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Timak

September 2014 Thoughts, Feelings And Predictions Thread

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Housing in your area - current situation and what you think will happen.

Are you actively buying, searching or selling?

General ramblings

Housing in your area:

Cambridge. Market still insane, yes there are some drops of the most overpriced ones but everything else is selling for asking or above. The cheapest house (not leasehold, in need of rebuilding or shared equity) has now hit the 200k mark,

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32347176.html

Currently no hope of buying a larger house in this area.

Prices have to come down, I can't see that they were even sustainable in 2009-11 let alone at current levels. As I keep saying to people what has changed since 2011 that means houses are worth 100k or so more than they were then? Nobody has had a wage rise and the average local earnings are still nowhere near enough to pay the mortgages on the houses that are selling.

Are you actively buying, searching or selling?

Had house valued a month or so back. Pretty much as expected (is there any need for anything but unique properties) but I'm not prepared to pay an extra £250k to get an extra bedroom and a larger plot. Despite telling the estate agent I'm not selling they still phone weekly telling me I could miss out on my dream home if I don't sell now. I now block their calls!

General ramblings

Just had a few weeks in France. You can buy a serviced plot in the village I was in near Toulouse (where there were plenty of decently paid jobs) for £40k. Houses seemed roughly half the price of those in the UK. You would be far better off in terms of lifestyle on £20k a year in France than in the UK. Yet all we ever see in the UK press is stories of the terrible French economy. What is the economy for exactly?

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Friends of mine were sending me photos of houses for sale in EA windows from the likes of the Cotswolds, Cornwall and Dorset in the past 4 weeks - many of them were your typical chocolate box picture of a rose coloured cottage.

They were sending them because the asking prices were much less than what they are asking round my way for 1970's grey cement boxes. The ultra low IRs have allowed the local EAs to ramp and ramp and ramp asking prices IMPO.

But since mid August I have seen loads of asking price reductions and, more fun, loads of STCs fall through. Chatting with some EAs this week they are in denial between the banks refusing mortgages and the valuations they are giving to sellers. As a result, I think I am just faced with a stalemate.

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The ripple has broken out of the home counties and I think we will get the big numbers in Q4...possibly +5% in some of the regions and giving annualised totals of 10-12.5%.

This could be the swan song, the MPC have behaved like complete idiots not raising interest rates to stop this.

Thereafter I can see a bit of upward drift into 2015 and then probably stagnation.

There really isn't much fuel out there....CPI and wages are drifting to zero growth. Suddenly taking on a big mortgage is going to look like a very stupid thing cometh the deflation/stagnation....it took the Japanense quite a time to realise that debt and no inflation don't mix and they are more numerate than us.

Some of the bulls on here are desperate for inflation...in particular RK who has me on ignore.......he is indeed very numerate and realises the danger to HPI if there is no consumer inflation to hedge. Also the fact that the only with money destruction do you also have debt destruction....and mortgage holders are praying for debt destruction.

Edited by crashmonitor

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North Worcs and W Mids more generally.

Supply falling sharply.

High end (400k and upwards) properties are able to hold out for ABOVE asking price due to low supply. Selling in the end for above real 2007 peak.

Starting to see this affect 150-250 band with significant rises, again because of low supply.

Anything decent sells quickly for asking or above. Anything with any problems sits around for years.

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I stopped looking at what houses cost in my area (N London/Herts) 4 or 5 years ago when I realised that despite earning a decent wage, if I ever wanted to buy an averageish house in this area during my lifetime two things were going to have to happen: (1) I was going to have to not spunk all my savings and future earnings on a 1 bedroom flat and (2) there was going to need to be an almost qualitative change in house prices (70%+ crash). I don't know what will happen with house prices. If houses get much cheaper I might buy one, if not I won't. Taking the 'buying a house' option off the table mentally makes it easier to stay in the moment and focus on making good choices for today in terms of jobs and rentals. It would be easier to live with this situation without being completely furious if the laws governing private renting were more tenant friendly and the private rental stock was better quality.

Edited by Dorkins

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Lots of estate agents laying off staff round my way.

Lots of properties on the market. Lots of "sold subject to contract" EA hype. Not many actual sales going through.

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It will be suspended animation until some "shocks" come along. The next one due is a massive swing to UKIP and calls to get away from the clutches of the EZ. My rent is down, food prices are dropping, travel is cheap if you commute mainly within a city. If you have massive mortgage debt and an insecure job it may be worrying times I suppose, but the PTB have done a good job of keeping the pretence up so far, many are still just interested in their next I-phone not their next meal. IMO though the HPI mechanism is broken, it doesn`t work on the scale it used to, all we are seeing now is stats skewed upwards by the massive London Bubble.

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I focus at the lower end of the market in Norwich. Reality seems to hit a few vendors of leasehold flats and have noticed some price reductions. Freehold houses don't seem to come down very much at all, however.

Quite a few homes for sale have sitting tenants on AST contracts. Obviously BTL wasn't the path to riches they originally thought it would be. :P

Noticed quite a few repos too, like this unusual bungalow that I have previously spotted up for rent. £141k seems like a strong offer for a 1 bedroomed home like this: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-47488517.html?premiumA=true

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......all of us will end up reaching a maximum level on the housing scale, the higher the prices get the more likely there will be more stuck living with what they have got for many years longer or stuck living for life with what they have got.......certain areas are worse than others......the only way out for a growing proportion of the population is to move somewhere else to attain something far better for less. ;)

Edited by winkie

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Prices are pretty flat in the Hampshire market town where I live, maybe a small upwards trickle but not much, there's a definite reduction in properties for sale.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=SO41

I think prices will stay pretty flat for a long long time to come.

Interest rates will begin to move up in 2015, but not by much. Wage increases will probably start to creep ahead of inflation in 2016, but again not by much. In the meantime we'll see the steady growth of long term renting/decline of owner occupation, as property continues to accumulate in fewer and fewer hands.

I talk to couples with children in this area who are renting well into their 30's and 40's, they're not happy about renting but neither do they seem particularly angry. They're drifting along, one day at a time, hoping they'll inherit or that something will turn up, trying not to think too much about it, there's an air of acceptance and resignation.

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Lots of people are getting resigned to things as with the LibLabCon party there's no choice on house prices/housing and lots of other things. Even if the branches had a policy that claimed to be different and beneficial on house prices they would renege on it if they got into Downing Street. The Conservative and LibDem branches of the cartel proved that for certain with their policies since 2010. NuLabour branch proved it before 2010.

The branches of that party are all in for higher house prices but with house prices so high it's crazy to buy now even if in the event house prices end up being reported as going higher.

Edited by billybong

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The young I know and talk to have no desire or will to buy now or in the foreseeable future....so I agree about the goalposts narrowing making it far harder to score, therefore better putting all energy into what can be achieved not into something where they feel all hope has been removed from their hands, no longer in their control, now totally out of their control, disenfranchised.....prices will continue to flatline. ;)

Edited by winkie

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My question: How does the UK stay out of recession? Business investment is non-existent. Exports are being squeezed by the strength of sterling. Flight capital into the London housing market is being discouraged by high prices and sterling. The Osborne-Carney echo bubble has burst decisively. Debt interest is set to hit £80bn/yr by 2017. Banking bonuses are set to fall dramatically as volatilty and yield have been compressed to nothing by continuous QE.

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Reading/wokingham area:

We are looking to buy but what a shock we are seeing every single new build under 350k selling immediately. Most decent properties are selling in weeks and some before they even get on rightmove. Prices are up 25% on new builds since early 2012.

It's absolutely mental.

We are only looking to buy as rents are also sky high and we need stability. A new build through htb which we can live in for 15-20 years seems a better option than a lifetime of renting.

With htb extended until 2020, significant investment in reading and surrounding area s, crossrail, i doubt well see more than 10% falls. Been waiting a decade now enough is enough.

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West Hampshire is still well and truly overpriced, i was willing to go to 190K for an 90m2, 3 bed detached house that needs 10K spending on it .... closer to 250K is what is needed, selling prices easily up 10% in a year.

Id say if interest rates were 5% a similar house would cost 125K or less.

Edited by Corruption

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It's all matterless because Vivienne Westwood announced today, on a climate change march, that within a generation earth will be uninhabitable "for all life on earth".

That could be the Black Swan event.

2hrs and 2 minutes in. The rest of that news is interesting as well - such as Devo Max won't be reneged on.


http:/

/www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04hn12s


(a generation = about 25 years - not possible to pay off the recently announced 30 year fixed rate mortgages)

Edited by billybong

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loads of price reductions in stratford

supply of houses had been rising steadily for months but seems to have leveled off to 130-140 entries (a few have multiple entries for the same property)

i heard through the grapevine that this one achieved £412,500 at auction, which is confusing because similar properties with similar prices have been on the market for months

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-45988981.html

must be money laundering

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Another Hampshire has been some dropping prices and a lot coming on the market, but its still to overpriced.

I hope to buy next year, but that depends on how the market is.

At the moment a entry level 3 bed costs anywhere between 215k to 300k

0b6c794660.jpg

The thing is this is not exactly anything special. The kind of house that maybe someone in a low to mid-tier job would go for. I earn pretty good money (senior enterprise IT bod) and this is out of my reach.

That's crazy.

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I watch (vaguely) two areas; Mid Hants where I currently live and East Anglia where I have family. Both have flatlined for the the past couple of years according to Rightmove graphs. Which is slightly at odds with my instinct; I thought I'd been seeing a slight uptick - but maybe that's just been in asking prices.

I'm OK; it's my children I worry for. But even then, tbh, houseprices are a lesser worry than the equalisation that globalisation is bringing, the (lack of) national energy security, and the environmental degradation caused by single planet carrying 9, 10, 11, ++ million humans.

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My OH and I are currently trying to sell our respective houses in northern Lincolnshire. The market is completely dead and seems to be getting worse if anything. Nothing much selling, nothing much coming on the market. The same houses sit on Rightmove week after week, month after month. The only way to sell quickly seems to be to send it to auction and accept whatever price you get on the day.

I've knocked 15% off my asking price in the past four months and still no real interest! Even our EA admitted the market is 'very quiet indeed' in this area. They said they'd hardly had anyone through their door all summer.

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Sounds like a new slogan for a change




'yearning for change'

http://

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2763327/Ed-Miliband-kicks-Labour-Party-conference-year-s-general-election-saying-Britain-needs-new-plan-families.html

'And we know that yearning for change is there right across our country. Constitutional change matters, but we know that something else matters even more: this country doesn't work for most working people and we, the Labour Party, are going to change it.

What a change. Change the record.

Sometimes it's just the tedium of change slogans. Their lack of real imagination never seems to change.

Edited by billybong

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Just reminds me of this :lol::lol::lol: Bottom Live scene


Edit: Don't know how to embed

Edited by chronyx

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