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Second Conservative Mp Defects To Ukip ++B R E A K I N G++


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It really isn't. On 8th May 2015 the UK will have one of the following governments:

1. Labour majority

2. Labour-Lib Dem coalition

3. Conservative-Lib Dem coalition

4. Conservative majority

Any of these seem like something to look forward to?

No. But...

5. UKIP win several seats, which is possible, and then a Conservative-UKIP coalition, which is also possible (and which could be the last chance to slay the EU monster).

(I predict (or maybe hope) that the Lib Dems get slaughtered in May, and consequently will no longer be a viable coalition partner.)

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No. But...

5. UKIP win several seats, which is possible, and then a Conservative-UKIP coalition, which is also possible (and which could be the last chance to slay the EU monster).

(I predict (or maybe hope) that the Lib Dems get slaughtered in May, and consequently will no longer be a viable coalition partner.)

If Cameron had to choose between a coalition with UKIP that would give him a majority of less than 10 or another coalition with the Lib Dems that would give him a majority of 40 like he has now, he would choose the Lib Dems.

A Con-UKIP coalition with such a tiny majority would leave Cameron with almost no ability to lead. He would be held to ransom by the Conservative Eurosceptic Right even more than Major was.

UKIP need to be winning 30-50 seats in general elections to be a useful enough coalition partner to rival the Lib Dems. The chances of that happening in 2015 must be a million to one.

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So the anti establishment/ anti Westminster cult party, are happy to recruit the establishment?

Its possible UKIP serves a purpose if Cameron can decant all his right wing nutter/eurphobe members into it though.

Edited by aSecureTenant
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So the anti establishment/ anti Westminster cult party, are happy to recruit the establishment?

Haha, there is that.

UKIP on May 6th 2015: "We are the anti-Establishment party, we hate Westminster politics just like you do."

UKIP on May 8th 2015: "Please let us join your club Dave, go on, please, we promise we'll behave."

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If Cameron had to choose between a coalition with UKIP that would give him a majority of less than 10 or another coalition with the Lib Dems that would give him a majority of 40 like he has now, he would choose the Lib Dems.

A Con-UKIP coalition with such a tiny majority would leave Cameron with almost no ability to lead. He would be held to ransom by the Conservative Eurosceptic Right even more than Major was.

UKIP need to be winning 30-50 seats in general elections to be a useful enough coalition partner to rival the Lib Dems. The chances of that happening in 2015 must be a million to one.

What makes you think the Lib Dems will have more than a handful of MP's next time round? :rolleyes:

Clegg is seen as the worst of the worst over the tuition fees thing. The electorate have long memories..

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What makes you think the Lib Dems will have more than a handful of MP's next time round? :rolleyes:

The seats have got to go to somebody. Most Lib Dem marginals are two way Lib-Con fights. If the Lib Dems get down to sharing-a-cab numbers, that implies the Conservatives will have picked up most of their seats. in which case they probably wouldn't need a coalition partner at all.

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I think 'non grey' voters are starting to feel like Prince Charles.

I don't think that's true at all. Most of the under 40s I know see nothing of value for them in party politics, don't expect that to change and have just switched off from it completely. They aren't waiting for their turn to call the shots.

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If Cameron had to choose between a coalition with UKIP that would give him a majority of less than 10 or another coalition with the Lib Dems that would give him a majority of 40 like he has now, he would choose the Lib Dems.

A Con-UKIP coalition with such a tiny majority would leave Cameron with almost no ability to lead. He would be held to ransom by the Conservative Eurosceptic Right even more than Major was.

UKIP need to be winning 30-50 seats in general elections to be a useful enough coalition partner to rival the Lib Dems. The chances of that happening in 2015 must be a million to one.

You're assuming the Lib Dems will have roughly the same number of seats as they do now.

The Lib Dems had a relatively successful 2010 election - the fresh-faced pre-coalition Nick Clegg could do no wrong. However, 2015 won't be the same: tuition fees, the pro-EU stance, Farage's humiliation of Clegg in the European Election debates, pervert Lord Rennard still in the party... It all adds up to make the Lib Dems less popular than Michael Foot's Labour.

The Lib Dems may not be a viable coalition partner on May 6th. UKIP is going to throw a long-needed and interesting spanner in the works.

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UKIP get most of their votes from older voters.

For now, perhaps... but I think that will change as they grow more credible and mainstream (much, I should probably add, to your annoyance).

I think people who live in this country are looking more and more for big changes, and they know that Labour and the Conservatives basically represent more of the same. LibDems might have been a viable alternative, but for the student fees fiasco. It's a shame, I kinda wanted them to do well in 2010, because apart from his almost religious EUphoria, many of the LibDem policies seemed quite good.

But since shafting the students, students are now (if they can be bothered to vote!) probably going to channel their votes elsewhere. UKIP may be one of the recipients.

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You're assuming the Lib Dems will have roughly the same number of seats as they do now.

The Lib Dems had a relatively successful 2010 election - the fresh-faced pre-coalition Nick Clegg could do no wrong. However, 2015 won't be the same: tuition fees, the pro-EU stance, Farage's humiliation of Clegg in the European Election debates, pervert Lord Rennard still in the party... It all adds up to make the Lib Dems less popular than Michael Foot's Labour.

The Lib Dems may not be a viable coalition partner on May 6th. UKIP is going to throw a long-needed and interesting spanner in the works.

As I said above, because most Lib Dem marginals are two way Lib-Con fights, if the Lib Dems lose a lot of seats in 2015 it is likely that the Conservatives will be the ones that gained most of them. The sum of Conservative MPs plus Lib Dem MPs is probably not going to change much.

The chances of UKIP being a more viable coalition partner than the Lib Dems on May 8th 2015 are remote. UKIP will be doing well to win 5 seats, never mind double digits, and definitely not the 30-40 that you would want to give a coalition government with a working majority.

Edited by Dorkins
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As I said above, because most Lib Dem marginals are two way Lib-Con fights, if the Lib Dems lose a lot of seats in 2015 it is likely that the Conservatives will be the ones that gained most of them. The sum of Conservative MPs plus Lib Dem MPs is probably not going to change much.

The chances of UKIP being a more viable coalition partner than the Lib Dems on May 8th 2015 are remote. UKIP will be doing well to win 5 seats, never mind double digits, and definitely not the 30-40 that you would want to give a coalition government with a working majority.

I think it could be significantly more than 5 seats (they could have 2 seats before the election following the by-elections prompted by the defections).

I am, like you, speculating, but I find your "more of the same" rhetoric just depressing. (Not you personally; it's the idea of another Tory-LibDem coalition, or a Labour-LibDem coalition, that I find depressing.)

UK politics desperately needs a landscape change, and I'm hoping.

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I think it could be significantly more than 5 seats (they could have 2 seats before the election following the by-elections prompted by the defections).

I am, like you, speculating, but I find your "more of the same" rhetoric just depressing. (Not you personally; it's the idea of another Tory-LibDem coalition, or a Labour-LibDem coalition, that I find depressing.)

UK politics desperately needs a landscape change, and I'm hoping.

I just wish UKIP would tell these defectors to do one.

They should have more faith in their own candidates, rather than some no mark Tory that's just worried about his current majority.

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BREAKING

Tory MP Brooks Newmark has resigned in the last hour or so over a sex scandal that is due to be published in tomorrow's papers. Details are sketchy at the moment, but he's been sending nudey pics of himself to women on the internet.

Had to laugh at the idiot's title - Minister for Civil Society. :lol:

:lol: Never liked him. I'm sure he was on TV spouting pro-HPI stuff at one point.

I hope the photos are circulated. Will be good for a laugh!

Edited by Eddie_George
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Things are very confusing these days. Female celebrities have phones full of vain nudey shots in front of the mirror and we're supposed to be outraged someone's put them on the internet. A tabloid entraps a politician into sending them a nudey photo and we're supposed to be outraged.

I haven't got any nudey pictures of myself or anyone else on my phone but did send my girlfriend a picture of the dog doing something funny, a strange insect I found and a picture of a car tyre, so I knew what size to buy, should I be worried?

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It's very reminiscent of the period before the 1997 election with the Conservatives beset with sleaze, scandal and graft etc etc etc. Once it gained momentum their bad news was daily for months on end. Then there was stuff like arms to Iraq etc along with all the economic incompetence around Black Wednesday etc - to say the least.

Before the 2010 general election Cameron was portraying himself as another "straightforward kind of guy" like Blair liked to portray himself as - but now?

Edited by billybong
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