters were in fact putting their anti-EU stance - and raison d'être - at the top of the list.

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If Scotland had voted Yes, it would have destroyed the Tories' only reason for not voting UKIP, which they parrot every time they suffer a defection.

If the AV vote had gone through, UKIP would be set to win still more seats than at present. (E.g. in Rotherham, as per Farage's poll results, if Labour were only a sliver ahead of UKIP in the first round, and below 50%, imagine how the remaining Tories would swing behind UKIP to knock Labour out in the AV runoff.

By the way: people who hold a different policy opinion from you aren't thereby automatically nutters.

Not really seeing the drawback in either of those scenarios. Both of them would have shaken up politics. Better UKIP than the current set of 'politics by focus group' middle management.

People holding different policy opinions aren't nutters. People who blame gay marriage for floods are.

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I think the extreme anger against politicians is in a large part because national governments now have so little real power to change the big things because of globalisation etc. I don't think leaving the EU will change that. People might be happy for a few months but then reality will dawn - maybe that in itself will be a wake up moment.

In a democracy, we are supposed to be able to choose how much globalisation we do or don't want.

Otherwise, where's my vote for elections to the Global Senate?

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The run up to the election is turning out to be more interesting than I'd hoped.

Newmark's demise is an absolutely pricesless leftfield curveball. Great to see Shapps/Stockheath/Green popping up with his own brand of crisis management as well, every time he opens his mouth I have to remind myself that Cameron employs this guy as party chairman.

Here's Newmark on house price bubble denying with Merryn Somerset-Webb.

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Grant Shapps/Michael Green on BBC News now calling Mark Reckless a liar and saying that "there are only two options for the general election, David Cameron or Ed Milidand, voting for anything else, particularly UKIP is a vote for Ed Miliband".

What Shapps has just said will make loads of people vote UKIP. People don't like being told how they should vote - particularly not by odious men like Shapps.

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The run up to the election is turning out to be more interesting than I'd hoped.

Unfortunately I think it's a case of all sound and fury signifying nothing. Under the current constitution the government in 2015 will be formed from some combination of the three main parties. There will no doubt be a big surge in votes for UKIP/SNP/Plaid Cymru/Green and probably there will be a drop in turnout too, but the new government will simply say "the British people have spoken and they agree with us, we are the new government with a democratic mandate to govern, back in your boxes until 2020 plebs". The Establishment will write off the surge in fourth party votes and abstentions as an "anti-politics protest vote" caused by temporary economic circumstances. I think we will probably need two general elections in a row in which the FPTP constituency system clearly gives a very unrepresentative outcome for there to be serious pressure for constitutional reform, and without constitutional reform there will be no noticeable change in the policies enacted at Westminster.

Edited by Dorkins
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Unfortunately I think it's a case of all sound and fury signifying nothing. Under the current constitution the government in 2015 will be formed from some combination of the three main parties. There will no doubt be a big surge in votes for UKIP/SNP/Plaid Cymru/Green and probably there will be a drop in turnout too, but the new government will simply say "the British people have spoken and they agree with us, we are the new government with a democratic mandate to govern, back in your boxes until 2020 plebs". The Establishment will write off the surge in fourth party votes and abstentions as an "anti-politics protest vote" caused by temporary economic circumstances. I think we will probably need two general elections in a row in which the FPTP constituency system clearly gives a very unrepresentative outcome for there to be serious pressure for constitutional reform, and without constitutional reform there will be no noticeable change in the policies enacted at Westminster.

Maybe, but there are certainly opportunities for change on the horizon. Whether they result in anything is another matter, but the fact they exist is a start. The Conservative Party is approaching an existential crisis having lost 100 members a day for 50 years straight, a rate that cannot continue for the next parliament without a total wipeout. The party has to change, and a wholesale clearout ought to be a realistic expectation in the event of defeat in May(An outcome I feel is all but assured). Lib Dems have a similar situation approaching, Clegg is not a credible leader for the party anymore, although I expect they will retain some seats I think their position will be such that a coalition would be pretty unlikely unless it is very finely balanced.

I don't have much faith that a Labour Govt. has the will or appetite to do the right thing on housing, their policy position regarding private rented sector is very poor but it is not impossible to change it prior to May. Hopefully I've done something useful to help highlight flaws in their position, but time will tell whether it has fallen on deaf ears or not.

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MSW talking absolute sense, as usual. Fantastic.

Well, great conversation for a mainstream programme, but many years too late unfortunately. Most adult sheeple have signed up in some way to the debt bubble and are going to feel the hurt as it continues to pop. The bit about "keep an eye out to see these bubbles before they develop" is hilarious, use your telescope next time chaps, spot them before they make land!

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Maybe, but there are certainly opportunities for change on the horizon. Whether they result in anything is another matter, but the fact they exist is a start. The Conservative Party is approaching an existential crisis having lost 100 members a day for 50 years straight, a rate that cannot continue for the next parliament without a total wipeout. The party has to change, and a wholesale clearout ought to be a realistic expectation in the event of defeat in May(An outcome I feel is all but assured). Lib Dems have a similar situation approaching, Clegg is not a credible leader for the party anymore, although I expect they will retain some seats I think their position will be such that a coalition would be pretty unlikely unless it is very finely balanced.

I don't have much faith that a Labour Govt. has the will or appetite to do the right thing on housing, their policy position regarding private rented sector is very poor but it is not impossible to change it prior to May. Hopefully I've done something useful to help highlight flaws in their position, but time will tell whether it has fallen on deaf ears or not.

I agree that it's looking hard for Cameron to continue as PM after the next election. My guess is the national vote split in 2015 will be something highly inconclusive like 32% Lab, 32% Con, 10% LD, 25% others which would allow Labour to form a government with a tiny majority or a Lab-LD coalition with a weak majority. Clegg resigns and is replaced by Cable, Cameron resigns and is replaced by Boris or George. Clegg and Cameron get plum jobs in the City and spend the rest of their lives doing Tony Blair "je ne regrette rien" tribute acts. Miliband "leads" a rudderless government that stumbles its way unhappily through 5 bad economic years (think Gordon Brown* but for 60 months instead of 22) until a weary electorate mercifully puts it down in 2020. And then?

We may be witnessing the death of the red-blue 2 party system that has dominated UK politics since the 1930s. Interestingly it isn't being replaced by the red-blue-yellow 3 party system of Paddy Ashdown's fantasies.

*Fun fact - Ed Miliband was Gordon Brown's special adviser from 1994-2002.

Edited by Dorkins
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Yes, that works in an ant-EU context. But as for 'increasing numbers of voters are starting to vote that', hmmmm.

A recent polling analysis (I think in Clacton) found that only 13% of would-be UKIP voters were in fact putting their anti-EU stance - and raison d'être - at the top of the list.

Assuming it's the same analysis (the Survation poll) 54% said Britain should leave the eu so that would accord with UKIP's independence identity.

http://

www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/08/30/ukip-has-44-lead-in-clacton/

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I agree that it's looking hard for Cameron to continue as PM after the next election. My guess is the national vote split in 2015 will be something highly inconclusive like 32% Lab, 32% Con, 10% LD, 25% others which would allow Labour to form a government with a tiny majority or a Lab-LD coalition with a weak majority. Clegg resigns and is replaced by Cable, Cameron resigns and is replaced by Boris or George. Clegg and Cameron get plum jobs in the City and spend the rest of their lives doing Tony Blair "je ne regrette rien" tribute acts. Miliband "leads" a rudderless government that stumbles its way unhappily through 5 bad economic years (think Gordon Brown* but for 60 months instead of 22) until a weary electorate mercifully puts it down in 2020. And then?

We may be witnessing the death of the red-blue 2 party system that has dominated UK politics since the 1930s. Interestingly it isn't being replaced by the red-blue-yellow 3 party system of Paddy Ashdown's fantasies.

*Fun fact - Ed Miliband was Gordon Brown's special adviser from 1994-2002.

If I were to place a bet now I'd say a Labour majority of about 50, big enough to ride out decent rebellions on contentious issues. I think Conservative MPs with majorities over Labour of under 3,000 will mostly lose their seats. Short of something extraordinary I can't see how Cameron can possibly win from here. The team around him is poor, the lines of attack on UKIP are about two years behind events, this is Shapps's responsibility and I think he is being exposed as not up to the task, quite apart from being damaged goods as far as his personal credibility is concerned. A suicidal appointment by Cameron imo, whos premiership is surely in the end game now. Crap conference leading into a shambolic byelection campaign, few weeks of fallout from that and it's the festive season. The dissolution of the coalition may or may not be a smooth affair in the new year and before we know it the campaigning is underway.

And that's assuming no more defections, and everyone keeps their cocks in their pyjamas between now and then too.

Edited by Joan of The Tower
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The problem with UKIP is that Farage talks sense, but the wider party is drawn from the nutcase rightwing fringe of Conservatives who are unhappy with Cameron.

So you have a bunch of crazy NIMBYs who would probably like to bring back hanging, blame gay marriage for meteorological events, and who are doing quite well out of house price inflation, thank you very much, led by perhaps the only high-profile politician who is willing to stand up and just say what he believes (and what half the country is thinking).

I considered voting UKIP because they are the only dissenting voice in politics at the moment (the other three parties agree on everything). But the nutters in the party made it impossible.

The disproportionate amount of press coverage that UKIP get as compared to the Green party - the only other viable 'fourth party' choice - is criminal.

If only Scotland had voted Yes, or the AV vote had gone through. It seems no matter who wins elections the establishment wins every vote that matters.

I think a lot of people in England are quietly disappointed that the Scots didnt take the opportunity to stick one to the establishment, so now they are coming around to the idea of doing it themselves by voting UKIP, even if by some miracle UKIP managed to get a majority and we had 5 years of complete mismanaged chaos well, 1) it wouldnt be much worse than the alternatives and 2) the other parties might start to listen to what the electorate have been trying to tell them for the last 7 years or so - "sort out the housing issue".

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